Progressive Conservatives hold decisive lead (50%) over Liberals (24%), NDP (20%) as Ontario election officially underway

The Progressive Conservatives (50%) under Premier Doug Ford hold a decisive lead (26 points) over Crombie’s Liberals (24%) and Stiles’ NDP (20%) among decided voters. Fifteen percent (15%) of Ontarians remain undecided. Tory voters are most likely to be “absolutely certain” (56%) of their vote choice, ahead of Liberal (37%) and NDP (32%) voters. 

While 52% of Ontarians believe an early election call is just “cynical politics” on the part of Ford, 48% say “we need an early election” to deal with Trump-caused problems.

Nearly half (46%) of Ontarians believe Doug Ford would continue to make the best Premier of Ontario, followed by one-quarter (26%) who think Bonnie Crombie would be best Premier. One in five (19%) chose Marit Stiles and 10% selected Mike Schreiner of the Green Party.

Doug Ford’s approval rating of 57% is strong, ahead of the 51% recorded at the start of the 2022 election. Moreover, 46% believe the Ford government deserves re-election – more than enough support to deliver a strong majority government -- six points ahead of where the figure stood in 2022.

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between January 29 and 30, 2025, on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of 800 Ontario residents aged 18+ was interviewed online. Quotas and weighting were employed to ensure that the sample’s composition reflects that of the population of Ontario according to census parameters. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within ± 4.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Ontarians aged 18+ been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Darrell Bricker, PhD
CEO, Ipsos Global Public Affairs
+1 416 324 2001
[email protected]

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