Canadians' Economic Outlook
Canadian consumers' confidence continues to strengthen. Indeed, one-half of Canadians now expect the national economy to improve during the year ahead, the highest level of optimism recorded since the Angus Reid Group began tracking this economic measure ten years ago.
These findings emerged from a National Angus Reid Poll conducted among a representative cross-section of 1,503 Canadian adults between September 23rd and 30th, 1997.
As for provincial economic expectations, Albertans continue to have by far the most bullish outlook -- fully three-quarters expect their province's economy will improve further during the coming year.
Outlook for the Canadian Economy
- Canadians are becoming increasingly optimistic about the prospects for the national economy. Fully one-half (50%) of those surveyed last week said they expect the Canadian economy will improve during the next 12 months, four times the number worried that economic conditions will worsen (12%). Four in ten (37%) predicted no change. (Table 1)
- The current level of optimism is 5 percentage points higher than it was in July and 11 points higher than at the start of the year. This continues a trend which, in general, has seen the number of Canadians expecting improvement increase slowly but steadily since January 1996, when pessimists outnumbered optimists by a two-to-one margin (35% to 18%).
- Regionally, residents of Alberta (59%), Manitoba/Saskatchewan (56%) and Ontario (55%) are the most optimistic about how the Canadian economy will fare in the year ahead, in sharpest contrast to their counterparts in Atlantic Canada (37% expect improvement). Optimism is also relatively more prevalent among men, the university educated and the affluent, six in ten of whom foresee better times ahead for the national economy over the coming year.
Outlook for the Provincial Economies
- On the provincial economic front, Albertans remain far more bullish than Canadians living in other parts of the country. Fully three in four (74%) surveyed Alberta residents said their provincial economy will get even better during the year ahead. This figure is the highest yet recorded since the Angus Reid Group's tracking of this economic measure began in 1990. (Table 2)
- Optimism also reaches the one-half mark in neighbouring Manitoba/Saskatchewan (49% anticipate improvement versus only 9% who forecast a downturn) and in Ontario (51% versus 16%). Optimism is much more muted in the Atlantic region (35% versus 23%).
- Meanwhile, residents of B.C. and Quebec are fairly divided on whether their respective province's economy will improve or deteriorate over the coming year: British Columbia -- 30 percent improve, 25 percent get worse; Quebec -- 31 percent versus 25 percent.
This National Angus Reid Poll was conducted by telephone between September 23rd and 30th, 1997 among a random and representative cross-section of 1,503 Canadian adults.
These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to the 1991 and 1996 Census data.
With a national sample of 1,503, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results are within ±2.5 percentage points of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population.
For more information on this news release, please contact:
John Wright
Senior Vice-President
Angus Reid Group
(416) 324-2900
Bob Richardson
Vice-President
Angus Reid Group
(416) 324-2900
Christian Bourque
Directeur de recherche Affaires Publiques
(514) 877-5550
