Half of Canadians Would Join Preparation Program If Invasion Occurs
Four in 10 (37%) Canadians think Canada’s military could defend Canada against the U.S., despite the fact that a strong majority (77%) trust NATO allies in Europe. This suggests Canadians would rely on NATO in the event of U.S. aggression. While 56% dismiss the possibility of such an invasion as bluffing, a similar portion remains concerned about the potential for military action. In the event of an invasion, 53% would prioritize reducing casualties, even if it means surrendering. Despite this, half of Canadians are willing to engage in formal military preparedness training, with 43% ready to fight personally, and 38% support mandatory military service for youth.
Canadians 55+ are more likely than younger Canadians to say they would be willing to fight to resist invasion and to believe NATO allies would come to Canada’s defense, while those 18-34 are more likely to be fearful that Trump will use miliary force against Canada and to believe that Canada should minimize casualties even if it means surrendering, but also that Canada’s military could defend itself against the U.S. if necessary. Men are more likely than women to think the Trump administration is bluffing but would be willing to fight or join a training program, while women are more likely to be confident in NATO’s aid and Canada’s military, but also to be fearful of Trump’s threats.
Mark Carney emerges as the most trusted leader among Canadians to handle a potential military threat from the U.S., with support from 50% of the population. In contrast, Pierre Poilievre garners trust from only three in 20 Canadians (16%). Meanwhile, 8% trust both leaders equally, and a quarter (26%) express trust in neither.
These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between January 22 and 23, 2026, on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of 1,001 Canadians aged 18+ was interviewed online. Quotas and weighting were employed to ensure that the sample’s composition reflects that of the Canadian population according to census parameters. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within ± 3.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Canadians aged 18+ been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.
For more information on this news release, please contact:
Darrell Bricker, PhD
CEO, Ipsos Global Public Affairs
+1 416 324 2001
[email protected]
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