Orange Crush Spreads as Federal NDP (35%, + 5) Surges to Take Lead Over Tied Liberals (29%, -2) and Conservatives (28%, -3)

Toronto, ON - The orange crush that buoyed the federal NDP in Quebec following the Alberta Election has now spilled over into other parts of the country as the federal NDP has now surged ahead to take the national lead over the Conservative and Liberal parties, according to a new Ipsos poll conducted on behalf of Global News.

If the election were held tomorrow, the NDP under Thomas Mulcair would receive 35% of the decided vote, up 5 points since last month, largely on gains made in Ontario and in the west. In contrast, Justin Trudeau and the Liberals (29%, down 2 points) and Stephen Harper's Conservatives (28%, down 3 points) are losing ground to the rallying NDP.

Nationally the Bloc Quebecois and Gilles Duceppe would receive 6% of the vote (up 2 points) and 22% in Quebec (up 2 points), while the Green Party led by Elizabeth May would receive just 2% of the national vote (down 2 points). Two in ten Canadians either don't know who they would vote for (12%) or wouldn't vote/spoil their ballot (7%).

The poll also found that while the Conservatives have dropped in current voter choice, 41% of Canadians still `approve' (9% strongly/32% somewhat) of the performance of the Conservative government under the leadership of Stephen Harper, while six in ten (59%) `disapprove' (32% strongly/27% somewhat) of its performance.

Approval of the federal government's performance is highest in Alberta (54%) and Ontario (48%), but considerably lower in British Columbia (38%), Saskatchewan and Manitoba (34%), Atlantic Canada (31%) and Quebec (30%).

This, coupled with the new voting preferences, indicates that many Canadian voters are taking a very hard look at Thomas Mulcair and his party but the Conservatives do have a reserve to grow back into.

NDP Making Gains in Key Battlegrounds...

The key to electoral victory in Canada is to win the most seats in the most populous regions of the country and the poll reveals that the NDP is winning - or competitive - in each of the those regions:

• In Ontario, a three-way statistical tie has emerged among the Liberals (34%), Conservatives (33%) and NDP (31%), while the Green Party (2%) trails.
• In Quebec, the NDP (41%) has a sizeable lead over the Liberals (23%), Bloc (22%), and Conservatives (13%).
• In British Columbia, the NDP (40%) has opened a significant lead over the Conservatives (30%), Liberals (24%) and the Green Party (6%).
• In Alberta, the Conservative (43%) lead over the NDP (37%) has shrunk to just six points with the Liberals (18%) and Greens (2%) well back.
• In Saskatchewan and Manitoba, the NDP (37%) and Liberals (36%) are competing for the lead, while the Conservatives (25%) are falling behind, and the Green Party trails (2%).
• In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals (51%) have a commanding lead over the Tories (25%), NDP (21%) and Green Party (3%), but there are very few seats for the Liberals to pick up in this region.

Harper's Name Presence Helps his Party's Fortunes While Mulcair's and Trudeau's for Theirs is a Wash...

In this poll of 2000 Canadians, one half of the respondents received the vote choice question with the leader's name mentioned after the party name, and the other half received the party name only. This allows Ipsos to measure the impact that the presence of a party leader has on the popular support of the party. While the presence of Stephen Harper's name appears to help the performance of his party in the poll, the presence of both Mulcair and Trudeau did not improve their party's performance. The chart below outlines these differences:

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The only significant difference is that the Conservatives perform four-points better when Harper's name is mentioned (30%) than when it isn't (26%). For the NDP, support with the presence of Mulcair's name is 34%, compared to 36% when his name isn't mentioned. For the Liberals, they perform slightly better when Trudeau's name is not mentioned (30%) than when it is (29%).

(Click to enlarge image)

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between June 19th and 23rd, 2015 on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of 2,003 Canadians (including 1,650 decided voters) from Ipsos' Canadian online panel was interviewed online. Weighting was then employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within +/ - 2.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Canadian adults been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Darrell Bricker, PhD
CEO
Ipsos Global Public Affairs
(416) 324-2001
[email protected]

About Ipsos in Canada

Ipsos is Canada's market intelligence leader, the country's leading provider of public opinion research, and research partner for loyalty and forecasting and modelling insights. With operations in eight cities, Ipsos employs more than 600 research professionals and support staff in Canada. The company has the biggest network of telephone call centres in the country, as well as the largest pre-recruited household and online panels. Ipsos' marketing research and public affairs practices offer the premier suite of research vehicles in Canada, all of which provide clients with actionable and relevant information. Staffed with seasoned research consultants with extensive industry-specific backgrounds, Ipsos offers syndicated information or custom solutions across key sectors of the Canadian economy, including consumer packaged goods, financial services, automotive, retail, and technology & telecommunications. Ipsos is an Ipsos company, a leading global survey-based market research group.

To learn more, please visit www.ipsos.ca.

About Ipsos

Ipsos is an independent market research company controlled and managed by research professionals. Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos has grown into a worldwide research group with a strong presence in all key markets. Ipsos ranks third in the global research industry.

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