A Tilt Towards War With Iraq
However, this does not mean that Canadians have changed their tune regarding which side of the debate they feel Canada should support. Unchanged from the previous survey, six in ten (62%) continue to believe that Canada should support the side of France/Germany/Russia which allows for more time for UN inspectors in Iraq to complete their mission. This compares to one in three (32%, down 3 points) who feel that the country should line up with the United States/Britain/Australia which calls for immediate military action to remove Saddam Hussein from power. Currently six percent say they `don't know', up from three percent recorded the pervious week.
If there is to be military action to remove President Saddam Hussein from power, Canadians continue to support a multilateral, United Nations authorised approach. When asked, six in ten (62%) say that Canada should only provide military assistance for an Iraq action if the United Nations, not just the United States, decides military action is required. One in five (18%) say that Canada should provide military assistance if the United States, without UN authorisation, decides that military action is required in Iraq. A similar proportion (18%) feels that Canada should not provide military assistance in any action against Iraq, even if authorised by the United Nations. These positions remain unchanged from polling conducted in late January and again in early February.
These are the findings of an Ipsos-Reid/CTV/Globe and Mail poll conducted between February 25th and February 27th, 2003. The poll is based on a randomly selected sample of 1,000 adult Canadians. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 177 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to the 2001 Census data.
Half (51%) of Canadians now say that the United Nations Security Council has enough evidence to authorise a military action against Iraq. This represents an increase of six points from a previous poll conducted the week of February 18th when 52% said that there was not enough evidence to authorise an attack. Currently, just over four in ten (44%) feel there is not enough evidence to authorise a military action with the ultimate aim of removing Iraq President Saddam Hussein from power.
- Regionally, the view that there is enough evidence is shared by at least half of residents in each region with the exception of Quebec (34%, up 4 points). In fact, if Quebec is taken out of the equation, agreement that there is enough evidence rises to 57%.
- Albertans exhibit the largest change with an increase of 21 points (70% from 49%) in their position that there is enough evidence.
- Men (52%, +5 points) and women (51%, +7 points) are equally as likely to agree there is now enough evidence.
- Each age group also exhibits a significant increase in agreement (18-34 year olds: 51%, +6; 35-54 year olds: 55%, +8; 55 years old and older: 49%, +7 points).
However, this does not mean that Canadians have changed their tune regarding which side of the debate they feel Canada should support. Unchanged from the previous survey, six in ten (62%) continue to believe that Canada should support the side of France/Germany/Russia calling for more time for UN inspectors in Iraq to complete their mission. This compares to one in three (32%, down 3 points) who feel that the country should line up with the United States/Britain/Australia which calls for immediate military action to remove Saddam Hussein from power. Currently six percent say they `don't know', up from three percent recorded the pervious week.
- Regionally, the biggest change in opinion occurs in Saskatchewan/Manitoba where a difference of 14 points is recorded in their position. Two-thirds (67%, up from 53%) now say Canada should support more time for UN inspectors. Currently, 28% of residents in Saskatchewan/Manitoba (down from 42%) say Canada should support the side of the United States/Britain/Australia.
- Demographically, the largest change occurs among Canadians without a high school diploma. Currently, half (48%) down from 64% believe that Canada should support more time for the UN inspectors, while four in ten (39%), up from 33%, say that we should support the American call for immediate military action. One in ten (13%) up from three percent say they `don't know' which side Canada should support.
If there is to be military action to remove President Saddam Hussein from power, Canadians continue to support a multilateral, United Nations authorised approach. When asked, six in ten (62%) say that Canada should only provide military assistance for an Iraq action if the United Nations, not just the United States, decides military action is required. One in five (18%) say that Canada should provide military assistance if the United States, without UN authorisation, decides that military action is required in Iraq. A similar proportion (18%) feel that Canada should not provide military assistance in any action against Iraq, even if authorised by the United Nations.
- These positions remain unchanged from polling conducted in late January and then again in early February.
To view the release and detailed tables, please open the attached PDF files.
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For more information on this news release, please contact:
John Wright
Senior Vice-President
Ipsos-Reid Public Affairs
(416) 324-2900
