Scandal Rocks Grits Support

Toronto, ON - The recent release of Auditor General Sheila Fraser's audit of the Federal Government's Sponsorship Program has dealt the Federal Liberals a punishing blow according to the latest Ipsos-Reid/CTV/Globe and Mail poll released today. Liberal support among decided voters has dropped 9 points since the last Ipsos-Reid vote poll conducted on January 15th (39%, down from 48%). Meanwhile, the Conservative party appears to have gained some ground in light of these events; having gone up 5 points (24%, up from 19%). The NDP (18%, up from 16%), The Bloc Quebecois (10%, unchanged), and The Green Party (5%, up from 4%), have seen little change in support as a result of the Federal Audit.

These are the findings of an Ipsos-Reid/CTV/Globe and Mail/CTV poll conducted between February 10 and February 12th 2004. The poll is based on a randomly selected sample of 1055 adult Canadians. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 177 3.9 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to the 2001 Census data. Liberal Support Rocked By Fraser's Report

Auditor General Sheila Fraser's damning report on the Federal Government's Sponsorship Program has rocked Federal Liberal voter support. When asked which party they would be most likely to support if an election were held tomorrow, 39% answer that they would vote for Paul Martin's Liberals, representing a drop of 9 points since January 15th (when Liberal support was at 48%). While the Liberals have stumbled badly, the Conservatives have gained 5 points in the polls since the last Ipsos-Reid Federal survey (24%, up from 19%). But The NDP (18%, up from 16%), The Bloc Quebecois (10%, unchanged), and The Green Party (5%, up from 4%) have seen little to no change in voter support.

• The Liberals have suffered most in British Columbia (27%, down 15 points from 42%) and Saskatchewan/Manitoba (33%, down 13 points from 46%). Ontario has also seen a substantial drop in Liberal support (47%, down 10 points from 57%), as has Alberta (28%, down 7 points from 35%) and Quebec (40%, down 5 points from 45%). But voter support is more stable in and Atlantic Canada (42%, down 1 point from 43%).

• The report has had a potent effect among rural voters, as Liberal support in rural regions has dropped sharply (28%, down 17 points from 45%). Conversely, the Conservatives have gained support among rural voters (36%, up 11 points from 25%).

• Conservative support has risen most in British Columbia (35%, up 15 points from 20%), trailed by Ontario (25%, up 7 points from 18%), Alberta (50%, up 3 points from 47%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (23%, up 3 points from 20%), and Quebec (5%, up 2 points from 3%). Conservative support has actually dropped in Atlantic Canada (33%, down 4 points from 37%).

• The NDP has gained most in Saskatchewan (33%, up 9 points from 24%), followed by Ontario (22%, up 5 points from 17%), Alberta (16%, up 3 points from 13%), Quebec (8%, up 2 points from 6%), and Atlantic Canada (19%, up 2 points from 17%). NDP support has actually gone down in British Columbia (22%, down 5 points from 27%).

Please open the attached PDF to view the factum and detailed tables.

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For more information on this news release, please contact:

Darrell Bricker
President & C00
Ipsos-Reid Public Affairs
(416) 324-2900