Consumer Economic Confidence Remains High
Today three-quarters (73%) of Canadians describe the current economy as "good" (virtually identical to September's findings, 72%), while one-quarter (26%) considers the current economy "poor" (also virtually identical to September's findings, 27%). The highest levels of economic optimism were witnessed in March 2003 (81%) and January 2001 (81%).
Further, nearly four in ten (37%) Canadians continue to think the economy will improve over the next year or so matching robust numbers in September 2003 (37%). Nearly half (44%) of Canadians think the economy will stay the same over the next year or so (45% in September) and 18% think it will get worse (16% in September).
One in seven (14%) Canadians are likely to purchase a new or another home at this time--6% are "very likely" while 8% are "somewhat likely." These proportions have remained virtually unchanged since the question was first asked of Canadians in August of 2002, and as a result, home purchase intentions continue to boost the Economic Confidence Index.
A mere 18% of Canadians are worried about either themselves or someone in their household losing their job, unchanged from our last sounding in September. Today's findings are close to the record low levels of job anxiety witnessed in February (16%) and April (16%) of this year. Job anxiety was at its highest in September 1993 (35%). Job security also continues to boost the Economic Confidence Index.
Today four in ten (44%) Canadians are predicting an increase in interest rates, one in ten (12%) think rates will go down, and 42% think they will remain unchanged. These proportions are virtually identical to September. Positive interest rate expectations also continue to boost the Economic Confidence Index.
However, the percentage of Canadians who feel their own economic situation will improve (34%) has marginally declined since September (37%). Calamities are regionally isolated, likely a result of Mad Cow Disease, forest fires, and floods. This month's slip in the Economic Confidence Index is partially a result of this nominal decline. Personal economic outlooks has shifted from a marginally positive factor in the Economic Confidence Index to a slightly negative one.
Canadians' major purchase spending intentions continues to soften the current optimism in the economy, but to a lesser degree than it has over the past year. Today, three in ten (28%) Canadians say they expect to spend more on big-ticket items in the next year than they did last year (26% in September), the same proportion (28%) say they will spend less than they did last year (31% in September), and four in ten (44%) continue to say they will spend about the same amount (42% in September).
Everyday spending intentions also continues to soften the current optimism in the economy. Today, three in ten (31%) Canadians say they plan to spend more on everyday items than last year (36% in September), six in ten (58%) say they intend to spend about the same amount (54% in September), and one in ten (11%) say they intend to spend less than they did last year (10% in September).
These are the findings of an Ipsos-Reid poll conducted between October 21st and October 23rd, 2003. The poll is based on a randomly selected sample of 1056 adult Canadians. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 177 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to the 2001 Census data.
Please open the attached PDF files to view the detailed tables and the full release including charts.
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For more information on this news release, please contact:
John Wright
Senior Vice-President
Ipsos-Reid Public Affairs
(416) 324-2900
