Uniting the Right...?
But, in a head to head vote, half (51%) of Canadians say they would vote for "the federal Liberal party lead by Paul Martin" and one-third (32%) say they would vote for "a united conservative type party." The remaining 17% say they "don't know."
And, if a federal election were to be held tomorrow, the Liberals would win with 47% of the vote (45% in June). Fourteen percent (14%) say they would vote Progressive Conservative (15% in June), 13% say they would vote Canadian Alliance (14% in June), 12% say they would vote for the New Democratic Party (11% in June), 9% say they would vote Bloc Quebecois (unchanged), and 4% say they would vote for the Green Party (5% in June).
These are the findings of an Ipsos-Reid/CTV/Globe and Mail/CTV poll conducted between September 30th and October 2nd. The poll is based on a randomly selected sample of 1057 adult Canadians. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 177 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to the 2001 Census data.
Asked "if the federal Progressive Conservative Party and the Canadian Alliance Party merged and became a single party, how likely would you be vote for them in the next federal election?" nearly half (46%) of Canadians say it is likely (20% "very likely," 27% "somewhat likely") that they would vote for a merged Progressive Conservative/Canadian Alliance party in the next Federal election. A similar proportion (49%) say it is unlikely (32% "not likely at all", 17% "not very likely") that they would vote for the merged party, and 5% say they "don't know."
- Those Canadians most likely to vote for a united conservative-type party are decided Alliance voters (91%) followed by PC voters (80%). Decided Bloc Quebecois voters (29%), Green Party voters (30%), NDP voters (33%), and Liberal voters (36%) are less likely to do so.
- Residents of Alberta (70%) are most likely to vote for a united conservative-type party, followed by residents of British Columbia (55%), and Saskatchewan/Manitoba (54%). Residents of Quebec (29%), Atlantic Canada (44%), and Ontario (48%) are less likely to do so.
- Men (50%) are more likely than women (43%) to vote for a united conservative-type party.
- Canadians without a university degree (50%) are more likely than those with (37%) to vote for a united conservative-type party.
- Canadians with an annual household income of $30,000-$60,000 (51%) are more likely than those with less (41%) or more (46%) to vote for a united conservative-type party.
- Those Canadians most likely to vote for a united conservative-type party are decided Alliance voters (79%) followed by PC voters (68%). Decided Liberal voters (11%), NDP voters (29%), Green Party voters (32%), and Bloc Quebecois voters (37%) are less likely to do so.
- Residents of Alberta (51%) and British Columbia (45%) are most likely to vote for
"a united conservative-type party." Residents of Quebec (62%), Ontario (55%), Atlantic Canada (45%), and Saskatchewan/Manitoba (42%) are most likely to vote for "the federal Liberal party lead by Paul Martin."
- Canadians age 18-34 (59%) are more likely than their elders (48%) to vote for "the federal Liberal party lead by Paul Martin," while Canadians 35 or older (36%) are more likely than younger Canadians (24%) to vote for "a united conservative-type party."
- Men (38%) are more likely than women (27%) to vote for "a united conservative-type party."
- Canadians with a university degree (60%) are more likely than those without (48%) to vote for the federal Liberal party lead by Paul Martin."
- Residents of Ontario (57%), Quebec (51%), and Atlantic Canada (48%) are most likely to vote Liberal; residents of Atlantic Canada (26%), Alberta (25%), Ontario (17%), and Saskatchewan/Manitoba (17%) are most likely to vote PC; residents of Alberta (40%), British Columbia (26%), and Saskatchewan/Manitoba (19%) are most likely to vote Alliance; residents of Atlantic Canada (21%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (19%), British Columbia (18%), Alberta (12%), and Ontario (12%) are most likely to vote NDP; 38% of Quebecers say they would vote Bloc Quebecois; and residents of British Columbia (9%) are most likely to vote for the Green Party in the next federal election.
- Canadians 35 and older (16%) are more likely than younger adults (9%) to vote PC in the next federal election; Canadians 55 and older (17%) are more likely than those 18-34 (9%) or 35-54 (12%) to vote Alliance.
- Men (15%) are more likely than women (11%) to vote Alliance.
- Canadians with a university degree (56%) are more likely than those without (42%) to vote Liberal.
- Canadians with an annual household income less than $30,000 (17%) are more likely than others (10%) to vote NDP in the next federal election or Bloc Quebecois (14% vs. 8%); Canadians with an annual household income of $30,000-$60,000 (15%) are more likely than those with less (9%) or more (11%) to vote Alliance.
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For more information on this news release, please contact:
Darrell Bricker
COO & President
Ipsos-Reid Public Affairs
(416) 324-2900
