Steady As She Goes: Conservatives Remain Ahead

Toronto, ON - Prime Minister Stephen Harper's Conservatives remain steadily in the lead but have not been able to push far beyond their 2006 electoral result, according to the latest poll conducted by Ipsos Reid for Canwest and Global TV.

The survey finds that 38% of Canadians would support the Conservatives if a federal election were held today compared to 31% for the Liberals. This result is just two points ahead of the Conservative's 36% turnout during the 2006 election, meaning that the Conservatives remain in minority territory. The Liberals, meanwhile, are one point higher than their 2006 electoral result. The NDP (14%), Bloc Quebecois (8% nationally and 31% in Quebec) and the Green Party (8%) each remain consistent with results over the past month.

Nowhere is the race between the Conservative and Liberal parties tighter than it is in the seat-rich, but volatile, provinces of Ontario and Quebec. In Ontario, the Conservatives (40%) and Liberals (40%) are tied as the Liberals have gained five points, while the Conservatives have dropped two points in the province over the past week. The story in Quebec is similar, with the Conservatives (25%) down three points and Liberals (24%) up four points to find themselves tied to be the federalist alternative to the Bloc (31%), which retains its favoured position among Quebec voters despite a three-point drop over the past week.

With numbers that remain close to the 2006 election results nationally, little certainty is offered to any of the parties.

Since April 19, Conservative support has improved significantly in British Columbia (47%, up 17 points), but has declined in every other region, particularly in Alberta (62%, down eight points) and Atlantic Canada (22%, down six points), followed by Quebec (40%, down three points), Ontario (40%, down two points), Saskatchewan and Manitoba (46%, down two points).

The Liberal take, meanwhile, has improved in both Ontario (40%, up five points) and Quebec (24%, up four points) and remained consistent in Saskatchewan and Manitoba (22%, up one point). Liberal support has declined in British Columbia (28%, down six points), Alberta (10%, down 4 points) and Atlantic Canada (44%, down two points).

Support for the NDP has grown in Alberta (11%, up three points), while remaining consistent in Saskatchewan and Manitoba (21%, up one point), Ontario (13%, no change) and Quebec (12%, down one point). The NDP declined in British Columbia (15%, down 12 points) and Atlantic Canada (22%, down two points).

Since April 19, support for the Green Party has improved by seven points in Alberta (15%) and Atlantic Canada (8%), three points in Saskatchewan and Manitoba (11%, up three points) and two points in both British Columbia (9%) and Quebec (6%). Green Party support has declined in Ontario (7%, down three points).

By gender, men favour the Conservatives (42%) over the Liberals (28%) by a 14-point margin. Women are split between the Conservatives (33%) and Liberals (34%). The NDP draws higher support among women (16%) than among men (12%), while the Bloc (men, 8%; women, 9%) and Green Party (men, 8%; women, 7%) divide their support more equally between men and women.

These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted for CanWest News Service/Global News and fielded from April 24-26, 2007. For this survey, a representative randomly selected sample of 1,000 adult Canadians was interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the aggregate results are considered accurate to within 177 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within each sub-grouping of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to Census data.

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