Crime is predicted to be top worry in 2030

It’s said that history doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes. 

When people everywhere from Australia to America envision what the world might be like five years from now many think it will be quite similar, but not exactly the same. 

In October 2025, the top five worries in the world are: crime/violence (33% on average across 30 countries), inflation (30%), poverty/social inequality (28%), unemployment (28%) and financial/political corruption (27%).

We recently asked people to think about what the world may look like in 2030 and there’s not much hope these intractable issues will be solved in the near future as people predict the top five issues will be the same, with crime/violence (31%) still seen as the top worry in 2030, followed by poverty/social inequality (29%), unemployment (27%), inflation (27%) and financial/political corruption (24%).

At the same time other tough topics, such as climate change, are seen as slightly more pressing in the future.

Below, we take a deeper look at what might be worrying people as one decade winds down and the next ramps up. 

1. Law and order

Crime/violence is expected to still be the No. 1 worry in 2030.

Close to one in three (31% on average globally, -two percentage points versus today), think this will be the key concern five years from now.

But the level of concern varies widely depending on where one lives.

Predicted worry about crime in 2030 runs the gamut from a low of just 9% in Singapore to a high of 59% in Peru. The Latin American country is currently most concerned about crime (at 68%) and while there’s an anticipated nine-point dip in the intervening five years, it’s clear Peruvians believe struggles with gang violence, which recently led to the ouster of President Dina Boluarte, will be hard to permanently fix.

2. The haves, have nots and have yachts

Poverty/social inequality (29%, +1 pp vs. today) is right behind crime/violence as leading predicted worries five years from now.

We’re living in a time when billionaires are shelling out to fly a rocket to space while working people are struggling with bills that sky-rocketed in recent years as wages often lagged behind.

Some have more than enough; others are barely getting by.

The latest wave of Ipsos’ Cost of Living Monitor finds people in lower-income households are currently the most likely to say they’re finding it quite/very difficult to manage financially (39% on average across 30 countries), followed by middle-income households (30%), and even a fair proportion of those in higher-income households (20%) report finding it hard to manage financially these days.

In America almost three in five (57%) recently said they were living paycheck to paycheck, with Janelle James, Senior Vice President, Head of Cultural Intelligence, for Ipsos in the U.S. recently noting in a piece for Ad Age that: 

From rising inflation and unaffordable housing to growing income inequality and stagnant wages, Americans today are feeling increasingly more resource-restricted. This more persistent economic pressure is not only crossing identity groups and expanding the definition of the financially squeezed, but also creating more anxiety.

Those on the lowest rungs of the economic ladder are being hit the hardest yet people across the spectrum appear to have taken notice with similar proportions across the low-, mid- and high-income levels concerned that poverty/social inequality will continue to be a key issue five years from now.

3. The robots are coming for your job? 

Generation Zers* are the most worried about jobs in the near future as 31%, on average globally, predict unemployment will be the biggest issue facing their country in 2030, followed closely by Millennials (28%) and Generation Xers (27%), with Baby Boomers (19%) the least concerned.

Many Boomers, the youngest of which will be turning 65 in 2030, are at or nearing the end of their careers while other generations still have many more working days ahead of them.

For those not ready, or able, to retire the future can seem scary.

A ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is looming, with one expert predicting artificial intelligence (AI) could wipe out half of all current entry-level jobs and lead to a significant spike in unemployment in the next few years.

Frightening predictions appear to already have people in the early-to-middle stages of their careers stressed about work opportunities with 34% of Gen Zers, followed by 30% of Millennials and 27% of Gen Xers concerned about unemployment vs. just 16% of Boomers in 2025. And the Ipsos AI Monitor 2025 finds almost half of Gen Zers (45%) predict AI will replace their current job in the next five years, followed by Millennials (39%), Gen Xers (30%) and Boomers (24%).

4. Afterburn

Many also seem worried about further spikes in the cost of living.

While red-hot inflation has cooled off since the post-2022 highs witnessed in many countries, people clearly are still feeling burned by punishing price rises.

Back in October 2020, 9% on average across 27 countries thought inflation was a top worry for their country, but that surged to 43% in February 2023 when post-pandemic spending sent some costs surging. The world economy has come back down to Earth since then, yet worry about inflation remains 21 points higher than it was near the start of this decade.

People are split on what’s ahead. Our Cost of Living Monitor finds close to 1 in 3 (29% at a global level) think their disposable income will rise in the next year, while a similar proportion (31%) think the income that they can spend after paying their bills for living expenses will fall. And just over one-quarter (26% on average globally) predict that inflation will never return to normal in their country.

Elevated cost-of-living worry concern appears here to stay for the foreseeable future.

Just over one-quarter (27% on average globally, -3 pp vs. today) predict inflation will be a key concern in 2030 with those in Singapore (57%) the most worried and the Swedish (12%) the least concerned.

And amid Trump’s ongoing tariff war almost one-third (31%) of all Americans predict inflation will be a top worry even after his term ends in early 2029. A fairly similar proportion of Republicans (33%) and Democrats (28%) think the cost of living will be a key concern five years from now.

That’s well down from the 41% of Republicans and 34% of Democrats who currently see inflation as a key issue, signaling there’s some hope that punishing prices will stabilize.

But, Americans on both sides of the aisle think the cost of living will continue to be a leading issue for their country as a new decade dawns. Republicans predict inflation will be a key issue in 2030, right behind crime. Democrats also think the cost of living will continue to be a leading concern, tying with financial/political corruption and coming in behind poverty/social inequality, health care and climate change.

5. Sweating a warming world

It’s not only American Democrats worrying about climate change.  

Last year was the hottest on record and experts predict climate change will just get worse unless significant action is taken. Back in 2015 there was hope that under the Paris Agreement, countries would come together to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels by 2030. It’s appearing less and less likely the Paris goal will be met. 

Given that, it’s little surprise that climate change is seen as an increasingly pressing issue in 2030, ranking as the sixth largest problem compared to the ninth most concerning issue today.

Five years from now 19% (+six pp vs. today) predict climate change will be a top issue. People in Japan, where people have been battling record heat alongside the looming threat of tsunamis and earthquakes that might be worsened by a warming planet, are the most worried about climate change in both 2030 (37%) and 2025 (30%).

Our new polling reveals people predict the top problems of today (crime/violence, inflation, poverty/social inequality, unemployment and financial/political corruption) will still be the top problems five years from now. While problems like climate change are seen to get a bit worse.

There seems to be little faith that these issues will be fixed by politicians and public servants.

Our COP30 polling finds that lack of political will among government leaders is the most-cited barrier globally to meeting climate goals (42% on average across 30 countries). And the AXA/Ipsos Future Risks Report 2025 reveals that a mere 16% of the general population on average globally say they have full confidence in public authorities’ capacity to manage future crises.

This uncovers an underlying pessimism (or pragmatism, depending on your outlook) that serious structural problems will continue to haunt society as the 2030s dawn.

But, will crime really still be the No. 1 issue five years from now?

Time will tell. 

Because while history may rhyme, it doesn’t literally repeat itself.

Melissa Dunne is a senior data journalist with Ipsos and is based in Canada.

*Generation Z (born between 1996-2012), Millennials (born between 1980-1995), Generation X (born between 1966-1979) and Baby Boomers (born between 1945-1965).