Running Fast But Standing Still:
After 18 Months Of Governing, Conservatives Make No Progress On The Public Opinion Front

Toronto, ON - Despite controlling the government benches and federal agenda for the past 18 months, Stephen Harper's Conservative government has failed to improve its support among the electorate. A new Ipsos Reid poll finds that the Conservatives, at 34% support nationally, are down slightly from the results of the General Election in January of 2006 (36%), and have continued to hover around that level of support since taking office a year and a half ago. As the federal Conservative caucus meets in Charlottetown this week to reflect on the past 18 months and to plan the government's agenda for the fall session of parliament, some Tories may be scratching their heads to figure out what they have to do to pull away from the Liberal Party that follows closely at 32% support nationally. With Harper's government still some distance away from majority territory--which typically requires a minimum of 40% support across the country--it appears that Canadians might have to brace for many more sessions of minority government politics.

The New Democratic Party, under the leadership of Jack Layton, has also settled in at 17% support, which is the same level of support it has received since the middle of May. While the Green Party under Elizabeth May continues to enjoy nearly twice the level of support that they received in the 2006 Federal Election, it appears that their growth has levelled off at 8% support nationally.

The Bloc Quebecois has dropped 2% points nationally, receiving the support of 8% of Canadians, or 33% of Quebecers, which represents a decline of 4% points within that province. However, the Liberals and the Conservatives still trail the Bloc in Quebec, but are tied at 23% support--a 5% point gain for the Liberals, and a modest rebound of 2% for the Tories.

Regionally, Conservatives support remains highest in Alberta, although it has dropped significantly from 74 percent on May 31 to 56 percent this week. Since June, the conservatives have rebounded by only 1 percentage point. In British Columbia, the Conservatives have pulled slightly ahead of the Grits, but the Conservatives continue to trail the Liberals in vote-rich Ontario, with the Liberals receiving 40%, and the Conservatives 35% support. Perhaps falling victim to the recent campaign against the Harper Government regarding the Atlantic Accord, the Conservatives weakest support is in fact in Atlantic Canada, receiving the support of 31% Atlantic Canadians, which is 10% points behind the Liberals. The Conservatives have dropped substantially in Saskatchewan/Manitoba, receiving only 35% support compared to the 50% support that they were receiving in June.

Although rebounding slightly from the dip in support that was likely caused by the recent campaign against the Harper Government regarding the Atlantic Accord in June, the Conservatives weakest support (aside from Quebec) is still in Atlantic Canada, whey they have the support of 31% of Atlantic Canadians, which is 10% points behind the Liberals.

The Liberals continue to enjoy a marked lead over the Conservatives in Atlantic Canada, but have slipped from 45% support in June to 41% currently. They have increased their support in Quebec by 5% points, now claiming the same amount of support among Quebecers as the Conservatives--23%. Aside from these slight differences, Liberal support across Canada has remained stagnant.

The NDP are the strongest in Saskatchewan/Manitoba, receiving 33% support, and only trailing the Conservatives by 2% points. This represents an increase for the NDP of 11% points since June, and suggests that no one party dominates the Prairie Provinces in terms of levels of support. The NDP fares the worst in Alberta (12% support) and Quebec (13%). These numbers represent a 4% point increase of support within Alberta, and a 5% dip in support within Quebec.

By gender, men favour the Conservatives (39%) over the Liberals (29%) by a 10% point margin, while women prefer the Liberals (36%) over the Conservatives (28%) by an eight-point margin. The NDP draws relatively equal support among men (16%) and women (17%), as does the Green Party (men: 8%; women: 8%). The Bloc Quebecois draws higher support among women (10%) than men (7%).

The Green Party at 8% support is consistently ahead of the 5% they received nationally in the 2006 General Election, but their increased support appears to have levelled off. Regionally, they are strongest in British Columbia and Alberta (each at 11% support), however, they have dipped 7% points in British Columbia, and 2% points in Alberta. In Ontario, the Green Party is at 8% support, a dip of only 1% point since June of this year. They have failed to break through in Saskatchewan/Manitoba, receiving just 4% support from residents in those provinces.

By age, Conservatives continue enjoy an advantage among respondents 55 years and older (38%) as compared to the 18-to-34-year-old cohort (25%). The Liberals enjoy comparable amounts of support from among all age categories. The NDP draws higher support among those 18 to 34 years of age (21%) than among those aged 35 or older (15%). Support for the Green Party is higher among those 18 to 34 years of age (10%) and 35 to 54 years (9%) than among those 55 years and older (5%). Support for the Bloc is highest among those 18 to 34 years of age (10%), while lower among those aged 35 and older (8%).

These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted for CanWest News Service/Global News and fielded from July 24 -27, 2007. For this survey, a representative randomly selected sample of 1,000 adult Canadians was interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the aggregate results are considered accurate to within 1773.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within each sub-grouping of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to Census data.

For more information on this news release, please contact:
Dr. Darrell Bricker
President & COO
Ipsos Reid
Public Affairs
416-324-2900
[email protected]

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