Toronto, ON - As the Alberta election campaign enters its final weekend before E-Day, a new Ipsos poll conducted for Global News and Corus Entertainment has revealed that the NDP are taking full advantage of a divided right and would claim victory over the incumbent PC and challenger Wildrose, but that 48% of Albertans admit that they could still change their mind before E-Day and vote for a different party.
If the election were held tomorrow, 37% of decided voters would vote for the NDP led by Rachel Notley who has secured the progressive vote in Alberta. In comparison, the right is split between Brian Jean's Wildrose Alliance Party at 26% of the decided vote, and Premier Jim Prentice's Progressive Conservatives at 24%. If these two parties were united, a combined party would likely cruise to victory - reminiscent of the advantage the Federal Liberals had during the 1993 federal election.
The Liberal Party of Alberta under David Swann would receive 9% of the vote, while the Alberta Party led by Greg Clark would receive just 3% of the vote. One percent (1%) would vote for some other party. One in ten (8%) remain undecided with just days left before going to the polls.
The wildcard in this race is that only 52% of those who chose a party say that they're `dead set' in their voting choice and nothing will change their mind, while 48% say they `still haven't fully made up their mind and could switch to another party'. Examining this by party reveals that Wildrose supporters are most committed to their party, while PC and NDP support is softer. Liberal and Alberta Party supporters are most likely to switch their vote.
- NDP supporters -- 51% have made up their mind, while 49% could change their mind.
- Wildrose supporters - 64% have made up their mind, while 36% could change their mind.
- PC supporters - 54% have made up their mind, while 46% could change their mind.
- Liberal supporters - only 25% have made up their mind, while 75% could change their mind.
- Alberta Party supporters - 31% have made up their mind, while 70% could change their mind.
No Clear Favourite as Second Choice...
The data reveal that there is no clear favourite for second choice, if Albertans do end up changing their mind before Election Day. Overall, 21% would vote Wildrose second, while similar proportions would vote for the NDP (18%) or Liberals (17%) second. Fewer would choose the PCs (12%) second or Alberta Party (9%) second, while 5% would vote for some other party. Nearly two in ten (15%) don't know who they would vote second or would not vote (2%).
Examining where support might move and from which party shows the following:
Among NDP supporters - 31% would choose the Liberals second, while others would choose the Wildrose (29%), PCs (14%), Alberta Party (8%) or some other party (5%) second. One in ten (12%) don't know who they'd switch to, and 1% just wouldn't vote in this case.
Among Wildrose supporters - 33% would vote for the NDP second, while others would vote for the PCs (21%), Alberta Party (15%), Liberals (9%) or some other party. 5% wouldn't vote, and 16% don't know who they'd switch to.
Among PC supporters - 33% would switch to the Wildrose, while 19% would vote for the NDP second. The Liberals (13%), Alberta Party (7%) or other parties (4%) would not seriously benefit from PC vote switchers, while 23% of PC voters don't know who they would choose second, and 2% wouldn't vote if they changed their mind.
Among Liberal supporters - 38% would change to the NDP, while 20% would vote Wildrose second, 17% the PCs second, 8% some other party and 2% the Alberta Party. Two in ten (15%) don't know who they would switch to.
Among Alberta Party supporters - half (49%) would vote NDP second, followed by the Liberals (19%), Wildrose (15%), PCs (10%), or some other party (4%). Four percent (4%) don't know who they would vote for second.
Half of Albertans Think PCs will Win...
Despite the fact that the NDP have a solid lead heading into the final days of the campaign, half (50%) of Albertans still think the Progressive Conservatives will win the election on Tuesday once all the votes are counted. Only 21% actually think the NDP will win, while fewer think the Wildrose will win (17%). Albertans don't believe the Liberals (3%), Alberta Party (2%) or some other Party (2%) has much of a chance of winning the election, and 5% doesn't know who will win.
Interestingly PC voters are most likely to think their own party will win (90%), but fewer Wildrose (50%), NDP (47%), Liberal (29%) or Alberta Party (26%) voters actually think their own party will win the Election. Given that PC voters are most likely to think they'll win, this could turn into complacency on Election Day if many stay home believing victory is secure.
Deeper Dive on the Vote...
Examining the vote among key demographic groups within the province reveals:
- In Edmonton, the NDP (53%) have a strong lead over the PCs (21%), Wildrose (12%), Liberals (11%), and the Alberta Party (3%).
- In Calgary, a close race ensues among the PCs (29%), NDP (29%) and Wildrose (25%), while the Liberals (9%), Alberta Party (6%) and others (2%) trail.
- In the rest of Alberta, the NDP (34%) and Wildrose (33%) are close, with the PCs (22%), Liberals (8%), Alberta Party (2%) or other parties (2%) behind.
- Among women, the NDP (39%) have a strong lead over the PCs (25%), Wildrose (21%), Liberals (10%), Alberta Party (4%) and others (1%).
- Among men, the NDP's (35%) advantage over the Wildrose (31%) is smaller, while the PCs (22%), Liberals (8%), Alberta Party (3%) and others (2%) lag.
- Among the key aged 55+ community, the race is very tight among the Wildrose (33%), NDP (31%) and PCs (29%), while the Alberta Party (3%), Liberals (2%) and other parties (1%) are well behind.
- Among those aged 35 to 54, the NDP (34%) has a slight edge over the PCs (30%) and Wildrose (20%), while the Liberals (11%), Alberta Party (2%) and others (2%) are behind.
- Among the 18 to 34 demographic, the NDP (46%) lead over the Wildrose (25%) and PCs (12%) is huge - but this group doesn't show up to vote like the older cohorts do. The Liberals (12%), Alberta Party (5%) and other parties (1%) are not competitive.
These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between April 27th and 29th, 2015 on behalf of Global News and Corus Entertainment. For this survey, a sample of 761 adults living in Alberta was interviewed. 301 interviews were conducted by live operator telephone interviewing (including 20% cellphone sample), and 460 interviews were online from the Ipsos I-Say panel. Weighting was then employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. The precision of polls where online interviewing was employed is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within +/ - 4.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Albertan adults been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.
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