The future of public services
 |
 |
| Cameron Garrett Research Manager
|
Michael Clemence Engagement Manager
|
In conversation with Trinh Tu, Managing Director, Gideon Skinner, Head of Politics and Keiran Pedley, Director of Politics
The future of public services
Britons are glum about the future. For nearly two years most of the public have told us repeatedly that they think the country is heading in the wrong direction1.
Their verdict on our public services is equally gloomy. Specifically, seven in ten (70%) do not think that the government’s policies will improve the state of public services in the long term. This is the highest percentage recorded since Ipsos began asking the question over two decades ago2.
The vast majority of Britons are also negative about the government’s performance on public services. This is particularly true for the NHS where four in five (82%) say that Rishi Sunak’s government has done a bad job, and two in three are similarly negative about the government’s performance on education (64%), crime (67%), and taxation and public spending (71%)3.
This pessimism is perhaps unsurprising. 2023 has seen a series of strikes across the public sector (many of which the public supported), and stories of record-long waiting lists in the NHS, prisons at bursting point, local authorities declaring bankruptcy, and school ceilings literally collapsing across the country. Some could accuse the metaphors of being too on the nose.
The recent Public Service Performance Tracker from the Institute for Government makes for a depressing read. Performance in most services is worse than before the pandemic and considerably worse than in 2010, at the start of austerity. They suggest that public services are in this situation after years of successive governments’ short-term policy making, underinvestment in capital and staff, and the subsequent high turnover within teams meaning that many services are lacking in institutional knowledge4. The public expect performance to only get worse over the next few years.
The next election
Public services matter. Many tell us that the parties’ policies on these issues are very important in helping them decide how to vote5. How the main parties plan to remedy the current situation will undoubtedly set the agenda for the next election.
The Labour leader, Sir Keir Starmer, has already used his most recent conference speech to stress the importance of “rebuilding a crumbling public realm”6. At the moment, the polls indicate that voters will give him the chance, as Labour have retained a healthy double-digit lead over the Conservatives for over a year now.
Traditionally, the Labour party are more trusted than the Conservatives to manage the nation’s public services. For example, when voters are asked who has the better education policies, Sir Keir’s party have a 14-point lead over the Prime Minister’s. On healthcare policies they have a 22-point lead7.
However, despite these strong polling leads, there is still scepticism over whether Labour have the answers that Britain’s public services need. Much of that is borne from the economic reality that any government in place after the next election will have to deal with.
The economic reality
When we ask the public what they think the biggest problem facing the country is, they resoundingly respond: “the economy”.8
There is good reason for this. As Britain emerges from a once-in-a-century pandemic and into an unstable geopolitical environment, there are a myriad of problems with our national finances. The country faces a period of historically high taxation, high debt, high inflation (albeit falling), and the phrase now commonly used by politicians across the spectrum: low economic growth.
Britons are not expecting any quick fixes either. Indeed, the majority (55%) expect the general economic condition of the country to worsen further over the next twelve months in the build up to an election.9
However, there is a clear tension in public opinion which any party in power will have to navigate. As while the public acknowledge the country’s economic woes, over half (53%) also think the government should be spending more on public services, which they think is much more likely to happen under Labour than the Conservatives.10 There is definitely very little appetite for cutting public spending, but not a lot of enthusiasm for tax rises or increases in the national debt either. Nevertheless, people actually expect taxes to go up whichever party is in power11 – albeit they would much prefer it if they were ones that don’t affect them personally.12
They are likely correct in their doubts that the spending taps will be turned on. In the build-up to the Chancellor’s Autumn statement, the Institute for Fiscal Studies have published their renowned Green Budget, which states “there is no room for unfunded tax cuts or spending increases - this year or next”, as they warn of an upcoming recession in the first half of 2024.13 It suggests that with pre-existing commitments on health, defence and childcare, and next-to-no-growth in day-to-day public sector spending, most services will in fact experience cuts.
The long term for public services
In the face of so much economic uncertainty and the steady drumbeat of “unprecedented” events in recent years, minds across business, government and society have become focused on how we can better anticipate future change.
Long-term planning is in vogue – whether it is our Net Zero targets, the NHS Long Term Plan, or the ten-year National AI Strategy.
Macro forces – large-scale, observable and to some extent predictable drivers of change – are good indicators of the challenges that UK public services will face.
- We know that the country will be older. The median age of the UK population was 39.5 in 2020, and this is projected to rise to 44.9 by 2050.14 Preparing for an older population is one of the key drivers behind the challenges facing the UK. For public services, it will mean more strain on health and social care services, and a shrinking workforce which generates less money through taxation to support the newly retired.
- We can also expect the UK population to be more diverse. The 2021 Census for England and Wales revealed a population that is 81.7% from White backgrounds, four points lower than in 2011.15 The acceleration is more pronounced at younger ages; the DfE school census for 2020/21 showed 65% of English school children were white British, ten points lower than the headline rate for the overall population16. The public sector will need to ensure they provide inclusive services, which can flex to respond to the needs and preferences of different communities. Increased diversity will also demand an awareness of inequalities, and how public services can help close these (for example, access to education and healthcare).
- We also know the world will be wetter and wilder. Although heat – including the UK’s first over 40C+ temperature last year – occupies the headlines, a more energetic global climate driven by climate change will result in heavier rain and more floods, which will influence the future of UK infrastructure, housing, food security and many other areas. Public services will often be on the frontline of responding to extreme weather in communities, and they will need to identify local priorities and invest in resilient infrastructure accordingly.
- There is going to be a huge acceleration in disruptive technology and care is going to be needed in how its implemented. In previous years, the UK stood out from European peers as a more tech-forward society. Yet Ipsos Global Trends data shows the proportion who fear that technical progress is destroying their lives has risen from 44% in 1999 to 58% - a twenty-year high – in 2023. As debates about the use of generative AI enter the mainstream and public services think about how it can help with their own efficiencies, UK public opinion approaches from a more critical place than it might have done just a few years ago. There are situations where the public are more comfortable, for example, tasks where there are clear benefits such as early disease detection or improving traffic flow. However, on the whole they are still wary, and as digitally enabled services are rolled out, slow public uptake threatens to act as bulwark.
What does this mean for public services?
As parties draft their manifestos ahead of the much-speculated next general election, they will need to balance the current restraints of the public purse with an urgent need to start planning for these inevitable challenges that face the public sector.
This latest edition of Ipsos’ Understanding Society brings together an array of policy experts and the most up-to-date public opinion to understand the type of public service reform which might be needed and whether there is appetite for it.
It is clear there are big challenges with no easy answers hanging over the public sector, from declining ratings of the police, skills shortages, waiting lists in the NHS, to the increasingly visible impacts of climate change.
Across discussions about these challenges involving the country’s healthcare system, workforce, policing, artificial intelligence, climate change, local government, and transition towards net zero, we have identified five common themes:
- The importance of fairness is repeatedly stressed, whether looking at procedural justice in the police, targeting skills support for those who most need it, ensuring a just adaptation approach to net zero, or when weighing up the potential benefits and risks of Artificial Intelligence.
- The need to engage the public in developing solutions. There is an exciting opportunity to use deliberative techniques to involve the public in policy creation. For example, this can uncover long-term solutions to some of the most complex problems facing the NHS, the police and identifying a path to rolling-out climate adaption measures.
- Local place-based policy making is back in vogue. The centre needs to understand the varying demands of different local areas and tailor their approach accordingly, developing policy in partnership with those on the ground – as we see has been successful in the West Midlands Combined Authority skills trailblazer deals to ensure a responsiveness to regional economic conditions.
- Public services should not be trying to solve complex challenges in silos. For example, regional skills policy should be developed alongside housing and health policies to boost employment in certain areas. Or there is an obvious overlap between social care and the NHS, or the need for local authorities to work with infrastructure operators to mitigate against extreme climate events.
- Public services need to embrace new technology – and bring the public along. Artificial Intelligence is a major issue which society as a whole will need to grapple with, but it has specific implications for public services. We must understand the potential benefits offered to services but weigh these against key risks. But it is clear there are a myriad specific use cases where digital technology can improve services and reduce burdens, for example, implementing a digital triage in the NHS.
However, as we think about the future, we should remember that attempts to predict it are subject to many pitfalls. This is especially true in our modern “polycrisis” moment, where multiple and overlapping crises have unpredictable impacts on each other that can exacerbate our situation further.
Instead, we should think about how we prepare for multiple futures. The informed conversations about the potential futures facing the UK and its public services which we’ve had with policy experts, can help us today by allowing space to talk about numerous future visions. It can help us tomorrow by identifying the headwinds and tailwinds on the way to our preferred vision of the future, as well as the wildcard events that threaten to derail our progress.
References
1 Ipsos (September 2023). Ipsos UK Political Pulse
2 Ipsos (February-March 2023). Ipsos Political Monitor
3 Ipsos (July 2023). Ipsos Political Monitor
4 Institute for Government (2023). Performance Tracker 2023
5 Ipsos (April 2023). Ipsos UK Political Pulse: Local Elections
6 Labour.org.uk (2023). Keir Starmer's speech at Labour Conference
7 Ipsos (October 2023). Ipsos Political Monitor
8 Ipsos (September 2023). Ipsos Issues Index
9 Ipsos (October 2023). Ipsos Political Monitor
10 Ipsos (February-March 2023). Ipsos Political Monitor
11 Ipsos (August 2023). Ipsos UK Political Polling: The Rest is Politics
12 Ipsos (June 2023). Ipsos Perceptions of tax polling
14 O'Neill, Aaron (2023). United Kingdom: Median age of the population from 1950 to 2100, statista
