Liberal Woes Continue (19%) As Tories (37%) and NDP (35%)
Battle for Top Spot

Toronto, ON - Liberal woes appear to be continuing as the NDP and Tories remain competitive for top spot, according to a new Ipsos Reid poll conducted on behalf of Postmedia News and Global Television. Liberal support continues to be suppressed likely due to uncertainty surrounding the future of their leadership, while at the same time being eclipsed by the fanfare of the one-year anniversary of the Tory Majority victory, and a newly-elected NDP leader.

If an election were held tomorrow, the federal Conservatives under Prime Minister Stephen Harper would receive 37% of the vote among decided voters, up 3 points since last month, despite continuing to be plagued by controversy and scandal.

Thanks to securing a majority government in the federal election one year ago, the Tories will be thankful there is virtually no chance of an election for another three years since the NDP would be within striking distance, thanks to a honeymoon period for newly-elected NDP leader Thomas Mulcair. The NDP would receive 35% of the popular vote, up 2 points since last month and the highest point recorded for the federal NDP since the election.

Liberal misfortunes continue, and interim Leader Bob Rae is having difficulty turning around his party's popularity. The Grits would receive just 19% of the vote if an election were held tomorrow, down 2 points since last month and on par with their performance in the election one year ago.

Nationally, the Bloc is at 5% (down 2 points), while the Green Party under Elizabeth May remains is down slightly (1 point) with 3% of the vote, and five percent (5%) of voters remain undecided.

In Ontario, the Conservatives (36%) and NDP (35%) are in a dead heat, while the Liberals (23%) are securely in third position, followed by the Green Party (6%).

In Quebec, the NDP (45%) continues its new-found dominance in the province, followed by the Bloc (23%), while the Grits (17%) and Tories (13%) struggle to compete. The Green Party has just 1% of the vote in Quebec.

Thinking about the performance of Stephen Harper as Prime Minister, nearly half (47%) of Canadians `approve' (15% strongly/33% somewhat) of his performance, up 5 points since last month. In contrast, the other half (53%) of Canadians `disapprove' (28% strongly/24% somewhat) of the way that Stephen Harper is handling his job as Prime Minister, down 5 points. One percent (1%) doesn't know either way. The Prime Minister's approval rating is highest in his home province of Alberta (71%), and remains high in Saskatchewan and Manitoba (58%) and British Columbia (57%), but is significantly lower in Ontario (48%), Atlantic Canada (43%) and Quebec (29%).

More specifically, reflecting on the Prime Minister's handling on what he considers to be the key file of his government - the economy - nearly six in ten (56%) `approve' (12% strongly/44% somewhat) of the federal government's overall management of the Canadian economy (up 4 points), while four in ten (43%) `disapprove' (14% strongly/29% somewhat) of it (down 4 points), and 1% doesn't know. Approval levels are highest in Alberta (74%), followed by those living in British Columbia (69%), Saskatchewan and Manitoba (69%), Ontario (57%) and Atlantic Canada (55%), while just four in ten (38%) Quebecers feel the same way.

Overall, Canadians are evenly split on whether they believe that things in this country are headed in the `right direction' (48%, up 1 point) or off on the `wrong track' (49%, down 1 point), while 3% are unsure. Those in the west - Alberta (69%), Saskatchewan and Manitoba (58%) and British Columbia (54%)--are considerably more likely than those living in the East - Ontario (50%), Atlantic Canada (44%) and Quebec (30%) - to think that the country is on the right track.

(Click to enlarge image)

These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted on behalf of Postmedia News and Global Television from May 8 to 10, 2012. For the survey, a representative randomly-selected sample of 1,052 adult Canadians was interviewed by telephone, and 1,009 interviews were conducted online via the Ipsos I-say panel. Ipsos merged the two sample sources and employed weighting to balance demographics and ensure that the sample's composition reflected that of the adult population according to Census data. A survey with an unwieghted probability sample of this size and a 100% response rate would have an estimated margin of error of sample of 1772 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error would be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to, methodology change, coverage error and measurement error.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Darrell Bricker
CEO
Ipsos Reid
Public Affairs
416.324.2001
[email protected]

About Ipsos Reid

Ipsos Reid is Canada's market intelligence leader, the country's leading provider of public opinion research, and research partner for loyalty and forecasting and modelling insights. With operations in eight cities, Ipsos Reid employs more than 600 research professionals and support staff in Canada. The company has the biggest network of telephone call centres in the country, as well as the largest pre-recruited household and online panels. Ipsos Reid's marketing research and public affairs practices offer the premier suite of research vehicles in Canada, all of which provide clients with actionable and relevant information. Staffed with seasoned research consultants with extensive industry-specific backgrounds, Ipsos Reid offers syndicated information or custom solutions across key sectors of the Canadian economy, including consumer packaged goods, financial services, automotive, retail, and technology & telecommunications. Ipsos Reid is an Ipsos company, a leading global survey-based market research group.

To learn more, please visit www.ipsos.ca.

About Ipsos

Ipsos is an independent market research company controlled and managed by research professionals. Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos has grown into a worldwide research group with a strong presence in all key markets. In October 2011 Ipsos completed the acquisition of Synovate. The combination forms the world's third largest market research company.

With offices in 84 countries, Ipsos delivers insightful expertise across six research specializations: advertising, customer loyalty, marketing, media, public affairs research, and survey management.

Ipsos researchers assess market potential and interpret market trends. They develop and build brands. They help clients build long-term relationships with their customers. They test advertising and study audience responses to various media and they measure public opinion around the globe.

Ipsos has been listed on the Paris Stock Exchange since 1999 and generated global revenues of e1,363 billion (1.897 billion USD) in 2011.

Visit www.ipsos-na.com to learn more about Ipsos' offerings and capabilities.