Trudeau’s Departure Hasn’t Changed Liberal Prospects

Liberal prospects are unchanged since  Trudeau’s resigned on 6 January 2025. Support for the Liberals has remained flat while Conservative support continues to increase (46%, +1 point since late December 2024). Conservatives are still on track to win a decisive victory if an election were held tomorrow, leading by 26 points against the Liberals. The Conservative lead is consistent across age, gender, education level and income groups.

Thinking about Justin Trudeau's resignation as leader of the Liberal Party, from what you have seen, read or heard, would you say that you…

Eight in ten  (81%) Canadians approve of Trudeau’s resignation, with over half (51%) saying they “strongly approve.” Seven in ten (70%) Liberal supporters approve of Trudeau’s resignation compared to 88% of Conservative voters, 88% of BQ voters and 76% NDP voters. 
Two in ten (19%) disapprove of Trudeau’s resignation. Three in ten (30%) Liberal voters disapprove of his resignation compared to 12% of Conservatives.

Almost four in ten (38%) Canadians give Trudeau an F when rating his overall performance as Prime Minister. Only 4% give him an A. Following the resignation, 23% of Canadians say they would now consider voting for the Liberal Party in the next election without Trudeau at the helm. Just three points higher than the current vote intention, this suggests a new leader may not be able to immediately resurrect party fortunes.

Chrystia Freeland is the most favoured potential replacement for leader of the Liberal Party, with three in ten (29%) having a positive impression of her. A quarter (24%) of Canadians would be likely to consider voting for the Liberal Party if Chrystia Freeland becomes the next party leader. Among current Liberal voters, Freeland (67%) leads Mark Carney (53%) and Mélanie Joly (48%). However, a majority of Canadians (86%) believe the Liberals will still struggle at the next election and Trudeau’s resignation is too little, too late (77%).

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between January 6 and 7, 2025, on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of 1,000 Canadians aged 18+ was interviewed online. Quotas and weighting were employed to ensure that the sample’s composition reflects that of the Canadian population according to census parameters. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within ± 3.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Canadians aged 18+ been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Darrell Bricker, PhD
CEO, Ipsos Global Public Affairs
+1 416 324 2001
[email protected]

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