Rising consumer confidence in new, larger, February 2023 global sentiment tracker
Ipsos is introducing major enhancements to its consumer confidence reporting. The monthly Global Consumer Confidence Index now spans 32 countries with the addition of Chile, Colombia, Peru, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Netherlands, Singapore, Thailand, and the United Arab Emirates. With the addition of these nine countries, the tracker now covers 84% of the global economy. Furthermore, thanks to a change in methodology, the survey now captures the sentiment of a much broader swath of the Indian consumer market. Finally, Ipsos is now reporting indices based on single-month data rather than calibrated three-month averages. This means that the metrics published each month will fully reflect consumer sentiment over the past two-to-five weeks in each country.
The Global Consumer Confidence Index is the average of all surveyed countries’ Overall or “National” indices. This month’s installment is based on a monthly survey of more than 23,000 adults under the age of 75 from 32 countries conducted on Ipsos’ Global Advisor online platform. This survey was fielded between January 20 and February 3, 2023—before a devastating earthquake in Turkey and Syria.
Two of the nine countries added this month, the UAE and Indonesia, place themselves among the top five in consumer optimism. The other three are China still at the #1 spot, Saudi Arabia at #3, and India at #5. Newly added Singapore, Netherlands, Thailand, and Malaysia all record national indices above the 50-mark, placing them in the top half among the 32 countries surveyed. However, this is not the case with Peru, Colombia, and Chile. Chile finds itself among the bottom five countries, on par with South Korea and Japan, and ahead of only Turkey and Hungary.
This month, five countries show a significant month-over-month gain in their National Index: Great Britain, by nearly 5 points, and Brazil, Belgium, Germany, and Spain – all by about 2 points. On the other end, four countries record a significant loss compared to their January reading: South Africa and Italy, both by 4 points, and Hungary and France, both by about 2 points.
Compared to 12 months ago, the country that had recorded the steepest drop in consumer optimism is Sweden (down nearly 15 points) while Brazil shows the largest gain (up nearly 13 points).
Factoring in all the changes implemented this month, Ipsos’ Global Consumer Confidence Index currently reads at 48.7. Excluding the nine new countries, it would read at 47.0, just 0.2 points from last month. The stability of the “overall” index this month betrays trends in opposite directions.
On the one hand, the Current sub-index, reflecting consumers’ perceptions of the economic climate and their current purchasing, jobs, and investment confidence, shows an average decline of 1.2 points across the 23 countries where it was measured last month to a middling 36.8 points. The average goes up to 40.3 points when based on all 32 countries now measured. The current mood tends to be rosier than average in most newly added markets—especially the UAE whose Current sub-index score is one-tenth of a point shy of Saudi Arabia’s 79.5.
Similarly, the Investment sub-index, indicative of consumers’ perception of the investment climate, records a 23-country average decline of 0.9 points since last month to 38.7. Again, this is nearly 4 points lower than the average based on all 32 countries (42.3).
On the other hand, the Expectations sub-index, indicative of consumer expectations about future economic conditions, is up by 0.5 points on average. Among the world’s leading economies, it is up by more than 6 points in Great Britain and by more than 4 points in Germany, but down by more than 4 points in China.
The Jobs sub-index, reflecting perceptions about jobs security and the jobs market, shows more stability, up just 0.2 points from last month at a global level. However, it shows significant gains in five countries including the US, Great Britain, and Germany, and significant drops in six countries, including China and France.
About the study
These findings are based on data from a monthly 32-country survey conducted by Ipsos on its Global Advisor online survey platform and, in India, on its IndiaBus platform. They are first reported each month by Refinitiv as the Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI).
The results are based on interviews with over 23,200 adults aged 18+ in India, 18-74 in Canada, Israel, Malaysia, South Africa, Turkey, and the United States, 20-74 in Thailand, 21-74 in Indonesia and Singapore, and 16-74 in all other countries