Shifting Perspectives: Getting to Know the New Canada

You think you know Canada. But you don't. Because in the universities, colleges and high schools you attended, you were taught by people wearing blinders. In the newspaper columns and blogs you read, and on the television news you watch, commentators are talking about what they no longer understand. Canada's authors and playwrights, poets and musicians celebrate a country that no longer exists.

The people I'm talking about are found in the classrooms, boardrooms and newsrooms in the big cities of Ontario and Quebec. Until very recently they controlled the political and cultural levers of our country. They share a common set of assumptions about Canada: that our best days are behind us, that we are comprised of three major population groups - French, English and Aboriginal, that all power resides in the big cities of Ontario and Quebec, and the rest of the country doesn't matter much.

The country they are talking about is an illusion. Canada has changed, but their understanding of it hasn't.

Canada by Numbers

I'm going to challenge this out-of-date story of Canada with a new story told in numbers. What's perplexing to me is that these numbers are not in dispute and are all easy to find. But, for some reason, maybe it's denial or nostalgia, we pay little attention to them. And, not paying attention to them creates blind spots which lead to mistakes and missed opportunities. If you're running a business, working in government, or are in any way engaged with the public, you need to listen to this story. It's about the new reality of Canada.

It's time to open our eyes to this new reality. Let's start with our first number 1.7. - 1.7 is the average number of children a Canadian woman has today during her fertile years. To have a sustainable, healthy population we need at least 2.1 - one to replace you, one to replace your partner, and a little bit extra for those who won't or can't have kids. At just 1.7, we're almost half a baby short.

Why are birthrates dropping in Canada and so many other countries? The baby decline is driven by changing choices for families created by a combination of urbanization and education. On the farm, children are an economic asset. In the city, kids are an expense. Educated and urbanized parents have fewer kids. And, Canada is a VERY urbanized country. Over 80% of us live in cities and towns. In fact, the last decade in which half of us lived in rural areas was the 1920s.

Having a low birthrate is a huge problem. Let's take the case of Japan. Its birthrate is just 1.4. They are MORE than half a baby short. In 2012 Japan's population was just over 127 million. By 2050 it will drop by 25%. And, the remaining Japanese are getting older every year. An aging population is an expensive population. More money is needed for increasing health care and pension expenses. And, since most people are counting on selling their home to pay for their retirement, who will be the buyers in Japan?

The effects of birth rates are shown in data from Statistics Canada (Figure 1). Consider the Canadian population in 1961; arguably the last year of the Baby Boom. Up the center of the chart are ages, and the graph shows the number of Canadians at that age in 1961. Men are on the left, and women are on the right. This is a healthy, expanding population - there are lots of children being born to support and replace the people at the top of the pyramid.

Now look at Canada's population in 2011 (Figure 2). Our pyramid has become a vase. That big bulge you see in the middle is the baby boom. You'll also notice it bulges out more in the middle than at the bottom of the pyramid. This is the Japanese problem.

These two charts show a potential population crisis. Yet, Canada has the fastest growing population in the G8 (Figure 3). Why is this? In a word, IMMIGRATION.

Immigration Nation

Canada now attracts about 300,000 immigrants a year, every year. This is more per capita than any other major developed country. To put this into context, a new Toronto arrives every decade - and we've been seeing this level of immigration for at least two decades. There's no sign it will stop.

In 2010 the UN said that 214M people lived outside their country of birth - but only about 3% are refugees. This means that people are moving for economic advancement. Fortunately for us, Canada is one of their top destinations.

This is the emergence of a new, mobile global middle class. They are ready to move, and have the skills to hit the ground running. Canada's big advantage is that they see us as a successful and stable country. And, they also see us as tolerant of those coming from outside of our founding cultures.

Our new immigrants are definitely outside of the founding English, French and Aboriginal cultures. Where are they coming from? Compare immigration sources for Canada for 1970 and 2010 (Figure 4). As you can see, our new immigrants don't look like our founding cultures or even like previous waves of immigrants. They are mostly from the Philippines, India and China. They are less Atlantic and more Pacific in their orientation, and they are much more likely to be visible minorities.

A myth I'd like to dispel immediately is that most of our newer immigrants are Muslim. While Islam is the fastest growing religion in Canada, it's still only 3% of our population. And, when we look at immigrants coming to Canada over the last five years, only 17% report their religion as Islam. Nearly half of our new immigrants report their religion as Christian. So, in truth, we're being swamped by a wave of Christian immigrants.

Floundering Founders?

Returning to the nostalgic vision of Canada, immigration is really challenging the idea that we are comprised of three major population groups - English, French and Aboriginal. And, that these groups will forever define our culture.

Of the three founding cultures, the one having the hardest time maintaining its position is Aboriginal Canadians. There are just over 600,000 Status Indians in Canada today, which doesn't include Metis and Inuit peoples, and only about 300,000 live on reserves - that's the equivalent of one year's worth of immigration. Yes, the aboriginal population is young and has a higher birthrate than the general population, but they start from a small base and their growth will slow over time with increased urbanization and education.

A similar predicament faces the other two major heritage groups - English and French. Their respective share of the Canadian population is also shrinking. What does this mean for important national goals like bilingualism? Truth be told, only 17.5% of Canadians report that they can carry on a conversation in both French and English. My research shows that the number of Canadians who believe they can do their job equally well in the other official language is less than 10%.

Bilingualism hit a wall in 2011 because new immigrants, who mostly adopt English as their preferred official language, are driving our population growth. So, how are we going to maintain a bilingual public sector in Canada which is capable of providing services in both official languages from coast to coast to coast? And, do we really believe that a public service drawn from such a narrow segment of the population can adequately serve Canadians in the future? No wonder the Harper Government had such a hard time finding bilingual Supreme Court Justices and a bilingual Auditor General. It's only going to get harder in the future.

Dial 905 or Go West

Much of this wouldn't matter if the immigrants choosing Canada decided to move equally across the country. But, that's not happening. They are moving to where the jobs are - that's to Toronto's suburbs, especially the 905 area code, and Western Canada. So, while Canada used to be an Atlantic country it is increasingly a Pacific country. That's because most immigrants are now coming from Pacific nations and our population is shifting West. Figure 5 shows what this looks like.

Now, consider growth in Canada's major cities (Figure 6). Take a look at Montreal and Calgary. These levels of growth create all sorts of challenges for both places. For Montreal, it's not having enough people, for Calgary it's having maybe too many. Just for fun in this chart - and, to bust another myth, here's the percentage of people in each city aged 65 or more on the right. As you can see, the oldest city population is Montreal, not Vancouver. When considering older Canadians you should also keep in mind that women out-live men by an average of five years. Older, single women are a growing part of our population and a key segment for both marketers and governments to think about.

So, where does this bring us as a nation? A country that was once white is becoming brown. A country that was once part of the Atlantic world is becoming part of the Pacific world. The provinces and groups that mattered most don't matter as much anymore. The country's centre has shifted west, and power has shifted with it. In fact, power is now shared by two groups: Westerners and immigrant middle class residents of the 905.

Marketing Lessons

Let's talk about some marketing related impacts of the changes we've been discussing. Over the past few years I've had the privilege of speaking to several groups of dairy farmers about challenges in their industry. One of them is getting Canadians to drink more milk. Given what I know about immigration, I was curious to find out how changing population patterns would impact future milk consumption. So, I typed the following search term into Google - "milk and Asian culture". Bottom line - there is little cows' milk in Asian culture. They use it sparingly and only as an ingredient. When I mentioned this in my presentation it was greeted with stunned silence. If they had thought about this issue, it certainly wasn't top of mind. These are the types of blind spots that are created by not understanding how our population is changing.

Here's another example. I recently did a study that showed that 80% of new Canadians planned to be around the water in the summertime. But, nearly one in five also said they can't swim. This compares to only 4% of Canadians born here. The same could apply to other outdoor or wilderness activities that are quintessentially Canadian, from hiking and camping, to canoeing and kayaking. All require skills many immigrants lack. So, what Canadian sporting goods company or non-profit focusing on safety has launched a campaign to teach new Canadians to swim or handle a canoe? Such a campaign could both save lives and be good for business.

Enjoying the Canadian outdoors is also what cottage ownership is all about. Right now, sitting on your dock with a beer still is a very white, old-Canadian pastime.

Who owns cottages these days? Given rising real estate prices and capital gains taxes you have to be pretty well off. Yet for those who bought into the market decades ago, or who inherited their property, the cottage remains the treasured retreat for ordinary folks who have more generous and structured vacations: public servants, firefighters, police officers, and teachers. Eventually though, they'll want to sell. And, they'll have to find people who can afford to pay their price. Their buyers won't likely be people like them. The version of them today simply can't afford it. So, unless cottagers figure out how to interest affluent new Canadians in the great outdoors, they will run out of buyers.

This isn't only about cottage real estate. It's about real estate all over the country. What about larger multi-family homes? What about lucky and unlucky numbers for street addresses? What about feng shui? You don't know about these things? You'd better learn. All are now factors in valuing how family homes are bought and sold in Canada.

Embrace the Change!

Does your business sell to every part of Canada except Toronto? Of course it doesn't. What company would ignore the largest market in the country? But, if you aren't tailoring your products and services to new Canadians, that's exactly what you're doing. Fifty percent of Toronto residents were born outside of Canada, along with over 40% of Vancouver residents, and almost 40% of Calgary residents. Let's remember that at current immigration rates, a new Toronto is arriving every ten years.

I'd like to conclude with a challenge for you. Throw away the old playbook and embrace the new Canada. You'll be very glad you did. It is based on the truth of numbers, not on the mythology of our past. Who are we becoming? In my view, Canada is transforming into a remarkable, post-modern country whose best days lie ahead of it, and whose wealth and tolerance will make us the envy of the world. Those who appreciate how we are changing will realize the opportunities that it brings. Those who don't, will simply have to step aside.

Darrell Bricker is Chief Executive Officer of Ipsos Public Affairs, the world's leading social and corporate reputation research firm with offices in 30 countries and a staff of 600 research professionals.

A highly accomplished researcher and former Director of Research in the office of Canada's Prime Minister, Darrell has authored several books, including his latest, The Big Shift (with John Ibbitson, released in February 2013 with Harper Collins), which examines changes in the demographics, politics, business, and culture of Canada and what it all means for the country's future. In September 2013, Darrell shared some of these insights and perspectives at TEDxToronto.