Election 2008: At the End of Week 1,
Tories Lead But No Magic Breakthrough

Ottawa, ON - According to a new Ipsos Reid poll conducted on behalf of CanWest News Service and Global Television, after the first week of the official campaign, the Conservative campaign machine has managed to eke out just two points more than what they finished with in the last election two and a half years ago--leaving them well short of a majority.

In a week of carefully scripted events overtaken by puffins, the inclusion of the Green Party Leader in the televised debates, and Tory War Room gaffes, the national results portray a political landscape that has the Conservatives (38%, up 5 points since August 30) under Stephen Harper holding a nine-point lead over Stephane Dion's second-place Liberals (29%, down 2 points).

The NDP led by Jack Layton, likely taking the lion's share of criticism over the initial exclusion of Elizabeth May from the televised debates, has dropped three points to 13% support. In contrast, the Green Party appears to have benefited only slightly from this week's antics, marginally increasing its support to 11% (up 1 point).

Overall, the Bloc has dropped 1 point and now would receive 8% support (35% in Quebec) if the vote were to happen tomorrow. Perhaps defining the outcome of this election, eight percent (8%) of voters remain undecided.

Despite some growth by the Conservatives overall, the real story is told in the regions, where the Tories still trail in the key battlegrounds of Ontario and Quebec:

• In Quebec, the Bloc (35%) maintains a sizeable lead over the Conservatives (25%) and the Liberals (21%). The NDP (11%) and the Green Party (8%) lag behind significantly.
• In seat-rich Ontario, the Liberals (40%) still hold a lead over the Conservatives (33%). Interestingly, the NDP and the Greens are both tied at 13% support.

With the Conservatives failing to make significant gains in these key battlegrounds, their chances of securing a majority government are still quite far off.

In the other regions, this is how the horserace numbers stack up:

• In British Columbia, the Conservatives (44%) have a commanding lead over the Liberals (28%), with the Green Party (15%) and NDP (14%) tied for support.
• In Alberta, the Conservatives (69%) dominate the landscape. The Liberals (14%), Greens (11%) and NDP (5%) all have their work cut out for them.
• In Saskatchewan and Manitoba, the Tories (59%) are also well ahead of the Grits (33%), the NDP (13%) and the Green Party (3%).
• In Atlantic Canada, there appears to be an interesting movement afoot. The numbers indicate a three-way tie between the Conservatives (28%), the NDP (28%) and the Liberal (27%) Party. The Green Party is receiving support from one in ten (10%) Atlantic Canadians, and 7% would choose some other party if the vote were to happen tomorrow.

Appetite for a Conservative Majority...

Thinking about the possibility that Stephen Harper and the Conservatives could win a majority following the election on October 14, four in ten (35%) Canadians say that they would be `satisfied' (16% very/19% somewhat) with this outcome. On the other hand, over one half (54%) of Canadians would be `dissatisfied' (39% very/16% somewhat) if this were to happen. One in ten (11%) do not know what to think of this situation.

Satisfaction with this scenario, much like vote support, varies with key demographics:

• Albertans (55%) are most likely to say that they'd be satisfied with this outcome, followed by those living in Saskatchewan and Manitoba (42%), British Columbia (35%), Ontario (34%), Quebec (31%) and Atlantic Canada (25%).
• Older Canadians (43%) are much more likely than middle-aged (34%) or younger Canadians (28%) to be satisfied with this scenario.
• Highlighting some of the trouble that the Conservatives have with courting female votes, men (39%) are more likely than women (32%) to be satisfied if the Conservatives were to win a majority.
• Nine in ten (91%) Tory supporters would be satisfied with a Conservative majority. Interestingly, two in ten (20%) Bloc supporters say the same, but fewer Liberal (11%) and NDP supporters (8%) would echo that sentiment.

Strategic Voting...

Four in ten (38%) Canadians say that they would consider voting for a political party just to stop the Conservatives from forming a majority government. Less than half (47%) would not consider this tactic, while 15% say they don't knew whether or not they'd consider this. Interestingly, the proportion who would consider this tactic goes up dramatically among Liberal (62%), NDP (61%), Bloc (56%) and Green (57%) supporters.

In terms of which party they would vote for in order to stop the Conservatives from forming a majority government, among those who indicated that they would consider this tactic, nearly one half (48%) says they'd vote Liberal, while two in ten (21%) would vote for the NDP. Thirteen percent (13%) would choose the Bloc to park their vote, and 10% would vote for the Greens to stop the Tories. Seven percent (7%) don't know.

Examining the opportunity to vote strategically by current party support suggests that there might be some switching later on in the election if the Conservatives are flirting more closely with a majority:

• Among current Green Party supporters who say they would consider voting strategically, only 59% say they would vote for the Green Party in order to do this, suggesting that Green support could erode if Harper threatens to win a majority. Most of the rest would vote for the Liberals (23%) the NDP (7%) or the Bloc (3%).
• Among NDP supporters, 80% say they'd stay with the NDP to block a Harper majority. Almost all of the rest would vote for the Liberals (16%), making them the beneficiaries of a strategic vote.
• Among Liberal supporters, 94% say they'd stick with the Liberals if they were to vote strategically.
• Among Bloc supporters, almost all (98%) would stay with the Bloc if they were to vote strategically.

Certainty to Vote...

One factor which ultimately influences the outcome of the election is voter turnout, and which party can get its supporters out to the polls. Overall, eight in ten (79%) Canadians say that they will be at least `very likely' to vote, but just 58% indicate that they are `absolutely certain'. Examining certainty to vote by party, here is what the data reveal:

• It appears that Green Party supporters are the most likely to go cast their ballots, with 67% of them indicating that they will be `absolutely certain' to vote.
• Conservative supporters are next on the list of most enthusiastic to vote, with 66% of those indicating that they will support the Tories suggesting that they are `absolutely certain' to vote.
• Those supporting the other three major parties are less likely to go out and vote, however. Six in ten of those supporting the Liberals (59%), NDP (58%) and Bloc (57%) supporters say they are `absolutely certain' to vote on Election Day.

Certainty of Vote...

Not only is it important that one's supporters go out and vote, but also that they don't change their vote during the course of the campaign. Overall, four in ten (44%) Canadians who say that there is at least some chance that they will vote say that they're `absolutely' certain as to who they would vote for on Election Day, and that `they won't change their minds'. One in three (33%) are `somewhat certain' but that `they could change their mind before voting day'. Two in ten (21%) Canadians are `not at all certain' and are `very likely to change their mind before voting day'.

However, not all of the party's supporters are equally as sure of their vote:

• Conservative supporters appear to be the most faithful in that they (64%) are most likely to say they won't change their vote, followed by those supporting the Liberals (40%), the NDP (39%), the Bloc (33%) and the Green Party (31%).
• Four in ten (43%) Liberal supporters say they are `somewhat' certain as to who they will vote for, followed by those supporting the Bloc (37%), NDP (34%), Greens (34%) and the Conservatives (25%).
• It appears that the most flaccid support comes from those supporting the fringe parties, with 33% of those who say that they will vote for the Green Party indicating that they are `not at all certain' and `likely to change their mind'. Next in line for jumping ship are Bloc supporters (28%), those supporting the NDP (26%), the Liberals (17%) and finally the Conservatives (10%).

These are the findings of two Ipsos Reid polls conducted on behalf of CanWest News Service and Global Television:

The first poll was conducted from September 9 to September 11, 2008. For the survey, a representative randomly selected sample of 1000 adult Canadians was interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 1773.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult population of Canada been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure that the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to Census data.

The second poll was conducted from September 9 to September 11, 2008. This online survey of 1016 Canadian adults was conducted via the Ipsos I-Say Online Panel, Ipsos Reid's national online panel. The results are based on a sample where quota sampling and weighting are employed to balance demographics and ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the actual Ontarian population according to Census data. Quota samples with weighting from the Ipsos online panel provide results that are intended to approximate a probability sample. An unweighted probability sample of this size, with a 100% response rate, would have an estimated margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what the results would have been had the entire adult population in Canada been polled.

For more information on this news release, please contact:
Dr. Darrell Bricker
President & CEO
Ipsos Reid
Public Affairs
416-509-8460
[email protected]

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