Peak population

November : as the world population breaks the 8 billion barrier, we need to start preparing for shrinking populations
Ipsos | Almanac 2022 | November | Demographics

November 2022 is the month the world population topped 8 billion. If this figure might particularly strike those who still remember when global population was just half this figure (it was in 1975), now is the time to be very clear: world population growth is slowing down. In the words of the UN, “while it took the global population 12 years to grow from 7 to 8 billion, it will take approximately 15 years—until 2037— for it to reach 9 billion, a sign that the overall growth rate of the global population is slowing.”

Ipsos | Almanac | Demography | Decline

 

World population growth is slowing down

One pattern is common to the two most populous countries, India and China: fertility rates are falling. In China, it now stands at 1.18, well below the replacement rate of 2.1. And India’s figures have fallen even more dramatically in the past 20 years, from 3.22 to 2.01, which means that its population could start decreasing before the end of this century.

China’s population is now ageing very fast. The median age of its population rose from 23.7 years in 1990 to 38.5 in 2022 and 35% of the Chinese population are now 50 years old or older.

Those countries which have had a low fertility rate for a longer period, like Japan, Italy or South Korea, are ageing even faster. Italy’s shrinking population is only now starting to become a real issue, with some even raising questions about the prospects for the long-term “survival” of a distinct Italian nation. The very shape of Italy’s population pyramid is striking, with its increasingly top-heavy features, set on top of a narrow base:

This all has very real implications in terms of how society and the economy operate – now and in the future. Some 36% of Italians under 30s now living in single-person households, while just 50% have a driving licence. And, when they are employed (the youngest working age groups being three times more likely to be unemployed), they have on average had between four and five different jobs since they’ve entered the labour market. This points to an insecure, unsettled lifestyle.

Meanwhile, South Korea is experiencing similar issues, with an extremely low fertility rate (now at only 0.87) and ageing very fast: just 22% are under 25, and they are outnumbered by the over 60s (25.5%).

Ipsos | Almanac | Demographics | Seniors

 

Are we ready?

It’s time to ask ourselves whether companies, brands – and indeed employers – are spending a little too much time focusing their efforts on so-called Generation Z (young adults born in 1997 and later). We certainly need to pay more attention to the over 50s, who may have more still to give in the workplace and certainly have more to spend during their leisure time.

Indeed, the public seem to be coming to this conclusion, with a growing sense that society tends to value people under 50 rather more than those who are older.

Lower fertility rates and ageing are increasing the relative size of the over 50 age group in virtually all countries and it is already close to a majority (actually already a majority of the adult population) in many key Asian and European markets:

Ipsos | Almanac | Domographics | Generations

 

We Need to Talk About Generations

It is against this backdrop that Ipsos is undertaking a new research programme to help us better understand different generations and be clearer about the implication for all of us involved in marketing or policymaking.

Here are three lines of enquiry we are exploring:

Setting things more in context

It’s very easy to generalise about “Generation X, Y, Z” think or what “Baby Boomers” are up to. But we need to always be mindful of the geographical, economic, historical, cultural and social dynamics in which people are living today – and set this alongside the experiences of their formative years. People born the same year but in different places often have had very different experiences and trajectories. Consider two people born respectively in China and the United States in 1973. The material and cultural contexts of these formative years of today’s 50-year-olds went through are so different.

What order of importance to give to Generation Z?

On the one hand they are tomorrow’s generation, and their role as influencers spreads well beyond their age group. But this needs to be weighed against the reality of their relative size as a group (not to mention the relative uncertainty of their economic outlook in the fast-ageing countries).

The First Global Generation?

Let’s now consider a Chinese and American “Generation Z” born in 2003. Of course, there are still many differences in the environments in which they have grown up. But there are also potentially more similarities across nations for our current crop of 20-year-olds. At least in terms of the urban middle class, it could be that our Generation Z are, wherever they live, work or study, the first global generation, showing more in common than they do differences.