Revamp Italy: A project always at the starting point

Every time a government changes, whoever wins claims that change has finally arrived, and that everything will be transformed. This is one of the reasons why it is so difficult to carry out major reforms in Italy, because every time, like Penelope, we start from scratch, waiting for Ulysses. “Cambiare tutto per non cambiare nulla” (Changing everything to change nothing), says a character in the book “Il Gattopardo” by Lampedusa.  

There is hope: the NextGenerationEU funds force Italy’s national and local government to undertake long-term projects (i.e. energy storage or primary water infrastructure for water supply security), which have survived three governments (funds requested by the second Conte government,  activities planned by the Draghi government, and executed by the Meloni government). Is now the right time? This is more than an ambition, because Italy really needs to address the problems preventing its growth. 

Demographics: One of the lowest birth rates in the world is linked to one of the highest life expectancies, resulting in a country that is aging rapidly. This has important implications in terms of marketing, welfare, innovation and communication. In ten years, the number of students will drop by more than 1 million; this will have an impact on several industries including clothing, entertainment and team sports. Moreover, in the last two years there has been a big shortage of young people employed in seasonal jobs, like HORECA. 

Work and Innovation: The Italian situation seems to be in line with the ‘great resignation’ narrative, even if the Italian job market has a very specific dynamic. Unemployment is falling, there is a mismatch between supply and demand, and almost 30% of people want to change jobs in the next few years. Younger people want to increase their salary and gain flexibility, while older people want new opportunities to avoid the risk of obsolescence. Wages and careers in Italy are flat, and this generates a huge number of expatriates: official data shows that around 337,000 young people (25-34 years old) expatriated between 2012 and 2021, of which over 120,000 were graduates. Unofficial estimates suggest that the number could actually be between two and three times higher. 

Italy is a very attractive country – but visitor numbers do not do it justice: Italy has high potential in terms of tourism, creativity, people and brands. Italy has an international university system, at a low cost, but few international students. The University of Bologna was the first ‘free’ university in the world (established in 1088), and probably the first to have a female student attend and graduate. Italy lacks in resources and talent attraction, with less tourism than Spain and France. Italy also has less capital attraction despite the growing export capabilities (Italian GDP is 2.2%, export is 2.7% and Italy is one of the few net exporters in the G20). There is no debate about the attractiveness of Italy. Italians and Italian elite understand that there is great potential, even if no one seems to be able to move from potential to action.   

Andrea Alemanno

Head of Corporate Reputation and Public Affairs, Ipsos in Italy