The India Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (Consumer Confidence), as measured by Thomson Reuters in partnership with Ipsos, has nosedived by 6.8 percentage points in March 2019.
The monthly PCSI result which is driven by the aggregation of the four, weighted, sub-indices, has seen a sharp fall across all of them: the PCSI Employment Confidence (“Jobs”) Sub-Index, is down by a glaring 7 points; the PCSI Economic Expectations (“Expectations”) Sub Index, which has sharply fallen by 10.9 points; the PCSI Investment Climate (“Investment”) Sub-Index which has dropped by 6.1 points; and the PCSI Current Personal Financial Conditions (“Current Conditions”) Sub-Index which is down by a significant 4.9 percentage points over last month.
“The survey was fielded in last week of February and first week of March, amidst tensions on Pakistan border. The near-war conflict sharply pulled down the already sliding consumer confidence. It once again proves that consumer and economy do not want war - rather afraid of it. This factor strongly clouded the fear around rise in inflation and lack of jobs. Since our respondents are largely urban – for the salaried ones it is also the time for tax saving investment, leading to temporary cash crunch. All these factors have a cascading effect, adding to pessimism,” says Parijat Chakraborty, Country Service Lines Group Leader, Public Affairs, Corporate Reputation & Customer Experience, Ipsos India.
India PCSI 2013-2019 Trend
These are findings of an Ipsos online poll conducted February 22, 2019–March 8, 2019. For this survey, a sample of 500 adults from Ipsos' India online panel aged 16-64 was interviewed online. As this is an online poll in India, representative of the online community in the country, it is not reflective of the general population; however, the online sample is valuable as they are more urban, educated and have higher incomes than their fellow citizens and often referred to as “Upper Deck Consumer Citizens” or Primary Consumers. The precision of the Thomson Reuters/Ipsos online polls is measured using a Bayesian Credibility Interval. In his case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus 5.0 percentage points for all adults.
The Thomson Reuters/Ipsos India Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI), ongoing since 2010, is a monthly national survey of consumer attitudes on the current and future state of local economies, personal finance situations, savings and confidence to make large investments.