Tories (41%) Open 18-Point Lead Over Liberals (23%), Lead in Every Region Except Quebec

March 28, 2024 – The Conservatives have opened an 18-point lead over the Liberals, who still appear at risk of losing their second-place position. The Conservative lead has grown by 2 points in four months, underscoring the challenges that the incumbent Liberal government is facing. The Conservatives lead in every region except Quebec where the Bloc has the lead. Substantial advantages are seen in all other regions where the Liberals no better than second in every region (e.g., BC [42% CPC vs. 22% LPC] and Ontario [43% CPC vs. 24% LPC]). Given these results, if the election were held tomorrow, the Conservatives would be well positioned to form a majority government, particularly if vote splitting between the NDP and Liberals is widespread.

Key to Conservative fortunes is that they lead the Liberals among every key demographic studied. The Conservatives maintain a dominant position over the Liberals among men (25-point lead) and women (11-point lead). Their advantage among those aged 35+ is substantial (21 points), but they also hold a 10-point lead over the Liberals among those aged 18-34, who used to be the core constituency of the Liberal Party, but now favour the Conservatives and the NDP.

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between March 15th to 18th, 2024, on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of 1,000 Canadians aged 18+ was interviewed online. Quotas and weighting were employed to ensure that the sample’s composition reflects that of the Canadian population according to census parameters. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within ± 3.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Canadians aged 18+ been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error. 

For more information on this news release, please contact:
Darrell Bricker
CEO, Ipsos Global Public Affairs
+1 416 324 2001
[email protected]

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