Majority (90%) Say Former PM Chrйtien Should Come Clean and Testify on Sponsorship Program
Jean Chrйtien (29%) receives the most blame from Canadians for the sponsorship program scandal. Paul Martin (22%) and former Public Works Minister Alfonso Gagliano (16%) also shoulder a substantial amount of public blame. A small group (7%) believe that the Pubic Servants who worked at the Department of Public Works are most at blame for this scandal. One in ten (12%) are inclined to believe that all of these people share the blame for the Sponsorship Program debacle. 14% or respondents do not offer an opinion on the topic.
Canadians want a complete investigation into the sponsorship program debacle before the next federal election is held. A majority of two thirds (65%) are of the opinion that Mr. Martin should not call a federal election until an investigation is complete. A third of Canadians (32%) are of the opposite opinion, as they say that the government can call an election before the issue is fully investigated, while 3% say they do not know.
Sheila Fraser's audit report has sent Paul Martin's Liberal government reeling into freefall, as Liberal voter support drops to 35% (down 13 points since January 15th, and down four points since February 12th). In the wake of the sinking Liberals the Conservatives have gained ground, with Conservative support rising to 27% (up 8 points since January 15th, and up 3 points since February 12th). In contrast, the NDP (17%, down 1 point since February 12th), the Bloc Quebecois (11%, up 1 point from February 12th), and the Green Party (5%, unchanged since February 12th), have seen little change in support levels.
A majority of two thirds (65%) say they are aware of the Auditor General's report (30% somewhat aware, 35% very aware). In contrast, the remaining third (34%) is not aware of the audit report (13% not very aware, 22% not at all aware). 1% says they do not know.
Two thirds (67%) believe that Prime Minister Paul Martin either knew something (34%) or knew a lot (33%) about the Sponsorship Program. This is juxtaposed against one quarter (26%) who believes that Martin either knew a little (17%) or knew nothing (8%) about the scandal. One in ten (8%) offer no opinion on this issue.
These are the findings of an Ipsos-Reid/Globe and Mail/CTV poll. The polling for questions dealing with the Federal vote were conducted between February 11th and February 15th 2004, and the question concerning the Auditor General's report was conducted between February 10th and February 15th. The Federal vote questions are based on a randomly selected sample of 1055 adult Canadians during this time frame. With a sample of this size, the results for each question are considered accurate to within 177 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The questions on the Auditor General's report are based on a randomly selected sample of 737 adult Canadians during this time frame. With a sample of this size, the results for each question are considered accurate to within 1773.6 percentage points, 19 times out of 20 what they would have been had the entire adult population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to the 2001 Census data. Nine in Ten (90%) Want Chrйtien To Come Clean and Testify
An overwhelming majority of nine in ten (90%) feel that the former Prime Minister Jean Chrйtien should be called to testify and explain what he knows about the Sponsorship Program at a public inquiry. One in ten (8%) say that he should not be summoned for such a hearing. 2% of respondents stated that they `do not know.'
- Atlantic Canadians (95%) and Albertans (93%) are the most likely to believe that Chrйtien should come testify before such an inquiry, while Quebecers (91%) and Ontarians (90%) and British Columbians (88%) fall in the middle. Residents of Saskatchewan/Manitoba (82%) are the least likely to hold this opinion.
When Canadians are asked whom they think is most to blame for the sponsorship scandal, three in ten (29%) point to former Prime Minister Jean Chrйtien. In comparison, one fifth (22%) blame Paul Martin, and one in seven (16%) assign blame to former Public Works Minister Alfonso Gagliano. A very small group (7%) believe that the Pubic Servants who worked at the Department of Public Works are to blame for this scandal. One in ten (12%) are inclined to believe that all of these people share the blame for the sponsorship program debacle. It would appear that there is a cloud of confusion surrounding this issue for many Canadians, as a substantial minority of one in seven (14%) say they do not know.
- Ontarians (31%) have the highest percentage of people who blame Chrйtien for the scandal, followed by British Columbians (30%), Albertans (29%), Quebecers (27%), residents of Saskatchewan and Manitoba (26%), and Atlantic Canadians (23%).
- The older are more likely to blame Chrйtien than the young (26% 18-34, 29% 35-54, 34% 55+).
- One quarter of British Columbians (24%) blame Paul Martin most for the sponsorship scandal, while two in ten in Ontario (23%), Quebec (22%) and Atlantic Canada (20%) point to Martin. 16% of Albertans say Chrйtien is most to blame, only 7% in Saskatchewan/Manitoba.
- Those who blame Martin are significantly more likely to live in urban areas than in rural areas (23% vs. 13%).
A majority of two thirds (65%) are of the opinion that Mr. Martin should not call a federal election until an investigation is complete. A third of Canadians (32%) are of the opposite opinion, as they say that the government can call an election before the issue is fully investigated. 3% of respondents say they do not know.
- Seven in ten residents of Atlantic Canada (70%), Ontario (67%) and Alberta (67%) believe that there should not be an election until the completion of an investigation, while six in ten in Saskatchewan/Manitoba (63%), Quebec (61%) and British Columbia (61%) believe so.
- Women are more inclined than men to believe an election should be held off until an investigation is completed (69% vs. 61%).
The bottom has apparently not yet been reached for Paul Martin's Liberals as Liberal voter support continues to crumble from the aftershocks of Sheila Fraser's damning audit report. Liberal vote support has dropped by 13 points since one month ago, as 35% of decided voters would cast their ballot for the Liberal party if an election were held tomorrow (down four points since February 12th). The Conservatives have been successful in gobbling up a substantial amount of new supporters, as Conservative vote support has risen to 27% (up 8 points since a month ago, and up 3 points since February 12th). Vote support for the New Democratic Party has remained stable at 17% (down one point from February 12th), as has support for the Bloc Quebecois (11%, up one point from February 12th), and the Green Party (5%, unchanged from February 12th).
- The Liberals have taken the biggest hit in Quebec, where voter support has dropped to 31% (down 9 points since February 12th), followed by Alberta (20%, down 8 points), Ontario (41%, down 6 points), and Saskatchewan/Manitoba (29%, down 4 points). British Columbia has stayed the same (27%), while the Liberals have actually gained in Atlantic Canada (47%, up 5 points).
- The Conservatives have gained most in Alberta (58%, up 8 points), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (28%, up 5 points), and Quebec (10%, up 5 points). And have stayed stable in Ontario (26%, up 1 point), Atlantic Canada (32%, down 1 point), and British Columbia (32%, down 3 points).
- The NDP has gained somewhat in British Columbia (27%, up 5 points) and has lost somewhat in Atlantic Canada (12%, down 7 points).
- The Liberals have lost ground in urban areas (36%, down 6 points), while the Conservatives have also lost in rural areas (31%, down 5 points).
- Awareness is highest in British Columbia (70%), followed by Ontario (68%), Atlantic Canada (67%), Alberta (66%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (57%), and Quebec (50%).
- Men are more likely to be aware than women (69% vs. 60%).
- Level of awareness also rises with age (43%, 18-34, 69% 35-54, 83% 55+).
- Those with the higher levels of education are more likely to be aware of the report (47% less than high school, 58% high school, 63% some post secondary or college diploma, 74% University degree or more).
- Awareness is also positively related to income level (45%
Two thirds (67%) believe that Prime Minister Paul Martin either knew something (34%) or knew a lot (33%) about the Sponsorship Program. This is juxtaposed against one quarter (26%) who believe that Martin either knew a little (17%) or knew nothing (8%) about the scandal. One in ten (8%) offer no opinion on this issue.
- No notable demographic trends are apparent for this issue.
-30-
For more information on this news release, please contact:
Darrell Bricker
President & COO
Ipsos-Reid
(416) 324-2900
