11th wave of the Future Risks Barometer: In a world in polycrisis, never has the feeling of vulnerability been so strong

A feeling of vulnerability that progresses and reaches records, in a world where crises are perceived as increasingly numerous

• „9 out of 10 people interviewed in the world today have the feeling that there is a growing number of crises (90%) and that they have more and more impact on people's lives (91%): a finding shared by risk experts interviewed in 50 countries (93%).
• At the same time, the feeling of vulnerability of the populations has never been so strong in the face of life's risks, whether it be in the face of pollution (77%, +4 points compared to last year), cybersecurity-related risks (73%, +5 points), climate change (77%, +4 points), chronic illnesses (72%, +3 points), energy risks (75%, +3 points), risks of social tensions and movements (70%, +4 points) or geopolitical instability (61%, +2 points). In 2024, of the 25 life risks tested, 22 reach a record level of vulnerability among the national populations.
• The feeling that this vulnerability is strengthening year after year remains very high and stable in 2024, whether in the world (79%, -1 point compared to 2023), in their country (71%, -2 points) or in their city or village (61%, -3 points). This fear is thus globalising. Since the Covid-19 crisis of 2020, the feeling of becoming increasingly vulnerable has never decreased to return to the levels before.
• This feeling of vulnerability in one's own country is very strong almost everywhere: whether in the United States (76%), in France (80%), in Spain or Belgium (78%), or again in Great Britain (77%). Only Switzerland feels much less exposed (only 54%) but also to a lesser extent some Asian countries (69% in Japan, 64% in Hong Kong and 36% in China).

 
The TOP 10 most feared risks: climate change still at the top, risks related to AI enter the ranking of the most feared risks and concerns related to societal and political risks increase.

• „The risk of climate change still occupies the first place in the ranking of the most feared risks by populations around the world, since 2022 (as well as among risk experts). Cybersecurity-related risks remain at a very high level, in 3rd position (as in 2023), while risks related to AI and Big Data enter the top 10 of national populations for the 1st time (it was already the case for risk experts who had entered it in 2021 within the top 10).
• „Fears regarding societal and political risks also progress within the general population and notably geopolitical instability (6th rank, +3 places), tensions and social movements (4th rank, stable) and new threats to security and terrorism (2nd rank, +4 places). This is particularly the case in Europe where geopolitical instability, tensions and social movements, and new threats to security and terrorism take respectively the 2nd, the 3rd and the 4th place of the most feared risks, notably in France.
• „In a context of violent presidential campaign and massive political polarization, these fears are also very high in the United States. New threats to security and terrorism arrive at the 3rd rank of the strongest fears of Americans, tensions and social movements in 4th place.
• „These fears also progress among risk experts who place geopolitical instability in 2nd position (+1 place compared to 2023), tensions and social movements in 5th (+3 places) and new threats to security and terrorism in 8th. Risks related to AI and Big Data remain at a very high level among the risks most feared by experts (4th place, like in 2023), behind climate change (always in 1st position).

Faced with this rise of fears related to societal and political risks, the fear of misinformation movements and their consequences has become very strong, notably in the United States

• „Recent news has shown how misinformation movements had in recent months interacted with the rise of urban violence movements. This was the case last August in Great Britain with far-right violence that spread across the country following messages calling for hate on social networks. This was also the case in France and in New Caledonia, where following riots, the TikTok platform was banned on the island for several weeks.
• „The risk is objectively real since there is a worrying phenomenon: in all countries, the vast majority of the population estimates they know how to spot fake news (78%) - this is notably the case in the United States (83%), in Germany (81%) or again in France (75%) - but considers at the same time that the "others" are not capable of doing so (60%, 60% in the United States, 56% in Germany, 67% in France). In this context, the risk of misinformation is real and very high.
• „National populations, just like experts, produce an alarming report and estimate that, in their country, the risk of misinformation has serious consequences on violence and hate (84%), the functioning of institutions (78%), radicalization and terrorism (80%) or even the security of people and property (80%).
• „In the United States, these fears reach record levels since the vast majority of Americans consider that the risk of misinformation has serious consequences on violence and hate (90%, +6 points compared to the global), the functioning of institutions (87%, +9 points) or even radicalization and terrorism (87%, +7 points compared to the global). They also overwhelmingly consider that in the context of the next elections, the risk of misinformation on social networks to influence the vote of voters is real (88%), just like that of challenging the electoral results due to a misinformation campaign (85%) or even violent demonstrations following the results by people who have believed deliberately false information (85%).
• „In this context, the majority of national populations estimate that the most important is to ensure that misinformation and "fake news" do not circulate and do not influence citizens, even if it reduces freedom of expression (62% globally, 59% in the United States), only a minority considering that it is rather necessary to guarantee freedom of expression for all citizens, even if this can lead to misinformation and "fake news" circulating more easily (38% globally, 41% in the United States).

Risk experts are very critical of the level of awareness of the populations and the preparation of the authorities in the face of the dangers they fear the most, notably technological risks and those related to AI.

• „Faced with the risks they fear the most, the majority of experts surveyed consider that the level of awareness of the populations is not sufficient. Only for geopolitical instability (52%) and climate change (50%), does a short majority consider that it is. For the rest, experts estimate that awareness is insufficient, notably for technological risks like risks related to AI and Big Data (only 22% estimate that populations are sufficiently aware), disruptive technologies (22%), risks related to smart and autonomous systems (23%), economic risks related to technology (23%) or even those related to medical progress and innovations (27%).
• „Of all the 25 risks tested, there is not one for which a majority of risk experts (more than 3000 in 50 countries different) consider that public authorities are prepared. Thus, risks related to cybersecurity, which are today perceived as those for which public authorities are better prepared only gather 27% agreement. More serious, risks on which they consider that the authorities are least prepared are also most often the most feared risks: this is the case of risks related to natural resources and biodiversity (only 10% estimate that public authorities are well prepared), AI-related risks (11%), risks of tensions and social movements (13%) or even climate change (14%).

Faced with increasingly global risks, the temptation to withdraw is growing in European countries and in the United States.

• „Overall, the majority of risk experts (76%) and, to a lesser extent, national populations (56%) believe that risks are increasingly interconnected and would ideally require global solutions. They confirm once again the diagnosis of a polycrisis. They probably consider that given the increasingly global nature of risks, in principle, solutions should be global.
• „However, in practice, experts in particular, and to a certain extent the general public, are very divided about the future of globalization and our ability to find global solutions to future risks. 1 in 2 risk experts believes that globalization will gradually slow down, as most countries in the world will try by themselves to protect against global risks (50%). An opinion in progress and shared by more than 2 individuals out of 5 within national populations (44%, +3 points since 2022).
• „This bet on a slowdown in globalization is much more the fact of European countries (65% experts side, 70% in France; 48% populations side, 50% in France), usually more critical of globalization. But others are betting on the contrary, believing that it will intensify over time, as most countries will try to find collective solutions to global risks (populations side: 62% of African countries, 58% of American countries, and 54% of Asian countries).
• „As a consequence, in European countries, populations increasingly believe that solutions will not be found at the global level. This is the lowest level ever measured (only 48%, -7 points since 2021). This is notably the case in France (53%, -9 points since 2021). Only 42% of the American population believes that the most effective measures will have to be taken at the global level.
• „On the contrary, in China, populations have never considered so much that solutions will have to be found at the global level (59%, +17 points since 2020).

Risk experts believe that prevention will play an essential role in the coming years but for some risks such as those related to AI, they favor the implementation of legislation including sanctions.

• „Nearly 9 out of 10 risk experts believe that the most serious risks could be avoided with strong preventive actions (88%) but the vast majority of them consider however that this would only be "partially" possible (62%).
• „Faced with the various solutions that could be implemented, experts favor a number of different solutions depending on the risks. Prevention and risk mitigation, thanks in particular to investments in protection infrastructure, is favored for global environmental risks such as climate change (mentioned first by 40% of experts) but also for energy risks (mentioned first, 34%).
• „Regarding technological risks, experts more frequently recommend the implementation of regulations including sanctions, especially for risks related to AI and big data (mentioned first by 50% of experts), ethical risks related to the use of technology (mentioned first by 49%), those related to intelligent and autonomous systems (mentioned first by 39%) or even disruptive technologies (mentioned first by 38%). However, for cybersecurity risks, they more frequently recommend preventive measures (48%).
• „For economic risks, the measure most often highlighted by experts is good risk governance through transparent and accountable management systems, as is the case for risks of financial instability (mentioned first by 41%), risks related to monetary and fiscal policies (mentioned first by 37%) or even macroeconomic risks (30%, mentioned first).
• „Finally, regarding societal and political risks, experts consider it is often better to raise awareness of risks in order to increase stakeholder engagement in the policy-making process. This is the case for geopolitical instability (mentioned first by 36% of experts), tensions and social movements (35%, mentioned first) or demographic risks (mentioned first by 35%).
• At the same time, faced with many of these global risks, many experts believe that global solutions will come from a set of measures, some related to prevention, others to regulation, fiscal incentives, or even risk governance through transparent and accountable risk management systems.

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