The monthly Refinitiv-Ipsos Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI) for India, in April, has shown a downward slide of 1.1 percentage points, over March 2021. The monthly PCSI, which is driven by the aggregation of the four weighted sub-indices has dropped across all 4 of them: The PCSI Employment Confidence (“Jobs”) Sub-Index is down by 0.6 percentage points; the PCSI Current Personal Financial Conditions (“Current Conditions”) Sub-Index has fallen by 1.5 percentage points; the PCSI Investment Climate (“Investment”) Sub-Index has declined by 0.9 percentage points; and the PCSI Economic Expectations (“Expectations”) Sub Index, is down by 0.8 percentage points.
Amit Adarkar, CEO, Ipsos India, said,“The second wave of the corona virus is in full swing and it is already starting to impact normalcy and livelihoods. Businesses had started recovering post the first wave and now the new wave (which is more infectious) has already started to negatively impact the sentiment around jobs, finances for daily running of households, savings and investments and the economy. Post the aftermath of last year’s lock down, consumer sentiment had been steadily recovering till January 2021. Now we are seeing a clear reversal of consumer sentiment for the last 2 months. The govt. will need to adopt a multi-pronged strategy to offset the impact of the virus: of increasing testing, scaling up the vaccination drive (which govt is already going to start from May 1st of inoculating everyone 18+), mini containment zones for areas most affected by the virus, following the SOPs and providing the health infrastructure (beds and oxygen) to deal with the virus. Drawing upon the lessons of 2020, we can definitely tackle the situation from spiraling out of control. But at the same time, increasing ‘lock down’ posturing of various states can throw a spanner in the works.”
India PCSI 2014-2021 Trend
These are findings of an Ipsos online poll conducted between March 26, 2021 to April 9, 2021. For this survey, a sample of 500 adults from Ipsos' India online panel aged 16-64 years was interviewed online. As this is an online poll in India, representative of the online community in the country, it is not reflective of the general population; however, the online sample in is particularly valuable in their own right as they are more urban, educated and have more income than their fellow citizens and often referred to as “Upper Deck Consumer Citizens” or Primary Consumers. The precision of the Refinitiv/Ipsos online polls is measured using a Bayesian Credibility Interval. In his case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus 5.0 percentage points for all adults. For more information on the Bayesian Credibility Interval please see http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/ press release.aspx?id=5836.
The Refinitiv/Ipsos India Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI), ongoing since 2010, is a monthly national survey of consumer attitudes on the current and future state of local economies, personal finance situations, savings and confidence to make large investments. The Index is composed of four sub-indices: Current Conditions Index; Expectations Index; Investment Index; and Jobs Index.
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