Tories Leading Nationally, Tied With Bloc In Quebec

Toronto, ON - Prime Minister Stephen Harper's federal Conservatives retain a solid six-point margin over the Liberals according to the latest poll by Ipsos Reid for Canwest and Global TV.

The survey finds that 38% of Canadians would support the Conservatives if a federal election were held today, a six-point advantage over the 32% who would support the Liberals. This result puts both the Conservatives and the Liberals two points higher than their respective 2006 election results. Meanwhile, the NDP (14%) and Bloc (8%) are each three points lower than their respective national returns in the 2006 election, while the Greens are holding steady with eight percent support. Nine percent of the public are undecided.

Conservative support is buoyed by a solid five-point boost in Quebec, putting them in a statistical tie with the Bloc. Elsewhere, the Tories are consolidating their support in Alberta, while remaining competitive in Ontario where the Grits enjoy a three-point margin with improving results in the seat-rich province.

Conservative support remains shy of the magical 40% threshold garnered last month in the immediate aftermath of the release of the federal budget.

After Alberta (68%, up 10 points since March 26), Conservative support has improved most in Quebec (31%, up five points) where they are now tied with the Bloc (30%, down one point). Conservative support has also improved in British Columbia (39%, up two points) and Ontario (37%, up two points), although the Liberals have also improved in Ontario where they maintain a three-point lead (40%, up two points). Meanwhile, Conservative support has declined in Atlantic Canada (31%, down six points), Saskatchewan and Manitoba (39%, down three points), perhaps owing to the ongoing quarrels between the federal government and Premiers Lorne Calvert in Saskatchewan and Danny Williams in Newfoundland over federal equalization payments.

Support for the Liberals has increased by two points in Ontario since March 26 (40%) and by five points in Saskatchewan and Manitoba (29%). Liberal support has declined in Atlantic Canada (43%, down five points), Quebec (21%, down two points) and British Columbia (32%, down one point). In Alberta, the Liberal take remains unchanged (18%).

The NDP have improved since March 26 in Atlantic Canada (18%, up six points), British Columbia (22%, up five points) and Quebec (12%, up two points). The NDP have declined in Alberta (11%, down eight points) and Ontario (12%, down two points), while remaining unchanged in Saskatchewan and Manitoba (23%).

The Green Party have improved their fortunes in Atlantic Canada (8%, up five points), while declining in every other region of the country (suffering most in British Columbia where they have declined six points to 6%).

By gender, men favour the Conservatives (40%) over the Liberals (29%) by an 11-point margin. The Conservatives (37%) enjoy a much slighter margin over the Liberals (34%) among Women. The NDP draws higher support among women (15%) than among men (13%), while the Bloc enjoys higher support among men (9%) than women (6%). The Green Party divides its support equally between men (8%) and women (7%).

These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted for CanWest News Service/Global News and fielded from April 10-12, 2007. For this survey, a representative randomly selected sample of 834 adult Canadians was interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the aggregate results are considered accurate to within 177 3.4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within each sub-grouping of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to Census data.

About Ipsos Reid
Ipsos Reid is Canada's market intelligence leader, the country's leading provider of public opinion research, and research partner for loyalty and forecasting and modelling insights. With operations in eight cities, Ipsos Reid employs more than 600 research professionals and support staff in Canada. The company has the biggest network of telephone call centres in the country, as well as the largest pre-recruited household and online panels. Ipsos Reid's marketing research and public affairs practices offer the premier suite of research vehicles in Canada, all of which provide clients with actionable and relevant information. Staffed with seasoned research consultants with extensive industry-specific backgrounds, Ipsos Reid offers syndicated information or custom solutions across key sectors of the Canadian economy, including consumer packaged goods, financial services, automotive, retail, and technology & telecommunications. Ipsos Reid is an Ipsos company, a leading global survey-based market research group.

To learn more, please visit www.ipsos.ca.

Ipsos
Ipsos is a leading global survey-based market research company, owned and managed by research professionals. Ipsos helps interpret, simulate, and anticipate the needs and responses of consumers, customers, and citizens around the world.

Member companies assess market potential and interpret market trends. They develop and build brands. They help clients build long-term relationships with their customers. They test advertising and study audience responses to various media. They measure public opinion around the globe.

Ipsos member companies offer expertise in advertising, customer loyalty, marketing, media, and public affairs research, as well as forecasting, modeling, and consulting. Ipsos has a full line of custom, syndicated, omnibus, panel, and online research products and services, guided by industry experts and bolstered by advanced analytics and methodologies. The company was founded in 1975 and has been publicly traded since 1999. In 2006, Ipsos generated global revenues of 857.1 million euros ($1.1 billion USD).

Visit www.ipsos.com to learn more about Ipsos offerings and capabilities.

Ipsos, listed on the Eurolist of Euronext ЎV Comp B, is part of SBF 120 and the Mid-100 Index, adheres to the Next Prime segment and is eligible to the Deferred Settlement System. Isin FR0000073298, Reuters ISOS.PA, Bloomberg IPS:FP