Poilievre Running Away as Clear Favourite among Conservative Party Supporters

But only One in Four (23%, -2) Canadians Overall Views Him Favourably, Portending Potential Challenges for a Poilievre-Led Tory Party in Next General Election

The author(s)

  • Darrell Bricker Global CEO, Public Affairs
  • Sean Simpson SVP, Canada, Public Affairs
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Toronto, ON, September 6, 2022 – Among those who have pledged to vote for the Conservative Party in the next federal election, Pierre Poilievre is running away from the pool of contenders as the most favoured candidate to lead the CPC into the future, according to a new Ipsos poll conducted on behalf of Global News.

Regardless of their party membership status, a full majority (57%) of Conservative voters now have a favourable impression of Pierre Poilievre, up 8 points since a similar poll was conducted in mid July. Conversely, only two in ten (20%) have an unfavorable impression of the frontrunner, down 9 points since earlier in the summer. Just one in four (23%, +1) Tory voters say they don’t know enough about him to venture an opinion either way.

Favourable impressions of Poilievre are much higher than they are for his primary rival Jean Charest, who is now equally as likely to have made a favourable (38%, -7) as unfavourable (38%, +3) impression on Conservative Party supporters. Indeed, Charest appears to be the most divisive candidate among those who indicate they will vote blue in the next election.

Notably, Scott Aitchison (23%, +5) and Leslyn Lewis (32%, +9) have both left a more favourable mark on Conservative voters recently than they did in July while at the same time reducing unfavourable perceptions (-5 for Aitchison, -6 for Lewis).  However, for Aitchison (56%), Baber (56%) and Lewis (46%), roughly half of Conservative voters still don’t know enough about who they are to say whether they like them or not.

Conservative Voters’ Perception of Leadership Candidates

Candidate

% Favourable

% Unfavourable

% Don’t know enough about them

Scott Aitchison

23% (+5)

21% (-5)

56% (--)

Roman Baber

16% (-4)

28% (+2)

56% (+2)

Leslyn Lewis

32% (+9)

22% (-6)

46% (-3)

Jean Charest

38% (-7)

38% (+3)

24% (+4)

Pierre Poilievre

57% (+8)

20% (-9)

23% (+1)

While Pierre Poilievre continues to be the hands-down favourite among Tory voters, among the general population of Canadians perceptions are less flattering. Fewer than one in four (23%) Canadians have a positive impression of Poilievre (down 2 points since July), outweighed by the one in three (35%) who have an unfavourable perception of the Tory frontrunner, unchanged since July.  Moreover, in both Ontario (22% favourable vs. 35% unfavourable) and Quebec (21% favourable vs. 38% unfavourable) public opinion is solidly against him. Compounding these challenges, Liberal (53%) and NDP voters (50%) are united in their dislike of Poilievre, suggesting limited opportunity to recruit new voters to the Conservative ranks.

Canadians’ Perception of CPC Leadership Candidates

Candidate

% Favourable

% Unfavourable

% Don’t know enough about them

Scott Aitchison

13% (--)

21% (-2)

66% (+2)

Roman Baber

10% (-4)

24% (-1)

66% (+5)

Leslyn Lewis

16% (+1)

23% (-3)

61% (+2)

Jean Charest

31% (-2)

33% (-1)

35% (+2)

Pierre Poilievre

23% (-2)

35% (--)

42% (+2)

Jean Charest continues to be the most preferred candidate at the national level, with one in three (31%, -2) having a favourable perception of the former PC leader and Quebec Premier. However, a roughly equal proportion has unfavourable views (33%, -1) of Charest, underscoring that he doesn’t come without his political baggage. Even in Quebec, which he would be expected to deliver as leader of the CPC, more residents are unfavourable (44%) towards him than are favourable (39%). It is interesting to note, however, that favourability towards Charest is higher among current Liberal voters (45%) than Conservative voters (38%). Similarly, unfavourable ratings are higher among Conservative voters (38%) than Liberals (29%).

Poilievre Gaining Momentum Among Tory Voters, But Charest Preferred among Canadians

If they could vote for the next leader of the Conservative Party of Canada, 44% of Conservative voters would choose Pierre Poilievre (up 10 points since July), well ahead of rivals Jean Charest (18%, -5), Leslyn Lewis (10%, +2), Scott Aitchison (5%, unchanged) and Roman Baber (4% +3). Two in ten (19%) are unsure of who they would vote for, down 10 points.

Among the general population, however, Charest (21%, -1) bests Poilievre (16%, +1), Lewis (6%, +2), Baber (5%, +3) and Aitchison (4%, unchanged), while one half (50%, -2) of Canadians doesn’t know who they would vote for to lead the Tory Party.

About the Study

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between August 29 and 31, 2022, on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of 1,001 Canadians aged 18+ was interviewed. Quotas and weighting were employed to ensure that the sample’s composition reflects that of the Canadian population according to census parameters. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within ± 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Canadians aged 18+ been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Darrell Bricker
CEO, Ipsos Global Public Affairs
+1 416 324 2001
[email protected]

Sean Simpson
Senior Vice President, Ipsos Public Affairs Canada
+1 416 324 2002
[email protected]

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The author(s)

  • Darrell Bricker Global CEO, Public Affairs
  • Sean Simpson SVP, Canada, Public Affairs

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