A more dangerous place

On 7 October, Hamas launched an attack on southern Israel, reigniting a conflict that’s been bubbling under the surface and leading to an escalation of violence not seen in decades.

Add to this the ongoing conflict between Russian and Ukraine and tense China-Taiwan relations, and it seems the 84% of people who say that the world has become a more dangerous place over the last year may be right.

The threat of war

Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 we saw, unsurprisingly, fluctuations in a number of our global reports. Global consumer confidence took a hit, fears of nuclear, biological or chemical attacks reached an all-time high, the threat of a third world war entered the discussion, and support for refugees reached its highest level.

One year later, global perceptions of war have subdued slightly. Support for refugees globally has dropped four percentage points since its 2022 high, with 74% on average saying they agree people should take refuge to escape war or persecution. In particular, as of January 2023, two-thirds (66%) think their country should take in Ukrainian refugees, down 7pp from Spring 2022.  

In November 2022, we saw fears of a nuclear, biological or chemical attack reach 75% and become the number one threat facing the world, in the eyes of the global public. One year on and, although remaining high, fears have dipped. Just over seven in ten (71%) think there is a real risk of nuclear, biological or chemical attacks occurring over the next 12 months. It now sits in second place, behind the threat of being hacked for fraudulent or espionage purposes (74%). Although we have also seen a slight drop in how likely people think a third world war will be in the near future, people remain worried. 70% of people think it’s possible that a conflict on the scale of World War I or World War II could break out in the next 25 years.

A tense 2023

This general feeling of tension created by the war is persisting across the world in 2023. When asked whether the war in Ukraine posed a threat to their country, 61% globally agreed, with Poland ranking highest (82%). Additionally, nearly seven in ten (69%) are worried that over the next year China could take similar actions in Asia as Russia has taken in Ukraine.

In a similar vein, Russia tops the list when it comes to people’s perception of being the least likely to comply with international agreements and institutions, with over two-fifths (43%) saying this. China follows Russia, increasing four percentage points since 2022 to 35%. This mirrors what we see in the Anholt-Ipsos Nation Brands Index; globally Russia (#1) and China (#2) are the nations that people most associate with being deceitful.

Looking to the future 

The threat of further geopolitical instability remains real. Over a third (36%) of risk experts from across 50 markets see geopolitical instability as one of the risks with the biggest potential impact on society over the next five to ten years – ranking third overall, behind only climate change and cyber security risks. In Europe, it rises up the list into second place.

With ongoing conflict and unstable geopolitical relationships, coupled with consistently high worries around rising prices, we are witnessing a desire to turn inwards and focus less on the world and more on issues closer to home. Nearly four-fifths (79%) agree that given the difficult economic times, their country should focus less on the wider world and more at home.

Now, with the recent escalation in conflict between Israel and Hamas, we’re likely to see further increases in global anxieties. The November wave of our What Worries the World survey – the first wave since the events of 7 October – saw a five-point month-on-month increase in global concern about military conflict to 10% – the highest level since October 2022 – and a three-point increase in global concern about terrorism – the highest level since August 2019.

Despite this, we see signs of hope. Globally, more than three in four people (78%) say their country should work with other countries towards global goals, even if their country does not get exactly what they want.