WAR IN IRAQ: THE END GAME

Canadians are also divided as to how long the war in Iraq will last. Half (47%) believe that the U.S. coalition will eliminate Saddam Hussein and his regime by the end of April, while just as many (48%) disagree with this view. In fact, three in ten (30%) Canadians believe that the war will last for more than a year.

Canadians are not overly optimistic about the future of a democratic Iraq, with a majority (54%) who say that Iraq will not be a thriving democracy 5 years after the end of the war, while just four in ten (40%) believe this will be the case.

Despite the claims of high-tech, laser-guided smart bombs, nine in ten (88%) Canadians believe that this war will result in a lot of civilian and military casualties, while just one in ten (10%) disagrees that this will be the case.

Seven in ten (68%) of Canadians believe that the United States led coalition will find conclusive evidence that Iraq was in possession of weapons of mass destruction as suggested by American President George W. Bush.

And finally, almost nine in ten (86%) Canadians say they are following the events of the war closely, while just two-thirds (66%) of Canadians believe that overall the media is providing fair and balanced coverage of the war.

These are the findings of an Ipsos-Reid/CTV/Globe and Mail poll conducted between March 25th and March 27th, 2003. The poll is based on a randomly selected sample of 1,000 adult Canadians. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 177 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to the 2001 Census data.

Just half of Canadians (48%) believe that the U.S.-led coalition will be seen by most Iraqi's as liberators and not as enemies, while almost as many (45%) disagree with this view.

• Men (53%) are more likely than women (44%) to agree with this position.
• Middle aged (54%) and older (51%) Canadians are more likely to believe that this will be the case than are younger (38%) Canadians.

Canadians are split as to how long the war will last. Half (47%) believe that the U.S. coalition will eliminate Saddam Hussein and his regime by the end of April, while just as many (48%) disagree with this view. In fact, three in ten (30%) Canadians believe that the war will last for more than a year.

• Men (55%) are more likely to feel that the US coalition will achieve its goal of regime change by the end of April than are women (40%).
• Younger (54%) Canadians are more likely than either their middle aged (47%) or older (43%) counterparts to disagree that this will be the case.
• Quebecers (38%) are more likely than Canadians from the rest of Canada (27%) to feel that the war will last for more than a year.
• A higher proportion of younger (37%) Canadians believe the conflict will last for at least one year, compared to the views of older (28%) and middle aged (26%) Canadians.
• This view is also shared by a higher proportion of Canadians from lower (36%) and middle (34%) income households, compared to Canadians from upper income households (24%).

As for the future of a democratic Iraq, Canadians are not overly optimistic. Just four in ten (40%) believe that Iraq will be a thriving democracy within five years after the war. A majority (54%) disagrees with this proposition.

• Middle aged (44%) Canadians are more optimistic that this will occur than are older (36%) Canadians.

Despite the claims of high-tech, laser-guided smart bombs, nine in ten (88%) Canadians believe that this war will result in a lot of civilian and military casualties, while just one in ten (10%) disagrees that this will be the case.

• Women (90%) are more likely to believe this will be the case than are men (85%).
• Canadians in lower (91%) and middle (89%) income households are more likely than thos in upper income households (82%) to agree with this viewpoint.
• There is no statistical difference regarding this position between regional or age groups.

Seven in ten (68%) of Canadians believe that the United States led coalition will find conclusive evidence that Iraq was in possession of weapons of mass destruction as suggested by American President George W. Bush. Three in ten (28%) disagrees with this position.

• Residents of Atlantic Canada (79%) lead the regions in terms of agreement with this view, followed by British Columbia (76%), Alberta (75%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (72%), Ontario (65%) and Quebec (62%).
• Middle aged (73%) Canadians are more likely to agree with this position than are younger (63%) Canadians.

And finally, almost nine in ten (86%) Canadians say they are following the events of the war closely, while just two-thirds (66%) of Canadians believe that overall the media is providing fair and balanced coverage of the war.

• Men (90%) are more likely than women (83%) to say they are following the war closely.
• Canadians outside of Quebec (68%) are more likely than those in Quebec (60%) to believe the media is providing fair and balanced coverage of the war.
• Older (70%) Canadians are more likely than are younger (62%) Canadians to agree that the media has provided fair and balanced coverage of the war.
• Men (36%) are more likely than are women (26%) to disagree that the media coverage of the war has fair and balanced.

To view the release and associated detailed tables, please open the attached PDF files.

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For more information on this news release, please contact:

John Wright
Senior Vice-President
Ipsos-Reid Public Affairs
(416) 324-2900