PCs (35%), Liberals (35%) in Dead Heat in Ontario Among Decided Voters, But Likely Voters Still Favour
Tories (40%) Over Grits (32%)
Decided Voters Evenly Split between Tories (35%) and Grits (35%)...
If the election were to happen tomorrow, the Progressive Conservatives under Tim Hudak (35%, -1 point) and the Liberals under Premier Kathleen Wynne (35%, +1 point) would receive an equal share of the vote, while the NDP under Andrea Horwath would receive 26% of the vote (up 3 points) and 4% (down 3 points) would vote for another party, including the Green Party under Mike Schreiner. The proportion of completely undecided Ontarians is 12%.
- In the 416, Toronto proper, the Liberal Party (48%) has a commanding lead over the NDP (27%) and the PCs (22%) while support for other parties lags (3%).
- In the 905 area, surrounding Toronto, the Liberals (40%) and the PCs (36%) are in a tight battle, with the NDP (22%) and other parties (3%) less competitive.
- In Southwestern Ontario, the PCs (37%) have the edge over the NDP (32%) and the Liberals (25%), while other parties trail (6%).
- In Central Ontario, the PCs (49%) have a large lead over the Liberals (25%), NDP (20%) and other parties (6%).
- In Eastern Ontario, the PCs (48%) are well ahead of the Liberals (30%), NDP (18%) and other parties (4%).
- In Northern Ontario, the Liberals (35%), PCs (32%) and NDP (31%) are evenly matched, while 2% would vote for some other party.
Ballot Box Bonus Belongs to Progressive Conservatives...
Examining the data among the 56% of Ontarians who say that `nothing short of an unforeseen emergency could stop me from getting to the voting booth and casting my vote' - herein called "likely voters" - the Progressive Conservatives (40%, +5 points compared to overall figures) have an eight-point lead over the Liberals (32%, -3 points) and the NDP (24%, -2 points), while 3% would vote for some other party (-1 point). The proportion of completely undecided likely voters is 5% (-7 points).
This trend has been consistent throughout the campaign - Tory voters are most motivated to show up and vote while Liberal supporters are less enthusiastic about casting their vote. To illustrate this point, the data reveal that 74% of PC voters say that nothing short of an emergency could prevent them from voting, compared to 61% of NDP voters and 60% of Liberal voters who say the same. Moreover, Tory voters (67%) are much more likely than NDP (55%) and Liberal (54%) voters to say they are paying close attention to the election campaign.
Not only are PCs voters more likely to show up to vote and pay close attention to the campaign, but they're also more likely to say that they are committed to their party and they won't change their mind before E-Day. Two in three (66%) Tory voters are `absolutely certain' that they will continue to support the PCs on E-Day, compared to fewer NDP (52%) and Liberal (45%) voters who say the same.
Examining the regional vote among likely voters, the data show that:
- In the 416, Toronto proper, the Liberals (44%) remain ahead of the PCs (27%) and NDP (26%).
- In the 905 area surrounding Toronto, the Tories (43%) edge ahead of the Grits (36%) and NDP (18%).
- In Southwestern Ontario, the Tories (39%) increase their lead over the NDP (31%) and Liberals (24%).
- In Central Ontario, the Tories (54%) dominate over the NDP (22%) and Liberals (21%), but the sample size is small.
- In Eastern Ontario, the PCs (52%) are also flying high compared to the Liberals (31%) and NDP (15%).
- In Northern Ontario, the PCs (38%) are ahead of the Liberals (33%) and NDP (29%), but the sample size is small.
Ontarians' Appetite for Change Unwavering...
Unwavering appetite for change in Ontario is likely the explanation for the strong motivation to vote among Tory voters and the Liberal vote that is, by comparison, anemic. Seven in ten (68%, down 1 point) Ontarians say `it is time for another provincial party to take over and run the province', compared to 32% (up 1 point) of Ontarians who more closely believe that `the Wynne government has done a good job and deserves re-election' - a figure that often tracks closely to the percentage of the popular vote the incumbent receives on Election Day. In fact, among likely voters, 32%believe the Wynne government deserves election.
Ontarians, however, have not formed a consensus on which party and leader will bring the type of change that Ontario needs. Three in ten (30%) believe that person is Tim Hudak, but nearly as many believe it is Kathleen Wynn (28%) or Andrea Horwath (26%). Two in ten (17%) believe that some other person would bring the type of change Ontario needs, or, in other words, none of these party leaders.
Four in Ten (43%) Liberal Voters Trying to Prevent Another Party From Winning, Suggesting Anti-Conservative Vote Rallies Around the Liberals...
One in three (33%) Ontarians say that they are voting the party they indicated because they want to make sure that another party does not win. However, among Liberal voters this sentiment is particularly strong, as 43% say that they're trying to stop another party, compared to 30% of NDP voters and 27% of PC voters. This could be something to watch for in the final days of the campaign as the anti-Conservative vote appears to be rallying around the Liberals, which does not bode well for the NDP.
The Final Days of the Campaign...
Two in ten (26%) Ontarians, overall, say that they will finally make up their mind in the last week (16%) of the campaign or in the voting booth on Election Day (10%). Among likely voters, however, this proportion drops to 14% (11% final week/3% in the voting booth).
It appears that, if currently decided voters decide to change their mind, most of the switching will be between the NDP and Liberals:
- 46% of Liberal voters would choose the NDP as their second choice, while just 14% would chose the PCs.
- 36% of NDP voters would choose the Liberals as their second choice, and 16% would choose the PCs.
- PC voters are much more likely to choose the NDP (33%) than the Liberals (11%) as their second choice.
These are some of the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted between June 3 (after the debate) until June 6, 2014, on behalf of CTV and CP24. For this survey, a sample of 2,140 Ontarians from Ipsos' Canadian online panel was interviewed online. Weighting was then employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within +/-2.4 percentage points had all adults in Ontario been surveyed.
For more information on this news release, please contact:
John Wright
Senior Vice President
Ipsos Reid
Public Affairs
416.324.2002
[email protected]
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