British Columbians Bullish on Home Prices but Concerned About HST Impact

Vancouver, BC - Boosted by a slowly improving economic outlook and positive momentum in home sales, half (52%) of British Columbians expect home prices in their local community to increase in the next year, up significantly from one-in-five (20%) who said the same in January. This represents a major shift in consumer sentiment towards BC's housing market, exuding significant optimism as we move closer to 2010.

According to the soon-to-be released Ipsos Reid BC Home Buyers report, British Columbians are forecasting a 4.8 percent increase in home prices in their community in a year, a significant increase from early 2009 when a 3.0 percent decline was expected. Three- in-ten (30%) predict prices will remain the same while one-in-ten (12%) predict prices will be lower. This is compared to 32% who predicted prices would be the same and 42% who predicted prices would be lower in January.

• Residents of the Lower Mainland foresee a small but significantly larger increase (5.6 percent on average) compared to what those in the rest of BC expect (3.6 percent on average).

Confidence is up and market conditions have improved for Buyers, with three-quarters (76%) indicating that it's a good ("very good" or "somewhat good") time to buy a home, up from 71% in January.

According to Hanson Lok, Senior Research Manager for Ipsos Reid in Vancouver, "Consumers are regaining confidence and believe that the real estate market has begun a slow recovery. "

At the same time, the impending HST has added a new area of concern for prospective home buyers and seems poised to have major implications on sales of new construction. Among prospective home buyers (those indicating that they are likely to purchase a home in the next two years), four-in-ten (40%) indicate that the HST will have an impact on their home purchase plans, while 25% are unsure about the impact and 35% say it will make not have an impact. Among those who expect the HST to have an impact, half (49%) indicate that they will now delay their purchase until they see how the HST will affect the market, while the same number (49%) are more likely to consider a re-sale home and 43% are likely to spend less on a home than previously expected.

Hanson Lok adds, "The HST has created uncertainty among prospective buyers, with some choosing to wait and see how the tax will impact the market. Certainly there are also those who now feel that re-sale is a more attractive option."

Look for more results about Home Buyers in Ipsos Reid's BC Home Buyers Report. This comprehensive report is aimed to profile, track and measure the attitudes of homes buyers in the province, twice a year. Metrics include home purchase criteria/motivators, economic outlook/confidence, demographic and psychographic profiling as well as mortgage measures.

The results of this poll are based on a sample of 1,643 British Columbians where quota sampling and weighting are employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the actual BC population according to Census data. Quota samples with weighting from the Ipsos online panel provide results that are intended to approximate a probability sample. Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online polls because they are based on samples drawn from opt-in online panels, not on random samples that mirror the population within a statistical probability ratio. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error. However, an unweighted probability sample of this size, with a 100% response rate, would have an estimated margin of error of +/-1.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had the entire adult population in British Columbia been surveyed.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Hanson Lok
Senior Research Manager
Ipsos Reid
778-373-5041

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