Tories on the March as Ontario Grit Vote Collapses,
Bloc Falter

Ottawa, ON - Against a backdrop of ever increasing economic uncertainty and a strong attack this past week by the Prime Minister against the Bloc Quebecois, a new Ipsos Reid poll conducted on behalf of CanWest News Service and Global National reveals that that Tory traction may finally be biting.

To underscore the focus on the economy in Ontario, even Premier Dalton McGuinty overhauled his Cabinet on Thursday making it his government's number one priority--this in a week when the word `crisis' has led the news about financial institutions, stock market meltdowns, and emergency meetings with the Governor of the Bank of Canada.

One of the key messages from Stephen Harper's Conservatives has been that the Prime Ministers leadership during uncertain economic times should be chosen over the `risky' Liberals, and it may now be paying off where the votes are really needed for the Conservatives to even attempt to form a majority government.

But the vote is still volatile, and there is still a lot of ground to cover until Election Day, October 14, 2008.

It was also a bad week for Stephane Dion with his "impression ratings" falling, much like his campaign plane that was forced out of the sky due to a power generator failure.

The poll, taken from September 16 to 18, finds that Harper's Conservatives (40%) now enjoy a comfortable 13 point lead over Stephane Dion and the Liberal Party (27%). The Conservatives have gained 2 points while the Liberal Party has dropped 2 points since last week.

The NDP led by Jack Layton has gained two points to sit at 15% support among decided voters, and the Green Party, having won a podium at the Leaders debate and then boisterously launching their policy platform and cross Canada train tour with party leader Elizabeth May is down slightly (1 point) to 10% nationally. The Bloc, stinging from local rebuke, is at 29% of the vote in Quebec (down six points from 35%, holding at 8% nationally. Six percent (6%) of voters remain undecided.

These are the results in the regions:

• In seat-rich Ontario, where the biggest Conservative gains have been realized, the Tories (41%) have catapulted themselves into first place and are now running ahead of the Grits (33%), NDP (15%) and Green Party (10%).
• In Quebec, the Conservative (29%) are now tied with the Bloc (29%) for first position. The Liberals (23%) lag behind, as do the NDP and (13%) and the Green Party (6%).
• In British Columbia, the Conservatives (44%) are the front runners, while the Liberals (23%), NDP (19%) and Greens (14%) are splitting the rest of the vote.
• In Alberta, the Conservatives (61%) continue to dominate over the struggling Liberals (19%), NDP (11%) and Green Party (9%).
• In Saskatchewan and Manitoba, the Tories (51%) are also well ahead of the Grits (25%), the NDP (13%) and the Green Party (10%).
• In Atlantic Canada, a tight race is ensuing. Currently, the Liberals (33%) hold a slight lead over the NDP (29%), and the Conservatives (27%) are not far behind. The Green Party (11%) trails.

The following seat model has been rendered by Dr. Barry Kay from the Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy. The seat projection is based on an aggregate of polling data collected by LISPOP since the outset of the election, and this latest seat model has been updated to include this latest Ipsos Reid poll. Ipsos Reid does not create the seat model but contributes its findings to an aggregate base of polls used by Dr. Kay for the analysis.

With this current poll contribution to that aggregate base, the projection shows the Conservatives just shy of a majority with 152 seats for the Conservatives, 95 for the Liberals, 34 for the Bloc and 27 for the NDP. For more information about the methodology and these projections, please visit

www.wlu.ca/lispop/

Leader Impressions in Review...

The results of the poll reveal that Canadians believe that Liberal Leader Stephane Dion has had the worst week of all the party leaders, with four in ten (37%) Canadians indicating that their impressions of Dion `worsened' this week, while only 13% say their impressions of Mr. Dion `improved' over the last couple of days. This represents a net loss of 24 points (-24). One half (50%) says their impressions of the Liberal Leader have not changed.

Conservative Leader Stephen Harper fared a little better, with one third (32%) of Canadians saying their impression of the Prime Minister has `worsened' over the last couple of days, compared with 16% who say their impression of him `improved' during this time. This represents a net loss of 16 points (-16). A majority (53%), though, says that their opinions of the Conservative Leader were unchanged.

Focusing on NDP Leader Jack Layton, it appears that Canadians overall were impressed by his performance this week. Two in ten (20%) say that their impressions of Mr. Layton have `improved' over the last few days, while only 14% say that they have `worsened'. This represents a net increase of 6 points (+6). Two thirds (66%) say that their opinions of the NDP leader did not change over the last few days.

Turning to Green Party Leader Elizabeth May, 18% said they had an `improved' view of the Ms. May over the last few days, while only 9% say their opinions of her have `worsened' in the last little while. This represents a net increase of 9 points (+9), making her the most improved leader over the last few days. Three quarters (75%) of Canadians say their impressions did not change.

Within Quebec, Bloc Leader Gilles Duceppe once again had a rocky ride this week, with 32% of Quebecers saying that they have a `worsened' opinion of Mr. Duceppe, and only 10% saying that their opinions of him had `improved' over the last little while. This represents a net loss of 22 points (-22). Six in ten (58%) Quebecers indicate that their impressions of the Bloc Leader have not changed over the last few days.

Appetite for a Conservative Majority...

Thinking about the possibility that Stephen Harper and the Conservatives could win a majority following the election on October 14, four in ten (37%) Canadians say that they would be `satisfied' (17% very/20% somewhat) with this outcome, up 2 points from last week. Almost one half (49%) of Canadians, though, would be `dissatisfied' (32% very/17% somewhat) if this were to happen, down 5 points since last week. One in ten (14%) do not know what to think of this situation.

Satisfaction with this scenario, much like vote support, varies with key demographics:

• Albertans (62%) are most likely to say that they'd be satisfied with this outcome, followed by those living in Saskatchewan and Manitoba (49%), British Columbia (40%), Ontario (36%), Quebec (29%) and Atlantic Canada (22%).
• Older Canadians (45%) are much more likely than middle-aged (38%) or younger Canadians (26%) to be satisfied with this scenario.
• Men (40%) are significantly more likely than women (35%) to be satisfied if the Conservatives were to win a majority.

But While Majority (55%) Says Harper `Strong Leader', they're Not `Comfortable' with his Leadership...

Focusing specifically on Prime Minister Stephen Harper and the kind of leadership he offers, a majority (55%) of Canadians agree (33% strongly/22% somewhat) that `Stephen Harper may be a strong leader, but he's not the kind of leader that I'm comfortable with'. On the other hand, four in ten (39%) `disagree' (23% strongly/16% somewhat) with this notion, and another 5% are unsure.

• Residents of Atlantic Canada (65%) are most likely to agree, followed by those living in British Columbia (58%), Quebec (58%), Ontario (55%), Saskatchewan and Manitoba (48%) and finally Alberta (41%).
• Women (57%) are slightly more likely to agree than are men (53%).
• Middle-aged Canadians (59%) are more likely than younger (54%) or older (52%) Canadians to agree.

Strategic Voting...

One in three (35%) Canadians say that they would consider voting for a political party just to stop the Conservatives from forming a majority government, down 3 points from last week. A majority (51%) would not consider this tactic (up 4 points), while 14% say they don't know whether or not they'd consider this.

In terms of which party they would vote for in order to stop the Conservatives from forming a majority government, among those who indicated that they would consider this tactic, nearly one half (46%) says they'd vote Liberal, while one quarter (25%) would vote for the NDP. One in ten (10%) would choose to park their vote with the Bloc (38% in Quebec), and 10% would vote for the Greens to stop the Tories. Seven percent (7%) don't know.

Examining the opportunity to vote strategically by current party support gives an indication of how voters might switch later on in the election:

• Among current Green Party supporters who say they would consider voting strategically, only 59% say they would vote for the Green Party in order to do this. Most of the rest would vote for the Liberals (21%) the NDP (13%) or the Bloc (3%).
• Among NDP supporters, 82% say they'd stay with the NDP to block a Harper majority. Almost all of the rest would vote for the Liberals (10%), making them the beneficiaries of a strategic vote.
• Among Liberal supporters, 83% say they'd stick with the Liberals if they were to vote strategically.
• Among Bloc supporters, eight in ten (81%) would stay with the Bloc if they were to vote strategically.

Come Election Day, the parties will be working hard to get their voters out to the polling stations. Overall, eight in ten (82%) Canadians say that they are at least `very likely' to vote, and 65% indicate that they are `absolutely certain'. Examining certainty to vote by party, here is what the data reveal:

• Conservative supporters are the most likely to go out and vote, with 75% of those indicating that they will support the Tories suggesting that they are `absolutely certain' to vote.
• It appears that Green Party supporters are the next most likely to go cast their ballots, with 69% of them indicating that they will be `absolutely certain' to vote.
• Seven in ten (72%) Bloc supporters say they're certain to vote.
• Those supporting the other two major parties are less likely to go out and vote, however. Six in ten of those supporting the Liberals (63%) and the NDP (60%) say they're absolutely certain to vote.

Certainty of Vote...

With the Party leaders vehemently vying for the support of Canadians, attempting to steal support away from the other parties, examining one's propensity to switch their vote prior to Election Day gives insight into whose vote is more secure, and whose supporters are most likely to jump ship.

Overall, six in ten (56%) Canadians say that they're `absolutely certain of their vote choice' and won't change their minds before Election Day. On the other hand, four in ten (41%) Canadians say that their above-mentioned party is who they would vote for if an election were to be held tomorrow, but that they could very well change their mind before Election Day.

However, not all of the party's supporters are equally as sure of their vote:

• Conservative supporters appear to be the most faithful in that they (67%) are most likely to say they won't change their vote, followed by those supporting the Liberals (62%), the NDP (53%), the Bloc (50%) and the Green Party (41%).
• It appears that the most flaccid support comes from those supporting the fringe parties, with 58% of those who say that they will vote for the Green Party indicating that they could very well change their mind before Election Day. Next in line for jumping ship are Bloc supporters (50%), those supporting the NDP (47%), the Liberals (38%) and finally the Conservatives (33%).

History Informs the Process...

In order to better understand how voters are voting, examining for whom they voted last year allows one to determine whose voters are switching parties between elections, and whose are staying put.

It appears that the biggest erosion in support is from among former Liberal supporters. Only 64% of those who say they voted Liberal in the last election are once again voting Liberal. This is compared to 68% of former NDP voters who say they are still voting NDP, 68% of Green Party voters who are still inclined to vote NDP, 69% of Bloc voters from 2006 voting this way in 2008, and 88% of Conservative Party voters who are once again voting for the government.

These are the findings of two Ipsos Reid polls conducted on behalf of CanWest News Service and Global Television:

The first poll was conducted from September 16 to September 18, 2008. For the survey, a representative randomly selected sample of 999 adult Canadians was interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 1773.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult population of Canada been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure that the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to Census data.

The second poll was conducted from September 17 to September 18, 2008. This online survey of 1013 Canadian adults was conducted via the Ipsos I-Say Online Panel, Ipsos Reid's national online panel. The results are based on a sample where quota sampling and weighting are employed to balance demographics and ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the actual Ontarian population according to Census data. Quota samples with weighting from the Ipsos online panel provide results that are intended to approximate a probability sample. An unweighted probability sample of this size, with a 100% response rate, would have an estimated margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what the results would have been had the entire adult population in Canada been polled.

For more election commentary, please visit our blog at: http://election.globaltv.com/blogs.aspx

For more information on this news release, please contact:
Dr. Darrell Bricker
President & CEO
Ipsos Reid
Public Affairs
416-509-8460
[email protected]

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