Cost of Living and Healthcare are the Top Two Issues for Alberta Voters

May 4, 2023 – A new Global/Ipsos poll conducted using a dual online and phone methodology shows that the clear top two most important issues for Albertans are cost of living/affordability/inflation and healthcare. The poll also shows that Danielle Smith and the UCP are perceived as being better able to deal with issues like the oil and gas industry, the new Calgary arena, and taxes. Rachel Notley and the NDP are perceived as being better able to deal with issues like the environment/climate change, social issues/poverty/homelessness, education and healthcare.

Top Issues

Two issues stand out for voters at the start of this election campaign. These two issues are cost of living/affordability/inflation (54% selected as one of their top three issues) and healthcare (52%). Secondary issues that will be important in determining how Albertans vote include economy/jobs (25%), taxes (20%), oil and gas industry issues (17%) and crime/public safety (15%). Only 3% of voters select the new Calgary arena deal as one of their top issues.

Cost of living is the number one issue for UCP voters (57%), followed closely by healthcare (47%). Healthcare is the number one issue for NDP voters (62%), followed closely by cost of living (51%).

UCP voters are much more likely than NDP voters to care about oil and gas industry issues (32% among UCP voters vs. 6% among NDP voters), taxes (29% among UCP voters vs. 11% among NDP voters), government spending/deficit/debt (23% among UCP voters vs. 9% among NDP voters) and Alberta’s relationship with the federal government (18% among UCP voters vs. 6% among NDP voters).

NDP voters are much more likely than UCP voters to care about education (21% among NDP voters vs. 5% among UCP voters), healthcare (62% among NDP voters vs. 47% among UCP voters), integrity/ethics (19% among NDP voters vs. 6% among UCP voters) and social issues/poverty/homelessness (17% among NDP voters vs. 5% among UCP voters).

Best to Deal with Issues

We asked survey respondents about which leader/party would do the best on 14 issues. Reflecting the tightness of this election race, both leaders/parties lead on 7 issues.

Danielle Smith and the UCP have their biggest advantages on oil and gas industry issues (15 point advantage), new Calgary arena/funding (14 point advantage) and taxes (10 point advantage). Rachel Notley and the NDP have their biggest advantages on environment/climate change (13 point advantage), social issues/poverty/homelessness (10 point advantage) and education (9 point advantage).

Looking at the top two issues that matter to voters, Smith and the UCP have a narrow lead on cost of living/affordability/inflation (4 point advantage), while Notley and the NDP have a bigger lead on healthcare (8 point advantage).

Which of the leaders/parties do you think would do the best job on each of the following issues?	Smith /UCP	Notley /NDP	Morishita /AB Party	Don’t know	Lead
Oil and gas industry issues	43%	28%	5%	24%	UCP +15
New Calgary arena/funding	33%	19%	5%	42%	UCP +14
Taxes	39%	29%	6%	27%	UCP +10
Government spending/deficit/debt	37%	30%	6%	26%	UCP +7
Economy/Jobs	39%	33%	5%	23%	UCP +6
Crime and public safety	35%	30%	5%	30%	UCP +5
Cost of living/affordability/inflation	37%	33%	5%	25%	UCP +4
Housing supply/affordability	34%	36%	5%	26%	NDP +2
Alberta’s relationship with the federal government	34%	37%	5%	24%	NDP +3
Integrity/ethics of the party’s leader/candidates	31%	35%	6%	29%	NDP +4
Healthcare	32%	40%	4%	23%	NDP +8
Education	29%	38%	5%	28%	NDP +9
Social issues/poverty/homelessness	29%	39%	5%	27%	NDP +10
Environment/climate change	26%	39%	6%	29%	NDP +13

Note:  Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding

Leadership Qualities

We asked survey respondents about which leader is best described by 11 leadership characteristics. On 8 of the 11 attributes, neither leader really stands out, as each is picked within 4 percentage points of the other.

The three exceptions include two negatives and a positive for Danielle Smith. She is seen as more likely to be someone who has a hidden agenda (9 points higher than Notley) and as someone who will say anything to get elected (6 points higher than Notley). However, Smith is also more likely to be seen as someone who will get things done (5 points higher than Notley).

Which of the party leaders do you think is best described by each of the following statements?	Danielle Smith	Rachel Notley	Barry Morishita	Don’t know	Lead
Someone who has a hidden agenda	40%	31%	3%	26%	Smith +9
Someone who will say anything to get elected	40%	34%	5%	21%	Smith +6
Someone who will get things done	37%	32%	5%	26%	Smith +5
Someone who has the perseverance and skill to succeed in defending Alberta’s interests in Canada	37%	33%	6%	24%	Smith +4
Someone who will spend taxpayers’ money wisely	31%	29%	7%	32%	Smith +2
Someone who gives me hope about the future	32%	32%	6%	30%	Tie
Someone whose values best represent my own	32%	32%	6%	31%	Tie
Someone who I would like to sit down and have a drink with	24%	26%	9%	41%	Notley +2
Someone who has the character to be a premier Albertans can be proud of	32%	34%	6%	28%	Notley +2
Someone who I can trust	27%	30%	6%	37%	Notley +3
Someone who will keep their election promises	28%	32%	6%	35%	Notley +

Note:  Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding

 

About the Study

These are the findings of a Global/Ipsos poll conducted between April 26 and 30, 2023. For this survey, a sample of 1,200 Alberta eligible voters was interviewed, including 800 online and 400 through CATI phone surveys (mix of cell and landlines). These data have been weighted by age, gender, region and education to reflect the Alberta population according to Census figures. The precision of Ipsos polls conducted fully or partly online is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the overall results (1,200 interviews total) are accurate to within ±3.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all eligible voters been polled. Some questions are based only on the sample of 800 online respondents and are accurate to within ±3.9 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error. Ipsos abides by the disclosure standards established by the CRIC, found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

To complete the CATI phone surveys, a total of 3,673 individuals were asked to participate. Call outcomes break down as 400 completes (11%), 2,775 refusals (76%), 182 not eligible (5%), 245 callbacks (7%) and 71 language barriers (2%).

© 2023, Ipsos Limited Partnership

This polling release and the data contained in it are the sole and exclusive property of Ipsos. They are NOT designed to support any election outcome or prediction model and no license to use the polling release or the data is either granted or implied by their publication. Ipsos does not endorse, and has no responsibility for the accuracy of, the result of any predictive model that incorporates this polling data. Furthermore, any use of this information to produce polling aggregations or election models without Ipsos’ written permission will be considered a violation of our intellectual property, and Ipsos reserves the right to take appropriate legal action.

 

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Kyle Braid
SVP, Ipsos Public Affairs

+1 778 373 5130
[email protected]

 

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