Consumer Outlook Grows More Positive on Economic Conditions, But Anxiety Still Present,
Recovery Fragile

Toronto, ON - The RBC Canadian Consumer Outlook Index has edged three-points higher since last month, rising from 106 points to 109, its highest point since the index was established in November, on account of a more positive outlook for the economy, but the embers of economic recovery have yet to ignite a flame. The RBC CCO Index, conducted by Ipsos Reid, is a monthly national survey of consumer's attitudes on the current and future state of local and national economies, personal financial situations, savings and confidence to make large purchases and investments.

Driven slightly higher by an improved assessment of the performance of the economy in the last three months, and a more optimistic outlook over the next three months and year, the overall index has edged higher to 109 points (up 3 points), primarily driven by the current conditions sub-index which has risen from 109 points to 113. A steady improvement in outlook has helped to bump up the expectations sub-index by 2 points to 105. However, the investments index dropped 4 points to 112, as fewer Canadians expect an improvement in their own financial situation and in their ability to save.

The economic recovery is fragile, and Canadians are remaining prudent and cautious in their spending. And so while the index is creeping higher, there are pressures keeping it suppressed.

Beginning with the positive movement, nearly four in ten (35%) Canadians believe that the national economy improved over the last three months (up 4 points), and four in ten (41%) believe the economy will improve in the next three months (up 4 points). Further, Canadians are most optimistic about the prospects for the national economy in the next 12 months, with six in ten (62%) indicating they expect it to improve (up 6 points).

Focusing on their local economy, one quarter (23%) of Canadians, overall, perceive an improvement over the last three months (up 1 point), and three in ten (30%) believe it will improve in the next three months (up 2 points), with Albertans (42%) and residents of Saskatchewan and Manitoba (40%) being most optimistic about the prospects for their local economy, and Quebecers (23%) and Ontarians (28%) being least optimistic.

However, gains in the index are being partially offset by some key metrics that are holding back any significant improvement in economic conditions. First and foremost, one quarter (25%) of Canadians say that they or someone in their household is worried about losing their job, down only 1 point since last month. Further, six in ten (57%) Canadians are still delaying major purchases (up 1 point), and only two in ten (22%) expect the amount of money they have to pay their bills will increase within the next three months (down 3 point).

Just three in ten (30%) believe their personal financial situation will improve in the next three months (down 2 points). Similarly, only two in ten (22%) see an improvement in the amount of money they have left over once all their bills are paid (down 3 points), and only 16% think their ability save for things like retirement or education will improve in three months time (down 4 points).

Likely a function of the sputtering economy two in ten (21%) Canadians are planning a "staycation" in the month of March, whereby they will take time off of work but stay close to home. Atlantic Canadians (26%) are the most likely to have a staycation planned, while Quebecers (15%) are least likely. Among those who have a staycation planned, four in ten (42%) say they can't afford to travel this year, while one in ten say it's too much hassle to travel with the new restrictions (11%), that they've recently travelled (10%), or that its' important to them to support the local economy (8%). Three in ten (29%) say there is some other reason they're planning a staycation.

These are some of the findings of the Ipsos Reid RBC Canadian Consumer Outlook Index conducted between February 9-12, 2010, on behalf of RBC. For this survey, a national sample of 1,064 adults from Ipsos' Canadian online panel was interviewed online. Weighting was then employed to balance demographics and ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. A survey with an unweighted probability sample of this size and a 100% response rate would have an estimated margin of error of +/-3.1 percentage points 19 times out of 20 of what the results would have been had the entire population of adults in Canada been polled. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.

For more information on this news release, please contact:
John Wright
Senior Vice President
Ipsos Public Affairs
(416) 324-2002
[email protected]

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