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Blue Jays Fans Equally as Optimistic as Last Year,
But Euphoria May Have Subsided Unless Jays Go to World Series

Two in Ten (19%) Say They'll Lose the Wildcard Playoff, But Most See Jays Progressing to Division Series (18%), ALCS (16%), or the World Series (Lose: 14%; Win: 21%)

Toronto, ON - The Toronto Blue Jays have qualified for the postseason two years in a row, but instead of winning the American League East as they did last year, the Jays are a Wildcard team, forced to play a one-game showdown against the Baltimore Orioles Tuesday Night. Despite having a tougher road ahead this year, Canadians appear about as confident in the Blue Jays post-season prospects this year as they did last year, although the Euphoria may have subsided given fans say they aren't willing to shell out as much money for post-season tickets this year, unless they reach the World Series, according to a new Ipsos poll conducted on behalf of Global News.

The poll, taken prior to the final series against the Boston Red Sox, revealed that nearly half (45%) of Canadians `have no idea' how far the Blue Jays will make it in October (up 4 points), closely mirroring the 48% (up 4 points) of Canadians who say they are not a fan of baseball at all. Among those who have an opinion, 11% believe they won't make the playoffs (down 4 points, and no longer a possibility after winning 2 of 3 games in Boston), 19% believe they'll be eliminated in the Wildcard playoff (up 4 points), and 18% (up 3 points) think they'll win the Wildcard but be eliminated (by Texas) in the Division Series.

A majority of those with an opinion think the jays will make it past the ALDS: 16% think they'll be eliminated in the American League Championship Series as was the case last year (unchanged), while 35% think they'll win the ALCS and make it to the World Series (down 3 points), whether they lose (14%, down 2 points) in the World Series or win (21%, down 1 point).

Women are far more optimistic in a World Series victory than men (28% vs. 16%, respectively). Men (23%) are more likely than women (14%) to believe that the Blue Jays will lose the Wildcard game. Regionally, those most optimistic for a World Series victory are British Columbians (33%), followed by Albertans (28%), Atlantic Canadians (23%), Ontarians (22%), residents of Saskatchewan and Manitoba (13%) and Quebec (12%).

The success of the Blue Jays once again this year doesn't appear to be creating any more baseball fans among Canadians compared to last year: one in ten (12%, up 1 point) call themselves die-hard fans, while 6% (down 2 points) confess that they're on the bandwagon. Others say that they'll watch a Blue Jays game now and then but they're a casual fan at most (28% down 2 points), while 5% are a fan of another baseball team, not the Blue Jays (5%, down 2 points). Nearly half (48%) of Canadians are not a fan of baseball at all (up 4 points). Not surprisingly, Ontarians (18%) are most likely to call themselves die-hard fans, followed by Atlantic Canadians (13%), British Columbians (12%), residents of Saskatchewan and Manitoba (10%) and Quebec (4%).

Those who are Blue Jays fans were asked how much money they would pay, hypothetically, in order to be in person at the Rogers Centre to witness the following post-season games. The results suggest that some of the euphoria of last year's success - given the two-decades long drought - may have subsided, as fans aren't willing to pay quite as much to be in the stands this year as last year, unless the Jays have more success than they did last year and make it to the World Series:

  • 160Canadian baseball fans would pay $65 on average to attend the Wildcard game, which is down from $87 last year. One in ten (9%) would pay more than $100 for a ticket.
  • 160In order to be in attendance at the final game of the ALDS (which won't be held at Rogers Centre this year), Canadians would pay $92, down from $108 last year. One quarter (26%) would pay more than $100 for a ticket.
  • In order to witness Game 7 of the ALCS (which won't be held at Rogers Centre this year), Canadians would pay $130, down from $147. Four in ten (37%) would pay more than $100 for a ticket.
  • 160In order to be at Game 7 of the World Series, which would be played at Rogers Centre, fans would pay $243, which is up from $220 last year. Nearly half (47%) would pay more than $100 for a ticket, 22% would pay more than $300, and one in ten (10%) would pay more than $500 for one ticket to the final game of the World Series.
These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between September 28 to 30, 2016 (prior to the Boston Red Sox Series) on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of 1,002 adults from Ipsos' Canadian online panel was interviewed online. Weighting160was then160employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval.160 In this case, the poll is accurate to within +/ - 3.0 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Canadian adults been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Sean Simpson
Vice President
(416) 324-2002
Ipsos Public Affairs
[email protected]

About Ipsos

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