A new Cold War?

Towards the end of the world?

August saw the death of Mikhail Gorbachev, the Soviet Leader who will forever be associated with the end of the Cold War. In the words of UN Secretary-General António Guterres, he was a “one of a kind of statesmen who changed the course of history”.

If the end of the Cold War at first dramatically reduced international tensions, the advent of Covid-19 created a new situation of risk on a global scale.

The pandemic changed the scale of fears with the idea that the whole planet was threatened, more or less at the same time, by an uncontrollable virus. Fortunately, vaccines have been found in record time, billions of doses have been injected, countermeasures have had an effective result, and most countries have returned to normal life (see our january article for our reflections on the lessons we learned from Covid times).

In 2020, an Ipsos survey showed that the citizens of the world believed that the next global crisis would be environmental, linked to global warming, with extreme temperatures and natural disasters, capable of changing the lives of billions of people around the world.

No one imagined that 2022 would create the conditions for an even more dangerous scenario with the invasion of Ukraine on 24^th February.

85% of people polled across 33 countries think the world has become more dangerous over the past year

This is the highest percentage since Ipsos started asking the question in 2014 (83%) and is up significantly from 74% in 2018.

The Future Risks Survey carried out by Ipsos for AXA describes an overheated world, where crises are stacking up on each other while Ipsos’ research for the Halifax International Security Forum finds the percentage who feel a nuclear, biological, or chemical attack taking place somewhere in the world is a “somewhat or very real threat” rose nine points from last year to a global country average of 75% (+9 points from 2021).

Germany, France and Japan are the three countries showing the highest increases in concern about a nuclear, biological or chemical attack

Are authorities and governments able to deal with all this? Confidence in public authorities’ (58% vs. 62% in 2021), private companies’ (45% vs. 47% in 2021) and even scientists’ (66% vs. 75% in 2021) ability to cope with multiple crises is declining.

The consequences of international tensions on our perception of other nations and the world around us is obvious. On its 15th anniversary, The Anholt-Ipsos Nation Brands Index, an annual study that has been conducted since 2008, showed that if Germany retained its first place as most reputable nation, some other countries’ reputation was seriously hurt by recent developments. “This year’s results remind us that chaos damages countries’ reputations, and stability is rewarded,” says Ipsos CEO Ben Page. “Britain sees itself fall again, now dropping out of the top five for the first time ever. Russia has been punished for its war by global public opinion, dropping from 27th place last year to 58th now.”

Yves Bardon

Table of content

• January - A third year begins
• February - War returns to Europe
• March - Antarctic heatwave
• April - A populist year?
• May - Cost of living crisis
• June - Women's rights
• July - A cruel summer
• August - A new Cold War?
• September - National identities
• October - Green Transport
• November - Peak population
• December - World in motion