While Two-Thirds (63%) of Canadians Say That Economy is in Recession . . .

Only 28%Say That It is Serious, One-Third (34%) Says It Is A Small Setback, And 37% Say We're Not In a Recession At All
"Job Anxiety" Inches Up Slightly to 23% -- Increasing 2 Points since November and 5 Points since October

However, Only 13% Say Their Personal Economic Situation Will Worsen Over the Next 12 Months

Toronto, ONTARIO - According to an Ipsos-Reid/Globe and Mail/CTV poll released today, two-thirds (63%) of Canadians believe that the country's economy is currently in a recession. However only 28% think that the downturn is serious and could last for more than a year, while one-third (34%) feel that it is only a small set back, and that the economy will recover within the next 6 months. Slightly over one-third (37%) do not think that Canada is in a recession at all. One percent are unsure.

The poll also indicates that just over one-in-five (23%) Canadians are suffering from `Job Anxiety'. That is, they or someone else in their household is worried about losing their job or being laid off. This rate of anxiety is up slightly over November (21%) and five points above the October 2001 level (18%).

However, only just one-in-ten (13%) feel that their own economic situation will worsen over the next 12 months. Three-in-ten (29%) expect their personal situation to improve while double that number (58%) expect their personal economic situation to remain about the same over the next year.

These are the findings of an Ipsos-Reid/Globe and Mail/CTV poll conducted between January 29th and January 31st, 2002. The poll is based on a randomly selected sample of 1,001 adult Canadians. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 177 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadians population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to the 1996 Census data.

Looking at the Canadian economy, two-thirds (63%) of Canadians believe that the country's economy is currently in a recession.

  • Three-quarters (75%) of British Columbia residents say that we are currently in a recession. This compares to 63% of Quebecers, 62% of those in Ontario and 59% of Albertans. Residents of Saskatchewan/Manitoba (55%) and Atlantic Canada (54%) are less likely to feel this way.
  • Canadians in the lowest (67%) and middle (65%) household income groups are more likely to believe the country is in a recession than those from the highest household income group (58%).
  • There is virtually no difference in the feelings of men and women, or different age groups on this topic.

However, only 28% think that the economic slowdown is serious and could last for more than a year, while one-third (34%) feel that it is only a small set back, and that the economy will recover within the next 6 months. Among those who believe that the country is in recession (63%), 44% believe that the downturn could last more than a year, while the majority (55%) say that it is only a slight setback and that the economy should recover within the next six months.

  • Of those who believe the country is currently in a recession (63%), only residents of British Columbia (75% currently in recession) are more likely to say that recovery could be a year away (55%) than say the recession will be of a short duration (44%). In comparison, in both of Alberta (59% currently in recession) and Atlantic Canada (54% currently in recession) the results of this sub-group are split - with 50% believing that the recession will be serious, and 49% saying that it will be short-lived. The views of this sub-group in Saskatchewan/Manitoba (55% currently in recession) (42% serious versus 58% short-lived) and Ontario (62% currently in recession) (43% serious versus 57% short-lived) are similar. While in Quebec (63% currently in recession), of this sub-group only 37% feel that the recession is serious and could last more than a year, while 61% believe that the downturn is a small setback and that the economy will recover within 6 months.
  • The views of the lowest (67% currently in recession) and middle (65% currently in recession) household income groups are similar as to the severity of the recession. Forty-five percent of those who feel the economy is in recession within the lowest and middle household income groups believe that the recession is serious versus 54% of who say that it will be short term. Within this sub-group in the highest household income bracket (58% currently in recession), the division is 42% who say it is a serious recession compared to 57% who view it as a small set back.

Just over one-in-five (23%) Canadians are suffering from `Job Anxiety'. That is, they or someone else in their household is worried about losing their job or being laid off. This rate is up slightly over November (21%) and an increase of 5 points since October 2001 (18%).

  • Regionally, residents of British Columbia (35%) are more likely to be worried, while those in the prairie provinces of Saskatchewan and Manitoba (12%) are the least likely to be worried about those in their households losing their jobs.
  • Canadians between 18 and 54 years of age (28%) are more likely than those 55 years of age or older (11%) to be concerned about this.
  • Canadians in the middle (26%) and lower (24%) household income groups are slightly more likely than those in the upper household income group (21%) to be worried about this possibility.

However, just over one-in-ten (13%) feel that their own economic situation will worsen over the next 12 months. Three-in-ten (29%) expect their personal situation to improve, while double that number (58%) expect their personal economic situation to remain about the same over the next year.

  • British Columbians as noted above appear to be the most concerned regarding the current and future economic environment, and the case of their personal economic situation is no different. Those in British Columbia (26%) are twice as likely as the national average (13%) to feel that their personal situation will worsen in the next 12 months. This compares to those in Alberta (18%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba and Atlantic Canada (both at the national average of 13%), and Ontario (11%). While residents of Quebec (7%) are least likely to express this view.
  • Canadians in the lowest household income group (17%) are more likely than their counterparts in the middle (13%) or upper (10%) household income groups to say that their personal economic situation will worsen over the next year. In comparison, 35% of those in the highest household income group (versus 22% in the lowest household income group) believe that their personal situation will improve over this time period.
  • Looking at the age groupings, Canadians between 18 and 34 years of age are more likely to than other age groups to say that their personal situation will improve (18 - 34: 45%; 35 - 54: 25%; 55+: 14%) and are least likely to say it will worsen (18 - 34: 11%; 35 - 54: 13%; 55+: 15%) over the next year.
  • While men and women are equally as likely (13% each) to say that their situation will worsen over the next year, men are more likely (33% versus 25% of women) to say it will improve, while women (61% versus 54% of men) are more likely to say that their personal situation will stay the same.

To view the complete release and tables, please download the attached PDF file.

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For more information on this news release, please contact:
John Wright
Senior Vice-President
Public Affairs
Ipsos-Reid
(416) 324-2900

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