Virginia Tech Massacre: Could It Happen Here?

Toronto, ON - A new Ipsos Reid/CanWest Global poll reveals that two thirds (64%) of Canadians feel that an incident of similar magnitude to the Virginia Tech Massacre of 32 students this past Monday, where the gunman also took his own life, could `likely' happen on a Canadian campus. With Monday's shooting rampage still fresh in the minds of Canadians, and with the recent occurrence of the shootings at Dawson College in Montreal just seven months ago still lingering, along with the memory of the Montreal Massacre of 1989, two-thirds (63%) of Canadians also believe that if someone `really wants to commit a similar act here in Canada, then it's beyond the scope of anybody to do anything about it, regardless of what preventive measures are put in place'.

Interestingly, residents of Quebec are the least likely (54%) to be concerned about future killings in Canada, but are most likely (70%) to indicate that not much can be done to stop a potential killer. The divergence of opinion in Quebec may be explained by the fact that they have been through similar tragedies twice in the past two decades.

These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid/CanWest Global poll conducted from April 17 to April 18, 2007. For the survey, a representative randomly selected sample of 816 adults was interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 177 3.4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to Census data.

Two Thirds (64%) Say Shooting of Same Magnitude Could Actually Happen on One of Our Canadian Campuses...

Two thirds (64%) of Canadians feel that an incident of similar magnitude could `likely' happen on a Canadian campus. Indeed, one in five (20%) Canadians feel that an event comparable to the magnitude seen at Virginia Tech could `very likely' happen, while over twice as many (44%) feel that it could be `somewhat likely' to occur. A minority (35%) of Canadians say that the occurrence of such an event is unlikely. A small amount (8%) of Canadians believe that the occurrence of an incident of similar proportions is `not likely at all'.

• Atlantic Canada and Ontario are the most likely (72% and 70% respectively) to believe that an event of similar magnitude `could likely' occur.
• Nearly three quarters (74%) of women fear that an event of similar magnitude `could likely' occur, while just over half (55%) of men believe the same.
• Residents of Quebec, while still a slim majority, are least likely (54%) to believe that an event of a similar magnitude `could likely' occur.
• Individuals over the age of 55 are more likely (68%) than middle-aged adults (64%) or young adults (61%) to believe that an event of similar magnitude `could likely' occur.

Preventing Incidents of This Nature `Beyond the Scope' of Action...

Despite the fact that Canadians are concerned that an incident like this could occur in Canada, two thirds (63%) feel that if someone is intending on committing a crime of this nature, any actions taken to prevent such an incident are `beyond the scope of anybody to do anything about it'. One third of Canadians (34%) feel that `many things can be done to prevent this type of situation'.

• Residents of Quebec are the most likely (70%) to claim that preventing such an incident is `beyond the scope of anybody to do anything' about it. While still a minority, residents of Ontario (37%) are the strongest in their assertion that `many things can be done' to prevent this type of situation.
• Among all age groups, young adults are the strongest group in their conviction (38%) that `many things can be done to prevent this type of situation'; still, a majority (58%) believe that it is `beyond the scope' of prevention.

Quebec Differs from Rest of Nation...

The shootings of seven months ago at Dawson College, as well as the events of the 1989 Montreal Massacre, could likely have had an impact on the people of Quebec, which might well explain their difference of opinion from the rest of the country, since no other centre in the country has had to deal with a similar incident.

• People in Quebec are least concerned (55%) that a `similar incident could actually happen here', compared to the national average (66%). Similarly, they are the least-concerned (54%) that an event of a similar magnitude `could likely' occur.
• Counter intuitively, and despite their comparably lower levels of concern, Quebeckers are the most likely (70%) to think that if someone really wants to commit a crime like this, it is pretty much beyond the scope of anybody to do anything about it, regardless of what is put in place'. This differs quite notably from the national average (63%), and from those of Ontario and British Columbia (both at 59%)

These numbers might be explained by the fact that certain policing and monitoring provisions have been put in place on campuses that have relaxed the concern levels of the community; on the other hand, there is likely a greater sense of resignation as to whether you can actually do something about it in advance to prevent it and this may also have to do with the fact they've experienced it firsthand.

Arming Campus Police an `Overreaction' (63%)...

Recognizing that Canadian campus constables don't likely carry guns, when asked if campus police ought to carry side arms, a majority have rejected this notion.

• A majority (63%) believe that giving guns to university police would be an `over-reaction', and that the local police can be called to deal with serious situations.
• A minority (35%) of Canadians think that university police should be `upgraded' to be able to carry side arms enabling them to protect both themselves and students.
• Residents of Quebec are most likely (41%) to feel that Campuses should have armed constables, compared to the national average (35%).
• Young adults, the largest age group found on university campuses, are most likely to believe (67%) that arming constables would be an `overreaction'.

Long-Barrelled Gun Registry Would Have `Little Impact'...

A majority (65%) believe that the existence of a national gun registry for owners of long-barrel guns would not assist in deterring or preventing situations of this magnitude from ever occurring in Canada, Canadians appear to be sceptical.

• One third (32%) of Canadians maintain that a gun registry `would help deter and prevent situations' of this nature.
• Only 17% of Albertans think that a gun registry `would help deter and prevent situations' of this nature. In stark contrast, 39% of Quebeckers believe that a gun registry would help.
• Men are more likely (69%) than women (60%) to say that a gun registry `would have little impact in deterring or preventing situations of this magnitude from ever occurring'.
• Seniors are more likely (69%) than middle-aged (66%) and young adults (59%) to say that a gun registry `would have little impact in deterring or preventing situations of this magnitude from ever occurring'

About Ipsos Reid
Ipsos Reid is Canada's market intelligence leader, the country's leading provider of public opinion research, and research partner for loyalty and forecasting and modelling insights. With operations in eight cities, Ipsos Reid employs more than 600 research professionals and support staff in Canada. The company has the biggest network of telephone call centres in the country, as well as the largest pre-recruited household and online panels. Ipsos Reid's marketing research and public affairs practices offer the premier suite of research vehicles in Canada, all of which provide clients with actionable and relevant information. Staffed with seasoned research consultants with extensive industry-specific backgrounds, Ipsos Reid offers syndicated information or custom solutions across key sectors of the Canadian economy, including consumer packaged goods, financial services, automotive, retail, and technology & telecommunications. Ipsos Reid is an Ipsos company, a leading global survey-based market research group.

To learn more, please visit www.ipsos.ca.

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