Race Tightens Further as Campaign Hits Final Stretch

New Ipsos polling for Global News following the televised leaders’ debates shows the Conservatives (38%, +2) continuing to close the gap with the Liberals (41%, -1) who are clutching to a three-point lead, nationally. The NDP has 12% (+1) of the vote among decided voters, while the Bloc is at 5% nationally, or 25% within Quebec.  Canadians say they prefer a majority (53%) government outcome over a minority (20%), but a tightening races reduces the odds of a majority-government  outcome.

Despite the tightening vote, Mark Carney (41%) continues to lead Pierre Poilievre (36%) as Canadians’ choice for Canada’s best Prime Minister, both unchanged since last week. All other party leaders are well behind, with no significant change registering in the aftermath of the televised debates.

There has been a slight improvement in the proportion of Canadians who believe the Carney Government has done a good job and deserves re-election (46%, +2), a figure which generally bodes well for the incumbent government and often correlations strongly to popular vote. Conversely, 54% (-2) believe that it’s time for another federal party to take over. 

Approval of the government sits at 50%, down 2 points.

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between April 17th and 19th, 2025, on behalf of Global News.  For this survey, a sample of n=1,000 Canadians aged 18+ was interviewed online, via the Ipsos I-Say panel and non-panel sources, and respondents earn a nominal incentive for their participation. Quotas and weighting were employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. The precision of Ipsos polls which include non-probability sampling is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within ± 3.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Canadians been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error. Ipsos abides by the disclosure standards established by the CRIC, found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

For more information on this news release, please contact:
Darrell Bricker, PhD
CEO, Ipsos Global Public Affairs
+1 416 324 2001
[email protected]
 

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