Steady As She Goes: Election Rhetoric Fails To Sway Voters

Ottawa, ON - A new Ipsos Reid poll conducted on behalf of CanWest News Service and Global Television reveals that the heated election rhetoric among politicians and pundits alike is failing to sway voters at a national level.

The Conservatives have the support of 36% of decided voters across the country (down 1 point), while the Liberals are holding steady at 29% support. The NDP has the support of 13% of decided voters (a decline of 1 point), while Green Party is receiving support from 10% of Canadians. The Bloc is also holding steady with 9% nationally, and within Quebec has the support of 37% of Quebecers (an increase of two points).

Even within vote-rich Ontario, the preferences of the electorate are quite stable. The Conservatives have the support of 37% of Ontarians (down two points), while the Liberals are at 34% support (up one point).

Certainty to Vote

Two thirds (65%) of Canadians indicate that they are `absolutely certain' to vote in the next federal election if it were called in the near future, with another two in ten (19%) suggesting that they would be `very likely' to do so. Eight percent (8%) of all Canadians believe that they would be `somewhat likely' to vote in an upcoming federal election, while few say that they are `not very' (3%) or `not at all likely' (6%) to vote.

Certainty of Vote

It appears that only four in ten (38%) Canadians have totally made up their mind with respect to which party they would be supporting in the upcoming election, indicating that they're already `absolutely certain' as to which party they will support.

However, an equal proportion of Canadians are only `somewhat certain' and say they `could change their mind before voting day' (38%). The remaining quarter (24%) indicate that they are `not at all certain' and that they're `very likely' to change their mind before voting day.

Interestingly, Conservative supporters are more likely (48%) than Liberal supporters (39%) to say that they are `absolutely certain' that they will not change their mind before heading to the polls.

Perhaps this has something to do with the fact that, at this point, only 47% of declared Liberal supporters agree they are supporting Dion and the Liberals because they `really support him and his party', while the majority (52%) of Liberal supporters are doing so because they are `voting against Harper and the Conservatives'.

Leadership Qualities

Examining which of the national Party leaders has the edge with regards to various traits reveals the following:

• When it comes to the kind of leadership that is best for Canada right now, Canadians collectively give Prime Minister Harper (41%) the edge over Stephan Dion (25%), Jack Layton (18%) or Gilles Duceppe (6%).
• In terms of the style of leadership with which Canadians most agree, Stephen Harper remains in first place with 38% of the vote. However, NDP leader Jack Layton (23%) places slightly ahead of Dion (22%), and well ahead of Duceppe.
• With regards to leaders offering a type of leadership that individuals don't personally like but will likely choose that party for an election anyways, Dion (33%) narrowly defeats Harper (31%), both of whom are well ahead of Layton (13%) and Duceppe (4%).
• But on the whole, in choosing the leader who offers the best leadership for the future and the issues that Canada will face, Prime Minister Harper (39%) places significantly ahead of Dion (24%), Layton (18%) and Duceppe (6%). Thirteen percent (13%) of Canadians, though, do not yet know.

Do Canadians Want an Election?

Thinking about whether or not they want an election, nearly two thirds (62%) of Canadians more closely agree with the sentiment that `there's no need for an election at this moment'; however, more than one third (36%) are of the opinion that `we really need an election to clean the air'.

And if an election were to happen as a result of the governing being defeated on a matter of confidence, Canadians are split on who would be to blame. While nearly one half (47%) would point the finger at the opposition parties and leaders, a similar proportion (44%) would blame Stephen Harper and the Conservatives for orchestrating their own defeat. One in ten (9%) do not know.

And thinking about some of the various reasons on which the government could fall, six in ten (58%) Canadians say that if parliament is deadlocked on the issue of Canada's future role in Afghanistan, it would be acceptable to call an election as a result. Only one half (50%) say that an election would be acceptable if parliament was stalled because of the upcoming budget and an election called as a result.

Only four in ten (40%) believe that an election triggered by the delaying of the Conservative's crime legislation in the Senate would be an acceptable trigger to cause an election.

These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted on behalf of CanWest News Service and Global Television from February 13 to February 14, 2008. For the survey, a representative randomly selected sample of 857 adult Canadians was interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 1773.35 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult population of Canada been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure that the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to Census data.

For more information on this news release, please contact:
Dr. Darrell Bricker
President & COO
Ipsos Reid
Public Affairs
416-509-8460
[email protected]

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Ipsos Reid is Canada's market intelligence leader, the country's leading provider of public opinion research, and research partner for loyalty and forecasting and modelling insights. With operations in eight cities, Ipsos Reid employs more than 600 research professionals and support staff in Canada. The company has the biggest network of telephone call centres in the country, as well as the largest pre-recruited household and online panels. Ipsos Reid's marketing research and public affairs practices offer the premier suite of research vehicles in Canada, all of which provide clients with actionable and relevant information. Staffed with seasoned research consultants with extensive industry-specific backgrounds, Ipsos Reid offers syndicated information or custom solutions across key sectors of the Canadian economy, including consumer packaged goods, financial services, automotive, retail, and technology & telecommunications. Ipsos Reid is an Ipsos company, a leading global survey-based market research group.

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