Fewer Canadians Believe Harper Government Working Well (40%, -4 Points), While Seven in Ten (70%) Believe the Liberal Party Will Someday Return to Power (+14 Points)

Toronto, ON - In a year that showed remarkable highs and lows for the Conservative government - ranging from a blockbuster free-trade deal with the EU to a Senate scandal that just won't go away - fewer Canadians (40%) now than in December of 2012 (44%) `agree' that the `majority government in Ottawa is working well'. While the slide of four points is relatively modest, what is more troubling for the Tories is that most Canadians are convinced that the Liberals will some day return to power, having elected a new leader and surged past the Tories, according to Ipsos polls released earlier this year.

While in December of last year, before Trudeau was elected to the Liberal leadership, just 56% of Canadians `agreed' (13% strongly/44% somewhat) that `the Liberal Party will some day return to power as Canada's government'. But the Liberals have gone from third to first in the polls in the span of a year. Currently, seven in ten (70%) `agree' (21% strongly/49% somewhat) that the Liberals will someday return to the government benches.

Last year, things were looking bleak for the opposition parties. Half (51%) of Canadians at the time `agreed' (14% strongly/37% somewhat) that `the three parties in opposition will not be able to beat the Conservatives on their own, so they should work out an arrangement so they don't compete against each other and split the anti-Conservative vote'. This year, just 43% `agree' (8% strongly/35% somewhat) that the opposition parties won't be able defeat the Tories, while most (57%) `disagree' (18% strongly/39% somewhat) - likely killing any idea of a coalition, merger or other agreement.

Comparing Harper, Trudeau and Mulcair...

Four in ten (39%) Canadians `agree' (9% strongly/30% somewhat) that they `share Prime Minister Harper's values when it comes to where Canada should be headed', down 5 points since last year. This compares to 47% who `agree' (8% strongly/39%) that they share Thomas Mulcair and the NDP's values, and 48% who `agree' (12% strongly/36% somewhat) that they share Justin Trudeau and the Liberals' values.

Stephen Harper has made the economy and economic management the cornerstone of his tenure as Prime Minister and he may still have the edge on this file over his rivals. Fewer than half (45%) of Canadians `agree' (7% strongly/38% somewhat) that they trust Thomas Mulcair and the NDP to do a good job of managing Canada's economy', while a majority (55%) `disagree' (23% strongly/31% somewhat). A similar proportion (44%) `agrees' (11% strongly/34% somewhat) that they trust Justin Trudeau and the Liberals to do the same, while 56% `disagree' (23% strongly/32% somewhat).

Reflecting on Prime Minister Harper...

Four in ten (43%) Canadians `agree' (9% strongly/34% somewhat) that `Prime Minister Harper's approach to politics has been good for Canada', down 1 point from last year. A majority (56%), however, `disagree' (27% strongly/30% somewhat) that his approach has been good for Canada. Fewer (39%) Canadians `agree' (7% strongly/32% somewhat) that his approach has been good for Parliament', down 5 points since last year. Most (61%) `disagree' (28% strongly/33% somewhat), up 5 points in a year. Four in ten (41%) Canadians `agree' (12% strongly/29% somewhat) that Prime Minister Harper should run for office again during the next election set for 2015', down only 2 points since last year. Still, six in ten (59%) `disagree' (33% strongly/26% somewhat), believing he should move on.

Reflecting on the Opposition...

Four in ten (44%) Canadians `agree' (13% strongly/31% somewhat) that `the Liberal Party is ready to be Canada's next government - suggesting that the Liberals still have room to grow in the polls. But slightly fewer (39%) `agree' (11% strongly/28% somewhat) that `Justin Trudeau is ready to be Prime Minister', while six in ten (61%) `disagree' (28% strongly/33% somewhat).

And while still a little green, it appears that Canadians believe Trudeau's ideas are fresh and new. A majority (52%) `agrees' (12% strongly/40% somewhat) that `Justin Trudeau's policies and ideas are innovative and forward-thinking', while a minority (48%) `disagrees' (19% strongly/28% somewhat).

Perhaps helping to explain their recent dip in the polls, 38% `agree' (9% strongly/29% somewhat) that the NDP is ready to be Canada's next government', fewer than the 44% who say the same about the Liberals. Conversely, six in ten (62%) `disagree' (27% strongly/35% somewhat).

Economy Vs. Environment...

The Harper government's priority since the recession has been the economy before anything else, and some have argued that this has had a detrimental impact on the environment. Just four in ten (37%) `agree' (6% strongly/31% somewhat) that `the Harper government has struck the right balance between economic growth and environmental protection and management', showing no change from last year, while 63% `disagree' (25% strongly/37% somewhat), also showing no change.

Further, a similar proportion (37%) `agree' (5% strongly/32% somewhat) that `the Harper government is doing a good job protecting Canada's environment' down 2 points, while nearly two in three (63%) `disagree' (29% strongly/34% somewhat).

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted between December 9th to 13th, 2013, on behalf of CTV News. For this survey, a sample of 2,535 Canadians from Ipsos' Canadian online panel was interviewed online. Weighting was then employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case the poll is accurate to +/- 2.2 percentage points of the entire Canadian adult population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

John Wright
Senior Vice President
Ipsos Reid
Public Affairs
416.324.2002
[email protected]

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