Voter Turnout Key Factor In Election Result

Toronto, ON - After a relatively short campaign period comes to an end and the fate of Ontario's political landscape lies in the hands of Ontarians, a new Ipsos Reid poll conducted on behalf of CanWest News Service and Global Television reveals that voter turnout will likely be a key factor in determining the outcome of this election.

Although an Ipsos Reid poll released on October 6 found that the Liberals under Dalton McGuinty (at 43% support) enjoyed a sizeable lead over their chief-rival Progressive Conservative Party (at 32% support) as well as the NDP (18% support) and Green Party (6% support), two other questions now become increasingly important: how sure of their vote intentions are Ontarians; and, whose supporters will actually head to the ballot box to cast their votes, and whose supporters will decide to stay home on Election Day.

It appears that Liberal and Tory supporters are just as sure of themselves when it comes to their certainty to support these parties, with six in ten Progressive Conservative (59%) and Liberal (58%) intended voters indicating that they are `very certain' as to which party's candidate they will support on Election Day. Green party supporters are not far off, with 54% of these individuals saying that they are `very certain' as to whom they will give their support on Election Day. However, NDP support is slightly more tenuous, with only 42% of NDP supporters being `very certain' as to which party they will support on Election Day. This suggests that the modest increase in momentum that the NDP has received over the last week of the campaign might not be permanent.

In terms of one's likelihood to actually go out and vote on Election Day, the poll reveals that Progressive Conservative supporters are much more likely to go out and cast their ballot than supporters of any of the other parties, with 80% (up from 74% on Sep 28) of intended Tory voters indicating that they are `absolutely certain' to go out and vote on Election Day. This compares to 71% (up from 68% on Sep 28) of intended Liberal voters, 71% (up from 70% on Sep 28) of intended Green supporters, and 65% (steady since Sep 28) of intended NDP supporters who say the same.

Taking this into consideration, and by only examining the responses from individuals who claim to be `absolutely certain' to go out and vote, the Tories begin to tighten the gap between themselves and the Grits. Among those who are `absolutely certain' to vote, the Liberals have the support of 42% of decided voters, while the Tories have 35% support. The NDP has the support of 16% of decided Ontarians who say that they are `absolutely certain' to vote, while the Green Party has the support of 6% of these individuals. Respondents were given the opportunity to, unaided, state the primary issue that is motivating them to go out and vote for or against a particular candidate. Following their primary mention, they were given the opportunity to state two more issues, for a total of three. These three mentions were aggregated to a sum total of responses, however, the first mention is considered to be their primary issue.

As the campaign has been mostly caught up in Tory's school-funding issue, it is not surprising that education/faith-based funding continues to be the dominant issue motivating Ontarians to go out and cast their ballot. In fact, 57% of Ontarians (up from 43% on Sep 14) mention it is a motivating issue for them (top three mentions), and for 31% (up from 23% on Sep 14) it is the primary issue which is motivating them to go out and vote for or against a particular party.

Hiding in the shadow of the faith-based school funding question, healthcare received top-three mentions from 49% of Ontarians, with 21% of Ontarians mentioning healthcare as the primary issue which is motivating them to go out and vote. This represents a top-three mentions increase of 8 points, and a first-mention increase of 3 points since Ipsos Reid's poll of September 14th.

Other issues (top three mentions) which are driving Ontarians to the polls include: taxes (19%, holding steady), the environment (15%, down 3 points), trust/promises/integrity/leadership/scandals (11%, up 5 points) and the economy (7%, down 1 point).

In an attempt to capture what might happen on Election Day if voters opt to switch their votes last-minute, the results of the poll reveal that one quarter of Ontarians (25%) would support the NDP if for some reason they could not support their own party. An equal proportion would support the Green Party (25%). Just 16% of Ontarians would choose the Liberals as their second choice, while even fewer (13%) would choose the Progressive Conservative Party.

All things aside, though, no matter who wins the election, Ontarians appear to believe that they will be in good hands, with roughly equal proportions believing that Dalton McGuinty (61%), John Tory (60%) or Howard Hampton (60%) would do a `good' job as premier if their party were to win the election.

However, when asked who would do the best job, 35% of Ontarians believe that McGuinty would make the best Premier of Ontario, followed by 32% who believe that Tory would be the best man for the job. Seventeen percent (17%) of Ontarians believe that Howard Hampton would do the best job, while just 3% believe that Frank de Jong would be the best man to fill the role.

These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted exclusively for CanWest News Service and Global Television from October 2 to October 4, 2007. For the survey, a representative randomly selected sample of 800 adults living in Ontario was interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 177 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult population living in Ontario been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure that the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Ontarian population according to Census data.

Examining Second-Choice Vote...

In more detail, the following is an analysis of second-choice preferences by party support:

• Progressive Conservative supporters are most likely to mention the Liberal Party (25%) as their second choice, followed by the Green Party (24%) and the NDP (22%).
• Liberal supporters are most likely to mention the NDP as their second choice (37%), followed by the Tories (24%) and the Green Party (24%).
• NDP supporters are most likely to mention the Green Party as their second choice (39%), followed by the Liberals (31%) and the PCs (11%).
• Green Party supporters are most likely to mention the NDP as their second choice (37%), followed by the Liberals (34%) and the Progressive Conservatives (9%).

Those Most Likely To Vote...

Below is an analysis of those who are most likely to claim that they are `absolutely certain' to go out and vote on Election Day:

• South-western Ontarians are more likely (77%) than Eastern Ontarians (76%), Central Ontarians (70%), GTAers (69%) and Northern Ontarians (68%) to say that they are `absolutely certain' to go out and vote on Election Day.
• Older Canadians, aged 55 and older, are more likely (83%) than middle-aged Canadians (75%), aged 35 to 54, or younger Canadians (53%), aged 18 to 34, to say that they are `absolutely certain' to go out and vote on Election Day.
• Men (78%) are more likely than women (65%) to indicate that they are `absolutely certain' to go out and vote on Election Day.
• Individuals with a university degree (74%) are more likely than individuals with only some postsecondary education (73%) or those without a high school diploma (64%) to say that they are `absolutely certain' to go out and vote on Election Day.

For more information on this news release, please contact:
John Wright
Senior Vice President
Ipsos Reid
Public Affairs
(416) 324-2002
[email protected]

About Ipsos Reid
Ipsos Reid is Canada's market intelligence leader, the country's leading provider of public opinion research, and research partner for loyalty and forecasting and modelling insights. With operations in eight cities, Ipsos Reid employs more than 600 research professionals and support staff in Canada. The company has the biggest network of telephone call centres in the country, as well as the largest pre-recruited household and online panels. Ipsos Reid's marketing research and public affairs practices offer the premier suite of research vehicles in Canada, all of which provide clients with actionable and relevant information. Staffed with seasoned research consultants with extensive industry-specific backgrounds, Ipsos Reid offers syndicated information or custom solutions across key sectors of the Canadian economy, including consumer packaged goods, financial services, automotive, retail, and technology & telecommunications. Ipsos Reid is an Ipsos company, a leading global survey-based market research group.

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