Stephen Harper Gives Alliance Slight Jump in Support in Alberta

Six in Ten (60%) Albertans are Now More Likely to Vote for Alliance With Harper as New Leader In Wake of Harper Win, Alliance (36%) Up 4 Points - Tories (22%) Down 7 - Liberals (30%) and NDP (7%) Holding Steady

Edmonton, AB - The results of an Ipsos-Reid poll conducted for QR77, CTV and the Globe and Mail show that in the wake of last week's first ballot Alliance Party leadership victory by Stephen Harper, six in ten (60%) Albertans say they are now more likely to vote for the Alliance. The effect of the Harper victory is already beginning to be felt with support for the Alliance up 4 points to 36% and support for the federal Tories down 7 points (22%) since October 2001. Meanwhile, federal Liberals (30%) and the NDP (7%) are holding steady in Alberta.

"It's still very early, but these results seem to suggest that the Alliance may have caught a second wind in Alberta," says Tim Olafson, Senior Vice-President at Ipsos-Reid in Calgary. "This is the first real increase in support we have seen for the Alliance in Alberta since the party's remarkable decline in support began right after the 2000 federal election."

These are the findings of an Ipsos-Reid poll conducted between March 21st and March 25th, 2002. The poll is based on a randomly selected sample of 800 adult Albertans. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 177 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire population in Alberta been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual provincial population according to the 1996 Census data.

Six in Ten (60%) Albertans are Now More Likely to Vote for Alliance With Harper as New Leader

Last week saw Stephen Harper elected as the new leader of the Canadian Alliance Party replacing the party's previous leader Stockwell Day. As a result, six in ten (60%) Albertans say they are more likely to consider voting for the Canadian Alliance led by Harper as opposed to Day. A quarter (25%) of Albertans say they are "much more likely" while one third (34%) are "somewhat more likely". Only one in five (21%) Albertans say they are less likely to vote for the Alliance with Harper as leader (13% "somewhat less likely", 8% "much less likely") while a slightly smaller number (17%) say Harper's election as new leader has "no impact" on their likelihood to vote for the Alliance.

Harper's victory seems to have shored up support within his own party with three quarters (74%) of Alliance supporters saying they are now more likely to vote for the party (including 41% who say they are "much more likely"). However, Harper's win might spell trouble for Joe Clark's Tories with six in ten (59%) PC supporters saying they are now more likely to consider voting for the Alliance.

  • Albertans aged 55 and older (66%) are more likely than those aged under 55 (57%) to say that they are more likely to consider voting for the alliance with Harper as leader.

In Wake of Harper Win, Alliance (36%) Up 4 Points - Tories (22%) Down 7 - Liberals (30%) and NDP (7%) Holding Steady

Albertans' reported greater propensity to vote for a Harper-led Alliance seems to be already showing up in the polls. Support for the Alliance (36%) is up 4 points since late October 2001 - the last poll taken in Alberta before Stockwell Day stepped down as leader of the Alliance in mid-December 2001. It seems that the Alliance gain came at the expense of the federal Tories (22%) who have seen a 7 point decline in support since October 2001. Meanwhile, support for the federal Liberals (30%) and the NDP (7%) in Alberta has held steady since October 2001. The difference is made up by a 5 point rise in the percent saying they would vote for "some other party" - perhaps evidence of some former Alliance and Tory supporters questioning where they might now put their support.

  • Support for the Alliance is higher among men (40%) as opposed to women (31%).
  • Support for the Alliance increases with age from 27% among 18-34 year olds, to 36% among 35 to 54 year olds and to 48% among those aged 55 and over.
    For more information on this news release, please contact:

    Tim Olafson
    Senior Vice-President
    Ipsos-Reid
    Calgary
    (403) 237-0066

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