Logjam in Federal Vote Support Breaks to Advantage of Conservatives

Toronto, ON, July 4, 2023 – The statistical tie between Canada’s top two federal parties, the Conservatives and the Liberals, has broken with the advantage going the way of the Conservatives. On the heels of recent byelections, Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative Party is gaining momentum, while Justin Trudeau’s Liberals and the NDP are starting to see their support slide as voters become weary with the long-in-the-tooth government. Meanwhile, the Bloc Quebecois has solidified itself as a permanent fixture in federal politics and support for other smaller parties remains steadfast.    

According to a recent poll conducted by Ipsos on behalf of Global News, if a federal election were held tomorrow, the Conservatives would receive 37% (up 4 points since February) of the decided vote, which gives them a slender lead over the Liberals at 32% (down 1 point). Jagmeet Singh and the NDP would take 16% (down 2 points) of the vote share and Yves-Francois Blanchet’s Bloc Quebecois is set to take 8% (up 1 point) of the national vote (34% in Quebec). The smaller parties maintain similar levels of support with the Green Party having 3% (down 1 point) support and the People’s Party claiming just 2% (down 1 point) of the vote. Around one in ten (9%, down 1 point) Canadians continue to be undecided in who they would support in a federal election while 6% of Canadians would either abstain from voting or spoil their ballot.

Regionally, the same trends witnessed since 2019 continue with the Tories maintaining solid support in the West of the country and the Grits drawing the majority of their support from the Eastern provinces with Saskatchewan and Manitoba acting as the midway point. Here are how the regional results break down:

• In British Columbia, support for the Conservatives has solidified at 37% followed by the NDP at 28% and Liberals at 24% with the Greens holding on to 7% of the vote and other parties claiming the last 3%.
• In Alberta, after their recent provincial election, the Conservatives (58%) maintain a commanding lead over the NDP (21%), Liberals (13%), the People’s Party of Canada (5%) and other parties (3%).
• In Saskatchewan and Manitoba, support for the Tories (43%) remains strong and greater than that of the Liberals (35%), NDP (17%), and other parties (6%).
• In Ontario, the Liberals (38%) and Conservatives (38%) are deadlocked followed at a distance by the NDP (18%), Greens (3%) and other parties (3%).
• In Quebec, the Liberal Party’s (37%) lead over the Bloc (34%) has shrunk while the Conservatives (15%), NDP (10%), Greens (3%), and other parties (1%) maintain their support.
• In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals (40%) continue to lead the Tories (35%), NDP (16%), PPC (8%) and Greens (1%).

Taking a deeper dive into the demographics, we see that:

• The Liberal Party’s support is split evenly among men (34%) and women (34%), while the Conservatives enjoy stronger support from men (41%) compared to women (30%). Meanwhile the NDP performs better with women (20%) than men (14%).
• The Conservative Party’s support is evenly distributed across age groups (18-34: 36%; 35-54: 34%; 55 and older: 35%) indicating the Tories may be increasing their appeal to younger voters. Meanwhile, Liberal support increases with age (18-34: 27%; 35-54: 34%; 55 and older: 38%), likely because of older voters’ appreciation for COVID-19 policies, and the NDP continues to see younger voters as its base support (18-34: 22%; 35-54: 20%; 55+: 12%).
• In terms of household income, Conservatives are stronger among those who tend to earn more (<$40K: 27%; $40K-<$60K: 36% vs. $60K-<$100K: 37%; $100K: 38%). The Liberals find their support split evenly among income brackets and support for the NDP leans more towards lower income voters (<$40K: 23%; $40K-<$60K: 16% vs. $60K-<$100K: 18%; $100K: 14%)
• When looking at education level, only the Liberals see a difference in where their support comes from with slightly more support from university graduates (<HS: 33%; HS: 33%; Post Sec: 30%; Univ Grad: 39%). The Conservatives and NDP see their support evenly spread among the education levels.

About the Study

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between June 19 and 20, 2023, on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of 1,000 Canadians aged 18+ was interviewed. Quotas and weighting were employed to ensure that the sample’s composition reflects that of the Canadian population according to census parameters. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within ± 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Canadians aged 18+ been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Darrell Bricker
CEO, Ipsos Global Public Affairs
+1 416 324 2001
[email protected]

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