Consumer Confidence among urban Indians weakens in June 2023 by 2.6 percentage points – Refinitiv-Ipsos PCSI monthly survey

Consumer confidence for urban Indians has weakened in June 2023 and slumped by 2.6 percentage points over the previous month, according to the Refinitiv-Ipsos India Primary Consumer Sentiment (“Consumer Confidence”) Index (“PCSI”). The monthly PCSI result which is driven by the aggregation of the four, weighted, sub-Indices, has fallen across all the 4 sub-indices:  the PCSI Employment Confidence (“Jobs”) Sub- Index is down 5.0 percentage points; the PCSI Economic Expectations (“Expectations”) Sub-Index  has decreased 4.0 percentage points; the PCSI Investment Climate (“Investment”) Sub-Index is down 1.1 percentage points; and the PCSI Current Personal Financial Conditions (“Current Conditions”) Sub-Index which has declined 0.7 percentage points over last month. 

Since March 2023, Ipsos India has moved the survey from covering only netizens to include an expanded offline sample, using the Ipsos IndiaBus – 1800 offline sample + 400 online sample, covering 16 cities across the length and breadth of the country, scientifically chosen, providing a more realistic picture.     

Commenting on the findings of the survey, Amit Adarkar, CEO, Ipsos India said, “Demand for jobs continues to far outstrip supply and most companies are going slow with recruitment due to the global slowdown, because of a prolonged war and high inflation levels. Unfortunately, the Indian economy is not insulated and has been impacted. The rupee has been weakening against the dollar, though India has been showing a lot of resilience through checks and balances via cheap import of oil, giving a boost to domestic consumption.”

"Citizens also are feeling the pinch around personal finances for day to day running of households and investments and savings. Travel and holiday shopping also could be upsetting the household budgets,” added Adarkar. 

How do all 29 markets stack up?

Ipsos IndiaBus is a monthly pan India omnibus (which also runs multiple client surveys), that uses a structured questionnaire and is conducted by Ipsos India on diverse topics among 2200+ respondents from SEC A, B and C households, covering adults of both genders from all four zones in the country. The survey is conducted in metros, tier1, tier 2 and tier 3 towns, providing a more robust and representative view of urban Indians. The respondents were polled face to face and online. We have city-level quota for each demographic segments that ensure the waves are identical and no additional sampling error. The data is weighted by demographics and city-class population to arrive at national average.

India is ranked fifth in the pecking order in consumer confidence across all 29 markets covered in the survey, in June 2023.

About the Study

These findings are based on data from a monthly 29-country survey conducted by Ipsos on its Global Advisor online survey platform and, in India, on its IndiaBus platform. They are first reported each month by Refinitiv as the Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI).

The results are based on interviews with over 21,200 adults aged 18+ in India, 18-74 in Canada, Israel, Malaysia, South Africa, Turkey, and the United States, 20-74 in Thailand, 21-74 in Indonesia and Singapore, and 16-74 in all other countries. The monthly sample consists of 1,000+ individuals each in Australia, Brazil, Canada, France, Germany, Great Britain, Italy, Japan, Spain, and the U.S., and 500+ individuals in each of Argentina, Belgium, Chile, Colombia, Hungary, Indonesia, Israel, Malaysia, Mexico, the Netherlands, Peru, Poland, Singapore, South Africa, South Korea, Sweden, Thailand, and Turkey. The sample in India consists of approximately 2,200 individuals of whom 1,800 were interviewed face-to-face and 400 were interviewed online. Samples in Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Poland, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, and the U.S. can be considered representative of their general adult populations under the age of 75. Samples in Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Indonesia, Israel, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, Singapore, South Africa, Thailand, and Turkey are more urban, more educated, and/or more affluent than the general population. The survey results for these countries should be viewed as reflecting the views of the more “connected” segment of their populations. India’s sample represents a large subset of its urban population — social economic classes A/B/C in metros and tier 1-3 town classes across all four zones. 

The data is weighted so that the composition of the sample in each country best reflects the demographic profile of the adult population according to the most recent census data. The global indices and averages reported here reflect the average result for all the countries and markets in which the survey was conducted. They have not been adjusted to the population size of each country or market and are not intended to suggest “total” results. Sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error. The precision of Ipsos online surveys is calculated using a Bayesian credibility interval with a survey of N=1,000 being accurate to +/- 3.5 percentage points and a survey of N=500 being accurate to +/- 5.0 percentage points. 

Refinitiv Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI), ongoing since 2010, is a monthly survey of consumer attitudes on the current and future state of their local economy, personal financial situation, savings, and confidence to make major investments. The PCSI metrics reported each month for each of the countries surveyed consist of a “Primary Index” based on all 10 questions below and of several “sub-indices” each based on a subset of these 10 questions.

The publication of these findings abides by local rules and regulations.