Right-wing populism helps some politicians, hurts others in 2025

Taking pages from the Make America Great Again (MAGA) playbook is leading to both victories and defeats.

Politicians ripping a page, or five, from U.S. President Donald Trump have seen mixed results in 2025 with some leaders in Australia and Canada stumbling while those in Japan, France and the U.K. are seeing more success. Meanwhile, Germany ultimately got a centre-right chancellor, while the Romanians voted for the centrist candidate and the Polish tacked in a more nationalist direction,

As our Populism Report from earlier this year notes, there isn’t one ingredient that inspires the masses but often it’s a stew of factors, such as worry about crime, immigration, the economy, taxes and the elites, that leads to a swing of the pendulum. 

Right-wing populist politicians also often serve up a large dollop of nostalgia to a populace hungry for a seemingly simpler time. And our populism polling finds, many have consistently thought their country was in decline for years now, with 57% on average globally (and a majority in 23 of 30 countries) thinking this in 2025.

Below, we dive into why right-wing populism is working for some, and not others, as this year that has been dominated by Trump’s global trade war enters the final stretch.

1. Swinging to the right? 

Back when centrist Emmanuel Macron was first elected as France’s president more than eight years ago, Trump was just a few months into his first presidential term.

In May 2017 Macron was the newly-minted leader with close to one in three (31%) of the French approving of him, that rose to a high of 44% in the early days of the coronavirus pandemic in March 2020. This September his approval rating fell to a record low of 17% and now sits at 19%.

“After more than eight years in power, it’s almost impossible for a French president to stay popular. François Mitterrand’s and Jacques Chirac’s second terms were both difficult, and Macron is facing an especially tough environment,” says Mathieu Gallard, Research Director for Ipsos in France.

“And many see Macron as having caused — or at least accelerated — this instability himself, through his unexpected decision to dissolve the National Assembly and call snap elections in June 2024.”

Last month yet another prime minister appeared to have come and gone, but President Sébastien Lecornu has since taken back his resignation and is hitting pause on controversial pension reforms.

Things are not très bien.

Throughout Macron’s tenure, which must end by May 2027, right-wing leader Marine Le Pen, who is banned from running in elections until 2030, has been a thorn in his side. Like Trump, who called Le Pen’s conviction earlier this year a ‘witch hunt’, has often tapped into a patriotic vein as her ‘France-first’ approach connects with some frustrated voters right now.

Le Pen and President of the National Rally Jordan Bardella (both at 33%) are the top picks for the next President of the Republic, followed by fellow right-winger Marion Maréchal (24%), though no one leader is currently polling well ahead of the pack.

“The main concerns of the French — the cost of living and the state of the welfare system — should logically benefit the left. But for now, the left simply isn’t in a position to take advantage of this,” says Gallard.

“As a result, the leaders such as Le Pen and Bardella are benefiting more from the rise in concerns about immigration and insecurity — and, more broadly, from the anti-establishment mood that’s spreading across a larger share of the French public.”

2. Make Britain Great Again? 

Frustrated voters looking for populist protectionist politicians goes well beyond France.

Across the English Channel, Reform UK Leader Nigel Farage has made his links to Trump explicit. He recently visited the president at the White House and vowed to ‘Make Britain Great Again’ at his party’s annual conference.

The British twist on MAGA politics looks to be working.

For the first time slightly more Brits (33%) say the right-wing Farage would make a better PM than centrist Starmer (30%).

“There are some good numbers … for Reform UK, with the public having more confidence in them on the economy and immigration than other parties and Nigel Farage leading Keir Starmer on who the public would prefer as Prime Minister,” says Keiran Pedley, Director of UK Politics at Ipsos.

Farage has tapped into the zeitgeist.

His proposed plans, which echo Trump’s immigration policies, have him deporting 600,000 migrants if he were elected to 10 Downing Street. Meanwhile, Starmer has tried to link the small boat crossings to his political foe.

Since Starmer was elected in July 2024, immigration has once again become a hotly debated topic with concern rising 15 percentage points from 29% right before his decisive victory. Starmer has failed to dampen the concern as the latest wave of Ipsos’ What Worries the World polling finds that out of 30 countries Brits are now the most concerned about immigration control with 44% saying it’s a key concern for Great Britain.

So far stoking fears about migrants appears to be having mixed results in Europe, with the Welsh recently rejecting Farage (and Labour), while the Irish recently opted for a left-wing president. The Dutch, meanwhile, have now opted for a more centrist path after swinging far-right in 2023.

3. The right rises in the Land of the Rising Sun

Increased focus on immigration is also driving heated debate in Japan. 

Worry about immigration control has risen 10 points year-over-year with almost one-quarter (24%) now saying it’s a key issue for their country. At the same time, 80% (+8 pp since October 2024) of the Japanese say their country is on the wrong track and 89% (+17 pp) think the current economic situation in Japan is bad. 

Sohei Kamiya, the leader of the far-right Sanseitō party, was able to harness the gloomy mood amid the rice crisis into 14 seats in Japan’s upper house this July.

Like some leaders in France and the U.K. Kamiya has put his own twist on a Trump phrase, with a ‘Japanese First’ message warning of a “silent invasion of foreigners.”

Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, generally seen as centre-right, recently resigned in the wake of the election upset after less than a year in office. Sanae Takaichi, who aims to be Japan’s Iron Lady in the vein of U.K.’s former Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, was voted in by parliament as her country’s first female leader and has just met with Trump.

The shock of the World Health Organization (WHO) declaring a global pandemic at the start of this decade, followed by a rise in immigration and rice prices in more recent years, appear to have sowed the seeds of discontent and a further shift to the right the East Asian country that’s really feeling the pain of America’s tariff strategy these days.

4. Elbows up

The Canadian economy has also been hit hard by Trump’s trade war.

Voters in Canada, though, have reacted differently than their peers in Japan so far.

Pierre Poilivere, leader of the Conservative Party of Canada who faces a leadership review in January, saw his solid lead over the Liberal Party of Canada evaporate as his MAGA-inspired slogans abruptly went from strength to weakness after the U.S. president repeatedly suggested his Northern neighbors become the 51st state as a cross-border trade war saw Canadians get their elbows up.

And while Generation Zers* are seen as a driving force behind the MAGA 2.0 movement in the U.S. Poilievre’s right-wing pithy populism doesn’t appear to be currently connecting with the youngest voters in the Great White North.

The more centrist policies of Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, also leader of the Liberals, had him winning the race with Gen Zers as a new session of Parliament kicked off last month while Poilievre was appealing more to Millennial Canadians while the battle for older voters (Generation Xers and Baby Boomers) remains tighter in a country still fighting off both annexation and tariff threats.

5. High costs Down Under

The Australians also rejected a right-leaning leader earlier this year.

Like Poilievre, Peter Dutton saw his Trump-tinged ideas, such as an Australian DOGE, quickly become a liability in the wake of Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ on April 2.

Center-left Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese was arguably handed a gift by Trump as some of the focus (at least temporarily) seemed to shift away from national issues to global ones.

Aussies, though, are still feeling the pinch.

The cost of living was, and continues to, loom above all other concerns for people in Australia since 2022 with 57% saying it’s the top concern, followed by housing (43%) this September.

And while Albanese’s re-election led to Dutton’s loss and resignation, other right wing leaders have filled the void. Andrew Hastie, like Dutton before him, is focusing on immigration saying Australians feel like ‘strangers’ in their own home.

“While the electorate were clearly unimpressed with Dutton in this year’s election, the ‘housing crisis’ is a hot topic and many have leapt on the link with immigration,” says David Elliott, Deputy Managing Director of Public Affairs for Ipsos in Australia.

“When talking to Australians in our qualitative projects we are often hearing people make this link when raising concerns about housing. Aside from this, we are seeing some in Australia, such as Hastie, following the populist playbook they believe has been used successfully by so many elsewhere.”

The defeat of politicians like Dutton and Poilievre in the immediate wake of Trump’s trade war may well prove to have been a blip.

Right-wingers have recently made inroads in France, Japan and the U.K. While Argentina’s President Javier Milei, backed by Trump, just proved he’s still popular after winning midterm elections. Chileans, who tacked left in 2021 but may go far-right in the upcoming presidential election, will decide which way they will go now with almost two-thirds (63%) of people in the South American country seeing crime/violence as the most pressing issue currently facing Chile.

The majority of people in 24 of 30 countries in Ipsos’ monthly What Worries the World polling, including 68% in Chile, currently say things in their country are on the wrong track. This serves as both a warning and an opportunity for politicians around the globe.

Because as Trump’s Republican party proved last November when Americans voted out the incumbent Democratic party disenchantment with current leaders can prove to be the perfect time for populists promising to put their country first and make it great again.

Melissa Dunne is a senior data journalist with Ipsos and is based in Canada.

*Generation Z (born between 1996-2012), Millennials (born between 1980-1995), Generation X (born between 1966-1979), Baby Boomers (born between 1945-1965) and Silent Generation (born between 1925-1944).