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  • Boris Johnson slight favourite with public if Kemi Badenoch falters – but half say none of the above or don’t know

Boris Johnson slight favourite with public if Kemi Badenoch falters – but half say none of the above or don’t know

Among 2024 Conservative voters, Boris Johnson is the clear favourite to succeed Kemi Badenoch, with 24% choosing the former PM. However, 2024 Reform UK voters are split between Johnson and Robert Jenrick.

New polling from Ipsos in the UK reveals that, if Kemi Badenoch was to no longer be leader of the Conservative party, Boris Johnson would be her preferred successor among 2024 Conservative voters. However, the former PM and current Leader of the Opposition are virtually tied when those who voted for the party last year are asked who would be best to lead the party.

Badenoch’s premiership: a hard sell

  • When asked about the top positives for a Badenoch premiership six in ten say none or don’t know: When asked about the potential positives of Kemi Badenoch becoming Prime Minister, the public is not convinced, with four in ten (41%) selecting "None of these" from a list of positive statements and 21% saying they don’t know. The most selected positives were that she would get immigration under control (13%) and that the economy would grow (12%). Among 2024 Conservative voters, the most selected positives were that the Conservatives have a better record running the country than Labour (34%), and that the economy would grow more (33%).
  • Legacy of distrust dominates negatives: The primary concern about a potential Badenoch premiership among Britons overall is that "The Conservatives can’t be trusted after their previous record running the country" (30%). This sentiment is the leading concern for both 2024 Labour voters (44%) and 2024 Reform UK voters (35%). 2024 Conservative voters are most likely to say that “she is too inexperienced as a politician (21%).
2024 Labour and Reform UK voters both think that the main negative if Kemi Badenoch became Prime Minister would be that the Conservatives can't be trusted after their previous record running the country

The lingering appeal of Boris Johnson

  • Public sceptical of any alternatives to Badenoch, with Tory voters split: When the public is asked who would be the best leader for the Conservatives, the most frequent responses are "None of them" (27%) and "Don't know" (25%). Despite this, Boris Johnson remains the most named politician at 9%. Among those who voted Conservatives in 2024, a clear split emerges, with Boris Johnson (17%) and Kemi Badenoch (16%) in a statistical tie.
When given a list of Conservative politicians, the public are most likely to say none of them/don't know in terms of who would do the best job as leader of the Conservatives
  • Johnson the favourite to succeed Badenoch among 2024 Tory voters: Should Badenoch’s leadership come to an end, Boris Johnson is the clear preference among 2024 Conservative voters to succeed her, with 24% choosing him. This is significantly ahead of James Cleverly (14%) and Rishi Sunak(12%).
2024 Conservative voters are divided between Boris Johnson and Kemi Badenoch for who would be the best leader of the Conservatives if Kemi Badenoch was no longer leader. Reform UK voters say none of them, followed by Robert Jenrick.

Who do the public think would do a good job as PM?

  • Negative ratings for leaders: None of the leaders polled inspire a majority of positive sentiment on who would do a good job as PM. Nigel Farage has the highest "good job" rating at 32%, but also a high "bad job" rating of 46% (net -14). Keir Starmer is seen as doing a good job by a quarter of Britons (24%) and a bad job by 54% (net -28). Kemi Badenoch is rated as someone that would do a good job by 21% and bad by 47% (net -26).
  • But Starmer continues to lead head-to-head matchups: When asked who would make a better Prime Minister, 29% of the public choose Keir Starmer compared to 19% for Kemi Badenoch, giving Starmer a 10 ppt lead. Similarly, Starmer leads Nigel Farage by 8 ppts (33% to 25%). When the choice is between the two main opposition figures, Farage has a slight edge over Badenoch, with 24% preferring him for Prime Minister versus 19% for the Conservative leader. However, in all scenarios, a large number of Britons (between 33% and 48%) state there would be "no difference" or that they prefer "neither".

Commenting on the findings, Keiran Pedley, Director of UK Politics at Ipsos said:

This latest polling shows the scale of the challenge for the Conservative opposition. Not only does Kemi Badenoch trail Keir Starmer in who the public think would be the better Prime Minister, but the party's recent record in government is still the biggest single barrier for voters. Even among their own 2024 voters, there is no consensus on the path forward, with many still looking back to Boris Johnson as a potential leader. While Nigel Farage also faces high negative ratings, he currently holds a narrow advantage over Kemi Badenoch in the eyes of the public, adding another complex dynamic to the opposition landscape.

Notes to editors: 

  • Ipsos interviewed a representative sample of 1,150 adults aged 16+ across Great Britain. Polling was conducted online between the 25th-28th July 2025.   
  • Data are weighted to match the profile of the population. All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error.

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