Trudeau's Trajectory Trending Upward as Presumptive
New Liberal Leader Creates Three-Way Race

Toronto, ON - As Liberals gather this weekend to elect their new leader - presumably Justin Trudeau, son of former Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau - a new Ipsos Reid poll has revealed that the affable, charismatic man has the potential to turn-around recent Liberal misfortunes, effectively creating a three-way race nationally and in key battleground provinces. Moreover, he trumps the other leaders in many key leadership attributes.

Working under the assumption that Justin Trudeau is leader of the Liberal Party of Canada, if an election were to happen tomorrow, the Liberals would receive 32% of the decided vote (up 6 points since November of 2012 and 14 points since June), and are now statistically tied with the Harper Conservatives who would garner 31% of the popular vote (down 3 points since November). The NDP, under Thomas Mulcair, continues to pull back from their all-time high of 38% in June of last year, and now rests at a still-competitive 27% of the vote (down 3 point since November), rounding out the three-way race that is developing on a national level. Nationally, the Bloc Quebecois, under Daniel Paille, would garner 6% of the vote (down 1 point), while 4% would be split between Elizabeth May's Green Party and various other parties (up 2 points).

The tight cluster of support at the national level is also reflected in the key battleground provinces of Canada:

• In seat-rich Ontario, the Conservatives (35%) and Liberals (35%) are in a dead heat, while the NDP is not too far behind at 26% support province-wide.
• In Quebec, the Liberals (32%) are effectively challenging the NDP (32%) and are now tied front-runners, while the Bloc is in a close third position (26%). The Conservatives are in trouble in Quebec with a resurgent Liberal Party, and would now receive only 9% of the popular vote if an election were held tomorrow.
• In British Columbia, the NDP (36%) maintains the lead, with the Conservatives (31%) and the Liberals (28%) nipping at their heels.

Interestingly, there is very little difference in party preference between men and women. However, there are some key differences among age demographics.

• Among those aged 55+, the Tories (38%) continue to have the edge over the Grits (30%) and the NDP (24%).
• Among those aged 35 to 54, the Liberals (32%) have a slight lead over the Conservatives (29%) and the NDP (25%).
• Among young adults aged 18 to 34, the Liberals (37%) and NDP (33%) have a dominant position over the Conservatives (22%).

While Trudeau and the Liberal Party appear to be earning back the support of Canadians, they appear to be ahead of the game among the social media elite. Among those who are active on social media, the Liberal (34%) lead over the Tories (26%) and the NDP (27%) widens. Moreover, nearly half (47%) of those who are active on social media believe Justin Trudeau would make the best Prime Minister, well ahead of both Harper (29%) and Mulcair (25%).

Plurality Believes Trudeau Would Make the Best Prime Minister, Trumps Harper and Mulcair on Most Leadership Attributes...

Likely explaining the rising fortunes of the Liberal Party, the poll reveals that Justin Trudeau, the presumptive new leader of the Liberals, trumps the Prime Minister and Leader of the Official Opposition on most leadership attributes.

In fact, four in ten (41%) Canadians believe that Justin Trudeau, who will lead the 3rd place party in the House of Commons, would make the best Prime Minister of Canada (this compares with just 13% who said the same thing about Michael Ignatieff in April of 2011). Trudeau beats out the current Prime Minister, Stephen Harper, as 36% believe he would make the best Prime Minister (42% thought so in 2011). In third position among the major leaders, 23% believe Thomas Mulcair would make the best Prime Minister (compared to 45% of Canadians who thought the same about Jack Layton two years ago).

On virtually every leadership attribute, with the notable exception of managing the economy, Trudeau trumps his rivals:

• Someone you can trust: 42% Trudeau, 33% Harper (down 5 points since 2011), 25% Mulcair
• Someone who will get things done: 42% Trudeau, 35% Harper (down 9 points), 23% Mulcair
• Someone who has what it takes to lead Canada: 40% Trudeau, 37% Harper (down 8 points), 23% Mulcair
• Someone who wants to be Prime Minister for the right reasons: 43% Trudeau, 32% Harper (down 6 points), 25% Mulcair
• Someone who has a vision of Canada that you can support: 43% Trudeau, 33 % Harper (down 6 points), 23% Mulcair
• Someone who will provide an open, responsible and ethical government: 42% Trudeau, 30% Harper, 28% Mulcair
• Someone who will best lead and represent Canada on the world stage: 43% Trudeau, 36% Harper, 21% Mulcair
• Someone whose values best represent my own: 41% Trudeau, 33% Harper, 26% Mulcair
• Someone who will promote democracy and its processes effectively: 42% Trudeau, 31% Harper, 27% Mulcair

However, the economy and jobs continue to be the number-one issue for Canadians, out-flanking every other issue - including healthcare. On the key trait of someone who is best to manage during tough economic times, Harper (43%, down 7 points) beats out Trudeau (34%) and Mulcair (23%). There is also one dubious distinction that the Prime Minister continues to hold. When asked to choose from among the three major party leaders, half (50%) believe that it is Harper who has a hidden agenda (up 5 points), while just one quarter believe the same about Mulcair (26%) or Trudeau (25%).

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These are some of the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted between March 28th to April 3rd, 2013, on behalf of Postmedia News and Global Television. For this survey, a sample of 1,053 Canadians, from Ipsos' Canadian online panel was interviewed online. Weighting was then employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within +/- 3.4 percentage points had all Canadians adults been surveyed. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Darrell Bricker, PhD
CEO
Ipsos Reid
Public Affairs
416.324.2001
[email protected]

About Ipsos Reid

Ipsos Reid is Canada's market intelligence leader, the country's leading provider of public opinion research, and research partner for loyalty and forecasting and modelling insights. With operations in eight cities, Ipsos Reid employs more than 600 research professionals and support staff in Canada. The company has the biggest network of telephone call centres in the country, as well as the largest pre-recruited household and online panels. Ipsos Reid's marketing research and public affairs practices offer the premier suite of research vehicles in Canada, all of which provide clients with actionable and relevant information. Staffed with seasoned research consultants with extensive industry-specific backgrounds, Ipsos Reid offers syndicated information or custom solutions across key sectors of the Canadian economy, including consumer packaged goods, financial services, automotive, retail, and technology & telecommunications. Ipsos Reid is an Ipsos company, a leading global survey-based market research group.

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About Ipsos

Ipsos is an independent market research company controlled and managed by research professionals. Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos has grown into a worldwide research group with a strong presence in all key markets. In October 2011 Ipsos completed the acquisition of Synovate. The combination forms the world's third largest market research company.

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