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Expectations Of Future Government

Election Week poll for The Economist, including questions on approval of possible government policies and support for likely party leadership candidates

8 June 2001

MORI interviewed 1,010 adults aged 18+.
Interviews were conducted by telephone on 4-5 June 2001.
Data are weighted to the known population profile
Results are based on all respondents unless otherwise stated.
Where percentages do not add up to exactly 100% this may be due to computer rounding, the exclusion of "don't knows" or to multiple answers
Poll conducted by MORI on behalf of The Economist.

QV1 How do you intend to vote in your constituency at the General Election on June 7th? For the Conservative candidate, Labour candidate, Liberal Democrat candidate, Other party candidate? IN SCOTLAND: SNP, Scottish Nationalist candidate IN WALES: Plaid Cymru candidate [IF OTHER PARTY CANDIDATE]

QV1a Which party is that? [IF UNDECIDED OR REFUSED AT QV1]

QV2 Which party are you most inclined to support in your constituency? Base: All respondents 18+ (1,010)

Conservative	31%
Labour	43%
Liberal Democrats	20%
SNP	2%
Plaid Cymru	1%
Green Party	1%
Democratic/UKIP/Referendum Party	1%
Scottish Socialist Party	0%
Scottish Alliance	0%
Other	1%

Labour lead	+12%

Would not vote	9%
Undecided	8%
Refused	5%

QV1a Which party is that? [IF UNDECIDED OR REFUSED AT QV1]

QV2 Which party are you most inclined to support in your constituency? Base: All certain to vote (656)

Conservative	32%
Labour	41%
Liberal Democrats	20%
SNP	2%
Plaid Cymru	1%
Green Party	1%
Democratic/UKIP/Referendum Party	1%
Scottish Socialist Party	0%
Scottish Alliance	0%
Other	2%

Labour lead	+9%

Q3 Can you tell me how likely you are to get along to vote in the General Election?

	%
Certain to vote	64
Very likely to vote	12
Quite likely to vote	10
Not very likely to vote	4
Certain not to vote	9
Don't know	1

Base: All respondents 18+ (1,010) Likelihood of voting Long Term Trends

Q4 Have you definitely decided to vote for the [...] party or is there a chance you may change your mind before you vote? Base: All respondents 18+ naming a party

	All	Conservative	Labour	Liberal Democrats
	791	342	241	153
	%	%	%	%
Definitely decided	76	79	76	71
May change mind	23	20	23	28
Don't know	1	1	1	1

Q5a If you do change your mind about voting for the .... party, which party would you vote for instead? Base: All naming a party, who may change mind

	All	Lab	Con	Lib Dem
	191	72	55	44
	%	%	%	%
Conservative	13	17	13	23
Labour	22	0	22	52
Liberal Democrats	31	40	31	0
Scottish Nationalist Party	2	5	2	0
Plaid Cymru	1	2	1	0
Green Party	2	3	2	0
Referendum/UKIP/Democratic Party	*	0	*	0
Socialist Alliance	0	0	0	0
Scottish Socialist Party	1	3	1	0
Other	1	0	1	4
Would not vote	1	1	1	0
Undecided	25	26	25	21
Refused	1	3	1	0

Q6-13a I am now going to read out a list of policies that a new Labour Government might carry out. Please tell me whether you support or oppose each.

	Support	Oppose	Don't know
	%	%	%
Increase income tax to 50% for highest earners	57	33	9
Let secondary schools select pupils who are good at certain subjects	45	43	12
Have more NHS patients treated in private hospitals	69	25	6
Join the European Single Currency	27	58	15
Allow private companies to run state schools	23	62	14
Bring railways back into public ownership	72	19	10
Put up to £800 of taxpayers' money into an account for every new born child. They would be able to spend this money as they like when they are 18	38	53	9
Require companies to give fathers paid time off work when their children are born	67	29	4
Ban fox hunting	57	31	11

Q14 To what extent do you agree or disagree that, "This country should adopt a new voting system that would give parties seats in Parliament in proportion to their share of votes?"

	%
Strongly agree	28
Tend to agree	35
Neither agree nor disagree	10
Tend to disagree	9
Strongly disagree	11
Don't know	8

Agree	62
Disagree	19
Net agree	+43

Q15 If Labour wins the coming General Election, do you think Tony Blair should or should not step down as Prime Minister at some point during the next Parliament? IF SHOULD STEP DOWN When do you think he should step down?

	%
Immediately	7
Should step down before the end of 2001	4
Should step down between January - December 2002	3
Should step down between January - December 2003	2
Should step down between January - December 2004	1
Should step down after 2004	1
Should step down just before the next General Election	2

Should not step down	67
Don't know	14

Should	20
Should not	67

Q16 If Tony Blair were to step down as Prime Minister during the next Parliament, which one of the Labour politicians I am going to read out, if any, do you think should replace him as Prime Minister?

	All	All naming Labour
	1,010	342
	%	%
David Blunkett, the Secretary of State for Education and Employment	8	7
Gordon Brown, the Chancellor of the Exchequer	30	38
Stephen Byers, the Secretary of State for Social Security	2	2
Robin Cook, the Foreign Secretary	2	3
Alistair Darling, the Secretary of State for Social Security	1	*
Peter Mandelson, the MP for Hartlepool	2	1
Alan Milburn, the Health Secretary	2	1
John Prescott, the Deputy Prime Minister	13	18
Jack Straw, the Home Secretary	7	5
Other	2	2
None of these	14	7
Don't know	18	16

Q17 If the Conservatives lose the General Election, do you think William Hague should or should not step down as leader of the Conservative Party?

	All	All naming Conservative Party
	1,010	241
	%	%
Should	55	40
Should not	33	54
Don't know	13	6

Q18 If the Conservatives lose the General Election and William Hague steps down as party leader, which one of the politicians I am going to read out, if any, would you like to see lead the Conservative Party?

	All	All naming Conservative Party
	1,010	241
	%	%
Kenneth Clarke	15	10
Iain Duncan Smith	1	1
David Davis	*	0
Bill Emmott	*	*
Liam Fox	1	1
Francis Maude	1	2
Michael Portillo	18	29
John Redwood	4	4
Malcolm Rifkind	3	3
Margaret Thatcher	7	11
Ann Widdecombe	10	12
Other	2	4
None of these	12	6
Don't know	26	16

Q19 Which political party, if any, has impressed you most during the election campaign?

	All	Lab	Con	Lib Dem
	1,010	342	241	153
	%	%	%	%
Conservative	11	2	34	1
Labour	20	42	3	10
Liberal Democrats	30	30	21	62
Scottish Nationalist Party	1	1	1	0
Plaid Cymru	*	*	0	0
Green Party	1	0	0	1
Democratic/Referendum/UKIP party	*	0	2	0
Socialist Alliance	*	*	0	1
Scottish Socialist Party	0	0	0	0
Other	*	0	0	0
None of these	28	18	31	22
Don't know	9	7	9	3

Q20 Which one of these definitions, if any, comes closest to your political views?

	%
Old Labour	12
New Labour	29
One Nation Tory	11
Thatcherite Tory	9
Liberal	12
Social Democratic	7
Nationalist	1
Other	5
None of these	6
Don't know	8

Q21 If Labour wins the General Election on Thursday would you personally be happy or unhappy with this result?

	%
Happy	49
Unhappy	25
Neither	24
Don't know	3

Q22 Which party did you vote for at the last General Election, in May 1997? If you are not sure, or did not vote, please say so.

	%
Conservative	23
Labour	40
Liberal Democrat	11
Scot/Welsh Nationalist	1
Green	*
Referendum Party	1
Other	1
Did not vote	13
Too young	4
Can't remember	3
Refused	2

Q23 As far as you know, are you currently registered to vote? IF YES And are you registered to vote in your constituency, or are you registered to vote somewhere else?

	%
Yes, registered to vote - in this constituency	94
Yes, registered to vote - somewhere else	3
No, not registered to vote	2
Don't know	1

Q24 Have you voted by post or instructed a proxy to vote for you at the General Election on Thursday, or do you intend to do so?

	%
Yes, have voted by post	3
Yes, intend to vote by post	3
Yes, have instructed a proxy	1
No, neither	92
Don't know	1

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