As Summer Pre-Campaign Looms, Liberals Continue to Trail the Conservatives

Toronto, ON, June 14, 2019 —Just over four months until the 2019 federal election, the Conservatives now hold the lead in all provinces, apart from Quebec. According to a new Ipsos poll conducted on behalf of Global News, the lead the Liberals were holding in Ontario and BC just a few weeks ago is now gone, as Tory support continues to hold strong.

If an election were held tomorrow, the Conservatives under Andrew Scheer would receive 37% of the decided popular vote, up one point since the end of April. The Liberals led by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau would receive 31% of the decided popular vote, down one point, while the NDP led by Jagmeet Singh would take 18%, also down 1 point. Yves-François Blanchet’s Bloc Québécois would take 5% nationally, or 22% in Quebec, which is up 2 points.

Notably, nearly one in ten (9%) Canadians say they would vote for a party other than the usual suspects, most notably the Green Party (6%) or some other party (3%). Nearly three in ten Canadians (28%) have either not made up their mind (19%) or wouldn’t vote (9%).

At the end of April, the Liberals were holding the lead in BC, while they were neck and neck with the Conservatives in Ontario. Despite this, the Liberals now hold the lead in only Quebec:

• In Ontario, the Conservatives surge ahead (38%) of the Liberals (32%), while NDP (22%) and other (8%) support remain consistent;
• In Quebec, the Liberals hold their lead (37%), followed by the Conservatives (24%), the Bloc (22%), the NDP (10%) and others (6%);
• In British Columbia, the Conservatives (33%) now lead, while support for another party is at 21%. The Liberals have held onto 28% of the vote, followed by the NDP with 18%;
• In Alberta, the Tories (55%) continue to hold a healthy lead over the Liberals (24%), the NDP (15%) and others (6%);
• In Saskatchewan and Manitoba, the Conservatives (40%) are still well-ahead of the Liberals (31%), the NDP (16%) and others (13%);
• In Atlantic Canada, the Conservatives still lead (44%), followed by the Liberals (28%), the NDP (20%) and others (8%).  

Trudeau’s Approval Rating and Support For Re-election Hit Lowest Yet

Down two points from the end of April and fourteen points from this time last year, fewer than four in ten (36%) Canadians report that they approve (6% strongly/30% somewhat) of the Liberal government under the leadership of Justin Trudeau – this is the lowest score that Canadians have provided since electing the party into power in 2015. The majority (64%) of Canadians report that they disapprove (34% strongly/30% somewhat) of the government’s performance. Further, the proportion who believe that the Trudeau government has done a good job and deserves re-election (32%, -4) is far exceeded by the seven in ten (68%, +4) who indicate that it is time for another federal party to take over.

© 2019, Ipsos Limited Partnership

This polling release and the data contained in it are the sole and exclusive property of Ipsos. They are NOT designed to support any election outcome or prediction model and no license to use the polling release or the data is either granted or implied by their publication. Ipsos does not endorse, and has no responsibility for the accuracy of, the result of any predictive model that incorporates this polling data. Furthermore, any use of this information to produce polling aggregations or election models without Ipsos’ written permission will be considered a violation of our intellectual property, and Ipsos reserves the right to take appropriate legal action.

About the Study

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between June 5 and 7, 2019, on behalf Global News. For this survey, a sample of 1,003 adults living in Canada was polled. Weighting was then employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within ±3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Canadian adults been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Darrell Bricker, PhD

CEO, Ipsos Global Public Affairs

+1 416 324-2001

[email protected]

About Ipsos

Ipsos is an independent market research company controlled and managed by research professionals. Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos has grown into a worldwide research group with a strong presence in all key markets. Ipsos ranks fourth in the global research industry. With offices in 89 countries, Ipsos delivers insightful expertise across five research specializations: brand, advertising and media; customer loyalty; marketing; public affairs research; and survey management. Ipsos researchers assess market potential and interpret market trends. They develop and build brands. They help clients build long-term relationships with their customers. They test advertising and study audience responses to various media and they measure public opinion around the globe. Ipsos has been listed on the Paris Stock Exchange since 1999 and generated global revenues of €1,780.5 million in 2017.